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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Structural Determinants of the Labor Share in Europe
Dilyana Dimova
The labor share in Europe has been on a downward trend. This paper finds that the decline is concentrated in manufacture and among low- to mid-skilled workers. The shifting nature of employment away from full-time jobs and a rollback of employment protection, unemployment benefits and unemployment benefits have been the main contributors. Technology and globalization hurt sectors where jobs are routinizable but helped others that require specialized skills. High-skilled professionals gained labor share driven by productivity aided by flexible work environments, while low- and mid-skilled workers lost labor share owing to globalization and the erosion of labor market safety nets.
Keywords:
WP; skilled worker; import penetration; employment share; further labor share erosion; labor market; labor share erosion; labor share shrinkage; labor share stagnation; share data; share decline; wage share; labor share; technology; employment policies; globalization; shift share analysis; labor share contraction; labor share growth; labor share shrink; labor share stem; self-employment share; labor share come; labor share tend; labor share fluctuation; Employment; Employment protection; Unemployment benefits; Global; Baltics; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Self-Employment and Support for the Dutch Pension Reform
Ms. Izabela Karpowicz
The Netherlands’ pension system is characterized by high participation rates, adequate retirement income, strong capitalization and sustainability. Pressure points are arising, however, due to population aging and untransparent intergenerational transfers inherent in the system. Moreover, the Dutch pension system needs to adapt to the changing labor market landscape with an increasing share of workers in self-employment not covered by any pension arrangement. The government has proposed replacing collective defined-benefits schemes with personal accounts, and abolishing uniform premia and constant accrual rates. The micro-data analysis shows that allowing greater risk-taking and freedom of choice in managing pension savings could crowd self-employed into pension schemes.
Keywords:
WP; risk; pension; result; pension reform; self-employment; risk attitude; pillar pension schemes; investment risk; pension contract; self-employment status; income stream; gross income; risk sharing; occupational pension; Pension spending; Pensions; Income; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?
Mariana Colacelli
and
Emilio Fernández Corugedo
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
Keywords:
WP; product market reform; duality reform; inflation prospect; A. labor market; IMF staff's calculation; labor market duality reform; Structural reforms; demographics; OLG models; Japan; Japan calibration; nominal interest rate; GDP effect; Labor market reforms; Accommodative monetary policy; Commodity markets; Northern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Needle in the Haystack: What Drives Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Countries?
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Davide Furceri
, and
Jakob Miethe
The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged thus far. To make progress, we draw a parallel with model uncertainty in the growth literature and provide a new version of the Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates (BAMLE) technique tailored to binary logit models. Relying on a new database of major past labor and product market reforms in advanced countries, we test a large set of variables for robust correlation with reform in each area. We find widespread support for the crisis-induces-reform hypothesis. Outside pressure increases the likelihood of reform in certain areas: reforms are more likely when other countries also undertake them and when there is formal pressure to implement them. Other robust correlates are more specific to certain areas—for example, international pressure and political factors are most relevant for product market and job protection reforms, respectively.
Keywords:
WP; product market reform; business cycle; unemployment benefit; political economy; Structural reforms; labor market; product market; deregulation; employment protection; unemployment benefits; Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates; centralization gov.; EU country; government coalition; product market flexibility; party majority; political orientation; political system; left-of-center government; product market deregulation; government party majority; government vote share; Labor market reforms; Commodity markets; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Eastern Europe; Southern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Narrative Database of Major Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Davide Furceri
,
Bingjie Hu
,
João Tovar Jalles
, and
Huy Nguyen
This paper describes a new database of major labor and product market reforms covering 26 advanced economies over the period 1970-2013. The focus is on large changes in product market regulation in seven individual network industries, employment protection legislation for regular and temporary workers, and the replacement rate and duration of unemployment benefits. The main advantage of this dataset is the precise identification of the nature and date of major reforms, which is valuable in many empirical applications. By contrast, the dataset does not attempt to measure and compare policy settings across countries, and as such is no substitute for other publicly available indicators produced, for example, by the ILO, the OECD or the World Bank. It should also be seen as work in progress, for researchers to build on and improve upon. Based on the dataset, major reforms appear to have been more frequent in product markets than in labor markets in the last decades, and were predominantly implemented during the 1990s and 2000s.
