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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
El Salvador: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; emigration loss; product; emigration rate; merchandise export; credit growth; export growth El Salvador; credit allocation; Pension spending; Exports; Competition; Migration; Skilled labor; Central America; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Do Elections Always Motivate Incumbents? Experimentation vs. Career Concerns
Mr. Ben Lockwood
and
Mr. Eric Le Borgne
This paper studies a principal-agent model of the relationship between an incumbent officeholder and the electorate, where the officeholder is initially uninformed about her ability. If officeholder effort and ability interact in the "production function" that determines performance in office, then an officeholder has an incentive to experiment-that is, raise effort so that performance becomes a more accurate signal of her ability. Elections reduce the experimentation effect, and the reduction in this effect may more than offset the positive "career-concerns" effect of elections on effort. Moreover, when this occurs, appointment of officeholders may Pareto-dominate elections.
Keywords:
WP; disp-formula id
Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration and Human Capital Formation: Theory and Evidence From the U.S. High School Movement
Mr. Rodney Ramcharan
In 1910, 12 percent of American 14-17 year olds were enrolled in high school; by 1930, enrollment had increased to 50 percent; enrollment in Britain was 12 percent in 1950. This paper argues that by increasing the skill premium, the massive inflows of European unskilled immigrants at the turn of the twentieth century engendered America's sharp rise in human capital investment. The increased enrollments raised the supply of schools, leading to continued schooling investment. Cross section evidence and a VAR analysis of the time series data support the hypothesized role of immigration in generating the high school movement.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; time series; private cost; factor movements; human capital formation; skill premium; immigration flow; population movement; Migration; Skilled labor; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Policy, Labor Markets and the Poor
International Monetary Fund
In designing policy measures, including possible social safety nets, targeted to the poor, it is important to fully understand the efficiency implications of these measures. There is abundant macroeconomic literature on their negative effects on the poor’s work effort. The literature, however, does not adequately recognize the positive effects of these measures on improved nutrition and health of the poor or on aggregate supply. This paper presents an analytical framework to trace both the positive efficiency implications, as well as the resource (or cost) implications of such policies.
Keywords:
WP; aggregate supply; fiscal policy; aggregate output; physical capital