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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Upon the authorities’ request, the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department provided technical assistance to Palau on implementing the recommendations of the technical report produced by the November 2023 mission on government compensation and employment. The creation of the Employment and Compensation Committee (ECC) demonstrated the authorities’ commitment to reform and the mission supports the authorities’ proposal to reorganize the ECC into a Steering Committee and a Working Group. Before awarding pay increases to address issues of recruitment and retention, the government needs to assess its fiscal space and determine its expenditure priorities. The importance of systematically and prominently advertising vacancies online cannot be overstated. Human resource laws and regulations are generally fit for purpose, but current practices governing new position creation and recruitment merit review by the ECC with support from FAD.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Belgium’s post-pandemic recovery has slowed with spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, high inflation, tighter financial conditions, and elevated uncertainty. In response to the spike of energy prices, the federal and regional authorities provided timely and substantial support to households and firms. Along with automatic indexation of wages and benefits, energy support helped cushion impacts, although at significant cost, increasing the fiscal deficit in 2022 and 2023. The labor market has remained tight, with record-high job creation and low unemployment. The external current account swung to a large deficit in 2022, due largely to higher energy imports and lower vaccine exports. A resilient financial sector is facing challenges from the weaker macro-financial environment. Some important structural reforms took place in 2022. Risks are tilted to the downside, related to escalation of the war in Ukraine and a sharper-than-expected tightening of financial conditions. Lower energy prices would reduce fiscal pressures, and with progress on structural reforms before elections in 2024, boost confidence.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy is rebounding. After a 6 percent drop in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow at 4 percent both in 2021 and 2022, reflecting improved mobility, a return of the diaspora, and continued policy support. With uncertainty remaining high, including about the course of the pandemic, policies need to be kept flexible. Emphasis should be on limiting the economic scars from the pandemic crisis while making progress on long-standing reform priorities such as further strengthening public financial management and revenue administration and buttressing the financial safety net.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Albania’s economy has shown considerable resilience in the face of the 2019 earthquake and the pandemic. After the hardship endured in 2020, real GDP is rebounding strongly by a projected 7.8 percent in 2021. Policies have played a critical role in preserving lives and livelihoods and thereby paving the way for the recovery. The key challenges now are to invest efficiently in people and the economy to support the continued development of the country and to rebuild room for fiscal policy maneuver by lowering the very high fiscal deficit and public debt.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Spurred by strong U.S. growth and rising vaccination rates, the economy is rebounding. The government has successfully maintained external, financial, and fiscal stability despite the deepest recession in decades. Nonetheless, Mexico is bearing a very heavy humanitarian, social, and economic cost from COVID-19, including over half a million excess deaths, sizable under-employment, an increase in already-high levels of poverty, and learning losses for the young. Real income per capita is continuing its long-run divergence from the U.S., while additional challenges are emerging from technological shifts and climate change.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Italy reflects discussions with the Italian authorities in January 2020 and is based on the information available as of January 28, 2020. It focuses on Italy’s medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. It, therefore, does not cover the outbreak or the related policy response, which has since become the overarching near-term priority. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. Staff is closely monitoring this health crisis and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in Italy and globally. The overarching challenges are to raise growth and enhance resilience. The IMF staff projects growth in Italy to be the lowest in the European Union over the next five years. High public debt remains a key source of vulnerability. Substantial progress has been made in strengthening bank balance sheets, but important weaknesses remain. In order to durably raise growth and reduce vulnerabilities, Italy needs faster potential growth and medium-term fiscal consolidation.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Macedonia discusses that after a protracted political crisis, the economy has entered a period of solid growth and stability. Over the recent years, the authorities have reviewed the reform momentum, with crucial institutional and governance reforms and efforts to make public finances more sustainable and equitable. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2020. Lower taxes and higher pensions and wages?including public sector and minimum wages?are expected to provide a further, albeit one-off, stimulus to consumption. Export and investment growth would remain robust but slow somewhat, reflecting weak growth in trading partners. An ambitious consolidation is needed to rebuild fiscal policy space and re-orient public spending toward investment. Reforms to address key labor market and institutional weaknesses will help lift medium-term growth and speed up income convergence. Although growth has been solid in the past two decades, it has not been enough to substantially narrow North Macedonia’s large income gap with the European Union. In order to accelerate convergence, it is essential to continue reforms to improve the public administration, rule of law, and control of corruption.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues chapter outlines a strategy to facilitate this and navigate the more challenging monetary environment, involving enhanced communication of policy interest rate intentions and inflation-forecast targeting. The reduction in the inflation target by a percentage point to 2 percent in January 2016 weakened the nominal anchor. Monetary policy can play a role rebuilding the credibility of the anchor more rapidly through the adoption of inflation-forecast targeting. This strengthening of the monetary policy framework involves enhancing communications. An effective, credible monetary policy cannot address all macroeconomic challenges facing Korea. Rather, it can foster robust growth with low inflation, providing a stable and predictable environment that allows other policies to work more effectively. These other policies play a complementary role. Fiscal policy can reinforce the effectiveness of monetary policy, as illustrated by model scenarios. Structural policies can also support monetary policy by, for example, boosting potential growth.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Republic of Korea’s near-term outlook is improving. After slowing in the second half of 2016, growth has picked up in 2017, while recent geopolitical tensions have had a limited impact. The rebound was led by a strong expansion in investment, especially in the information technology and construction sectors. Export growth strengthened thanks to improving external conditions and high global demand for semiconductors. Private consumption growth picked up, but remains below economic growth. Recovery has been supported by an accommodative monetary policy, with lending rates and long-term yields close to record lows.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper focuses on the key issues related to the economy of Latvia. Growth picked up somewhat last year despite a weak external environment. GDP growth rose to 2.7 percent, up about ¼ percent over the previous year. However, growth is expected to slow slightly in 2016 to 2½ percent. While Latvia continues to make steady economic progress, a key challenge will be to generate the growth necessary to sustain the pace of income convergence with Western Europe. Structural reforms will be required to improve state-owned enterprise governance and strengthen the business environment, upgrade public infrastructure, and modernize legal systems.