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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that India is on track to be one of the fastest growing major economies in the world this year, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies. Nonetheless, the economy is facing global headwinds, including a global growth slowdown in an increasingly fragmented world. Policy priorities should focus on replenishing fiscal buffers, securing price stability, maintaining financial stability, and accelerating inclusive growth through comprehensive structural reforms while preserving debt sustainability. Elevated public debt calls for ambitious medium-term consolidation, while continuing to prioritize capital spending. This should be complemented with a sound medium-term fiscal framework to promote transparency and accountability and align policies with India’s development goals. In order to reap the benefits of demographic tailwinds, structural policy should focus on promoting high quality job-rich growth, underpinned by comprehensive reform in areas of education, health, land, agriculture, and labor markets, including measures to boost female labor force participation. Continuing investment in infrastructure, strengthening governance, and enhancing a sound business environment are critical.
Keywords:
policy priority; WPI base year; infrastructure program; CPI series; household inflation expectation; gross investment; policy recommendation; financial asset; FDI regime; fund approval; CPI weight; Inflation; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Heterogeneous Spending, Heterogeneous Multipliers
Umberto Muratori
,
Pedro Juarros
, and
Daniel Valderrama
Do local fiscal multipliers depend on what the government purchases? We find that government purchases of services have larger effects on employment than spending on goods. Industries producing services are more labor-intensive than industries producing goods. This heterogeneity in labor intensity is an important mechanism behind these results. Spending directed toward labor-intensive industries generates stronger increases in employment and labor income relative to spending toward non-labor-intensive industries.
Keywords:
Heterogeneous Local Fiscal Multipliers; Services and Goods Spending; Labor Intensity; government purchase; heterogeneous multiplier; copyright page; goods spending; services spending; Fiscal multipliers; Employment; Defense spending
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Non-hydrocarbon growth; net financial assets; Non-hydrocarbon sector; hydrocarbon revenue; revenue projection; Fiscal governance; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment
Marian Moszoro
We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure—electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that US$1 million of public spending in infrastructure create 3–7 jobs in advanced economies, 10–17 jobs in emerging market economies, and 16–30 jobs in low-income developing countries. As a comparison, US$1 million public spending on R&D yields 5–11 jobs in R&D in OECD countries. Green investment and investment with a larger R&D component deliver higher employment effect. Overall, we estimate that one percent of global GDP in public investment can create more than seven million jobs worldwide through its direct employment effects alone.
Keywords:
employment effect; job content; employment impact; job elasticity; job intensity; construction employment; job multiplier; Public investment spending; Employment; Job creation; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
France: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for France
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
France is among the countries most affected by the global pandemic, both in terms of health and economic impact. Output is expected to have declined by around 9 percent in 2020. The authorities put in place a large emergency fiscal package to address the crisis, focused on preserving jobs and providing liquidity for households and firms, supplemented by additional stimulus measures to support the economic recovery in 2021 and beyond. The banking sector entered the crisis with comfortable buffers and, together with the support of the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy, facilitated the provision of credit to the economy. The increased leverage, however, poses solvency risks to the corporate sector. A partial recovery with GDP growth at about 5½ percent is expected in 2021. Risks to the outlook are large, dominated by the virus dynamics and, together with other risks, tilted somewhat to the downside.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Banque de France; COVID infection; HCSF recommendation; repayment moratoria; growth outlook
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2020 Consultation on Common Euro Area Policies-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to severe socio-economic dislocations and hardship. Supported by an unprecedented policy response and by the easing of lockdown measures as the infection rate moderated, the euro area economy initially recovered strongly from the pandemic’s first wave. However, a large second wave and reimposition of containment measures suggest much slower growth momentum in the near term. The outlook is for a subdued economic recovery and low inflation, with a significant permanent output loss relative to the pre-crisis trajectory. Uncertainty remains extremely high, mainly due to different pandemic scenarios, including regarding the availability and effectiveness of potential vaccines and therapies and behavioral changes. Output growth is expected to be much lower through 2021Q1 than projected in 2020 October World Economic Outlook (WEO) but may rebound beyond then in light of recent promising news on vaccine development. The key policy challenge is to continue countering the pandemic while facilitating a robust and inclusive recovery, including by addressing the health crisis, containing economic scarring, supporting resource reallocation and transformation to greener and more digital economies, and limiting the crisis’s impact on inequality and poverty. In a downside scenario, sizable further stimulus would be needed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; EU leader; recovery package; EU emission reduction goal; EU budget; increase private
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The UK entered 2020 negotiating a new economic relationship with the EU and facing other challenges, including meeting climate targets, dealing with an aging population, and reinvigorating tepid productivity growth. Growth and investment had been weak since the 2016 referendum, and the current account deficit elevated, but unemployment was low, inflation on target, and balance sheets strong. The global pandemic hit the UK hard in March, and the country now faces a second wave. The economic impact has been severe, but helped by an aggressive policy response, jobs have been preserved, businesses kept afloat, and banking sector losses contained. Still, the outlook for the near term is weak, as the economy works through the second wave, Brexit, rising unemployment, and corporate distress. Risks are overall to the downside, centering on the degree of balance sheet damage sustained by households and small and medium enterprises. The pace at which vaccines are able to bring the pandemic under control could be an important mitigating factor.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; NI Protocol; draft UK; bank dividend payment; welfare provision; withdrawal agreement; activity data; COVID-19; Inflation; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brazil: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened Brazil’s longstanding vulnerabilities of low potential growth, high income inequality, and weak fiscal position. While the authorities mounted a rapid and effective response to support the economy and protect the poor and vulnerable, the virus outbreak is yet to be brought under control. Outlook and Risks. Real GDP is projected to contract by 5.8 percent in 2020 followed by a partial recovery to 2.8 percent in 2021. With weak domestic demand, inflation is likely to end 2020 substantially below target. Debt is projected to jump to 100 percent of GDP, due to a 10.6 percentage point deterioration in the primary deficit in 2020, and continue to rise over the next five years. The high level of debt exposes Brazil to confidence shocks. Securing congressional passage of structural reforms to raise potential growth remains challenging.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; reform agenda; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; policy stance; debt sustainability risk; firm commitment; COVID-19; Income; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY2020 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2020 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
PP; expenditures FY; dollar spending; spending execution; unspent FY 18; digitalization strategy; management fee; Medium-term budget; Budget planning and preparation; Capital spending; Financial Sector Assessment Program; COVID-19; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On May 1, 2020, the Executive Board approved an RFI (US$643 million, 67.3 percent of quota), to support the urgent needs of the Ecuadorean economy in the wake of COVID-19 crisis, and the authorities cancelled the three-year Extended Fund Facility arrangement (US$ 4.2 billion, 435 percent of quota). The macroeconomic situation has since deteriorated, prompting the authorities to request a 27-month EFF of SDR 4.615 billion (about US$6.5 billion, 661 percent of quota), to help restore macroeconomic stability, support the most vulnerable groups, and advance the structural reform agenda initiated under the previous EFF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ecuador; EFF arrangement; plan; COPLAFIP regulation; program profile; dollarization regime; EFF program; high-frequency indicator; Debt service; Oil prices; Credit; Global