Keywords:
WP; reform; product market; labor market; legislation; Regulation; Network Industries; Employment Protection; Unemployment insurance; product market reform; product market regulation; OECD indicator; reform database; regulation area; major reform; Commodity markets; Unemployment benefits; Labor market reforms; Labor markets; Southern Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Staff Note for the G-20—A Guiding Framework for Structural Reforms
International Monetary Fund
This note responds to a request from the G20 for IMF assistance in helping develop priorities and guiding principles for structural reforms. Structural reforms have long been a central element of the G20’s strategy of achieving job-rich growth, and G20 countries have made over 1,000 structural policy commitments in their national growth strategies. However, implementation of these commitments has been relatively weak so far. Faster progress on structural reforms is therefore needed to support growth in the near term and bolster potential growth in the medium term—and more generally to make economies more innovative, flexible, and resilient.
Keywords:
PP; policy; product market; monetary policy; emerging market economy; product market reform; policy space; Policy context; macroeconomic policy stimulus; policy choice; demand policy; Structural reforms; Potential output; Active labor market policies; Employment protection; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2013
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
In the December 2013 IMF Research Bulletin, the Research Summaries look at “Reforming Dual Labor Markets in Advanced Economies” (Giovanni Ganelli) and “Rating Through-The-Cycle: What Does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability Accuracy” (John Kiff, Michael Kisser, and Liliana Schumacher). The Q&A discusses Seven Questions on Financial Crises (Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia). This issue also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes, as well as Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. The top-viewed articles from recent of issues of “IMF Economic Review” are featured.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; policy relevance; table-of-contents alert; research; bulletin; energy subsidy reform; visit IMF publication; high-impact research; Labor markets; Banking crises; Employment protection; Energy subsidies; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines implications for long-term bond yields in case of Japan. The analysis finds that so far, upward pressure on interest rates from high public debt has been offset by domestic factors, including a stable investor base with a preference for safe assets. As these effects could decline with population aging, yields could rise unless reforms are implemented to stimulate growth and reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio. In such a scenario, long-term Japanese government bond rates would remain relatively low and stable. The paper also analyzes to what extent rising health care spending poses a fiscal risk to Japan’s economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; GDP; Japan; worker; inflation dynamics; labor market duality; copayment rate; BoJ purchase; Japanese bank; Labor markets; Long term interest rates; Aging; Employment protection; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Labor Market Policies and IMF Advice in Advanced Economies during the Great Recession
Mr. Olivier J Blanchard
,
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
, and
Mr. Prakash Loungani
This paper does two things. First, it articulates what are the main implications of theoretical and empirical research for design of labor market policies and labor market institutions. Second, in this light, the paper analyzes the IMF’s labor market recommendations since the beginning of the crisis, both in general, and more specifically in program countries
Keywords:
SDN; unemployment insurance; private sector; wage deflation; public sector wage; Unemployment; labor market institutions; Great Recession; employment protection; natural rate of unemployment; wage distribution; Employment protection; Wages; Unemployment benefits; Unemployment rate; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Spanish Labor Market in a Cross-Country Perspective
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
The Spanish labor market is not working: the unemployment rate is structurally very high; wages are not very responsive to labor market conditions, causing a high cyclicality of unemployment; and the labor market is highly dual. Compared with the EU15, Spanish labor market institutions and policies stand out by the structure of its collective bargaining, which occurs mostly at an intermediate level, and by very high severance payments for permanent workers. Based on a quantitative analysis, the paper shows that moving away from the intermediate level of bargaining would go a long way toward bringing the unemployment rate closer to the EU15 average. The key reform needed to reduce the share of temporary workers is reducing employment protection of permanent workers. Substantially reforming the collective bargaining system and reducing the protection of permanent workers are likely to be highly complementary to secure a substantial reduction in the unemployment rate. The recent 2010 labor market reform attempts to address these issues, although its effects are still to materialize.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; share of temporary workers; equilibrium unemployment; wage agreement