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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s economy lost momentum in 2023. The external position weakened, with the current account shifting to a deficit and foreign reserve accumulation slowing. While inflation continued to ease, it remained elevated. Available data indicate a deterioration in the underlying fiscal positions of many countries. The near-term outlook points to stronger economic activity, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024, supported by elevated oil prices and a rebound in oil output. However, the end-June 2024 regional policy assurance on NFA––and, according to preliminary information, the end-December 2024 targets––were not met, indicating a deviation in reserves from the targeted path. Debt vulnerabilities have also worsened in some countries, as evidenced by the growing pressures in the regional government debt market. Following the strong commitment expressed at the extraordinary Heads of State Summit in December 2024 to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen regional institutions, all countries are expected to tackle fiscal slippages, restore fiscal prudence, and implement structural reforms to steer the region toward a more resilient medium-term outlook. This should help reduce risks to the capacity to repay the Fund. However, the projections remain uncertain, as the details of corrective measures and reforms are still being finalized between staff and national authorities.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economy recovered in 2024 as oil sector rebounded from its slump. However, fiscal consolidation efforts somewhat waned, auguring the start of a political cycle. Buffers built during the 2018–21 EFF—supported program are being eroded by fiscal slippages from higher capital expenditures and a slower fuel subsidy reform. Nevertheless, public debt relative to GDP declined in 2024, benefiting from high nominal GDP growth and debt repayments. High external debt service constrains development spending, while oil dependence represents a drag on sustainable growth. Inflation remains elevated, fueled by exchange rate depreciation, and import substitution measures that have restricted food supply. The National Development Plan 2023–27 remains the main element for the authorities’ diversification strategy.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
El Salvador has recovered well from the pandemic, supported by robust remittances and buoyant tourism flows, amid a sharp improvement in the country’s security situation. Inflation has fallen and the external imbalances have narrowed more recently, consistent with a gradual improvement in public finances and favorable terms of trade. In this context, sovereign spreads have come down sharply with recent debt buyback operations helping to ease near-term external financing needs. Despite recent progress, El Salvador’s macroeconomic imbalances remain significant, stemming from high fiscal deficits and debt, as well as low external and financial buffers, in the context of dollarization. Meanwhile, underlying productivity remains low, reflecting in part persistent social and infrastructure gaps, as well as a legacy of weak governance and transparency, which have discouraged investment. The Bukele administration is intent on focusing its second mandate on addressing pending macroeconomic and structural challenges and boosting economic growth, under an IMF-supported program.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Sri Lanka underwent a political transition with presidential and parliamentary elections in late 2024. The new authorities expressed commitment to the program. Reform efforts are bearing fruit with growth recovering, low inflation, increased revenue collection, and reserves accumulation. By end-2024, Sri Lanka’s real GDP is projected to have recovered about 40 percent of its loss incurred between 2018 and 2023. Nevertheless, the economy is still vulnerable, and restoration of debt and external sustainability depends on continued implementation of reforms.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Malaysia’s economic performance has significantly improved in 2024, supported by strong domestic and external demand. Disinflation is taking hold and external pressures have eased. The favorable economic conditions provide a window of opportunity to build macroeconomic policy buffers and accelerate structural reforms, especially as risks to growth are tilted to the downside amid an uncertain global outlook. Risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, including from global commodity price shocks and potential wage pressures.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Prudent macroeconomic policies have supported India’s economic resilience, with growth expected to recover from a recent softening and inflation expected to converge to target. Risks to the outlook include deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and a slower pace of domestic demand recovery.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Growth normalization after the 2022 FIFA World Cup continued with signs of activities strengthening more recently. Fiscal and external surpluses softened mainly due to lower hydrocarbon prices. Banks are healthy but pockets of vulnerabilities remain. Reform momentum has strengthened, guided by the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
حققت سلطنة عُمان تحسنا ملحوظا في أساسيات اقتصادها. فقد تحسن مركز المالية العامة والمركز الخارجي تحسنا كبيرا، في حين يشهد النمو غير الهيدروكربوني انتعاشا في ظل انخفاض التضخم. كما زادت ثقة المستثمرين، مما يمهد الطريق لزيادة استثمارات القطاع الخاص. ويمكن لجهود لإصلاح المستمرة تعظيم المكاسب المتحققة من هذه الإنجازات، والمساعدة على تحقيق التحول الاقتصادي المستهدف على النحو الوارد في رؤية عُمان 2040.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Samoan economy has bounced back strongly over the last two years, supported by a recovery in tourism. Fiscal surpluses, in part due to high grant flows, have helped the country emerge from the pandemic with enhanced buffers. At the same time, several longstanding and emerging factors—including lack of economies of scale, climate vulnerabilities, ML/TF concerns, delays in the implementation of public investment due to capacity constraints, and rising outward migration—pose challenges to the economic outlook in the medium term.