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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Eight Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Sustaining progress requires improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, taking initial steps toward an enhanced monetary and foreign exchange policy framework, and implementing reforms to unlock growth, formal employment, and investment. Greater focus on micro-level reforms will help support the recovery and boost potential growth. The proposed reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, increasing labor market flexibility, and improving the predictability of the regulatory framework for investment, are steps in the right direction, and their approval and careful implementation should be a priority. Risks, although moderated, are still elevated, requiring agile policymaking. Contingency planning will remain critical, and policies will need to continue to adapt to evolving outcomes to safeguard stability and ensure all program objectives continue to be met.
Keywords:
FX policy; BCRA FX purchase; FX gap; cost recovery; FX access tax; Exchange restrictions; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Yaroslav Hul
,
Mr. Philippe D Karam
,
Adam Remo
, and
Diego Rodriguez Guzman
This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.
Keywords:
Semi-Structural Modeling; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Foreign Exchange Intervention; Forecasting; Imperfect Capital Mobility; policy analysis; fiscal policy instrument; gap-trend projection model; IMF working papers; foreign currency; policy lesson; Interest rate parity; Exchange rates; Capital account; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West Bank and Gaza: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on economic divergence in West Bank and Gaza. Years of isolation and continuous conflicts have left Gaza’s economic development far behind that of the West Bank. In 2022, per capita income in Gaza was only a quarter of that in the West Bank, and unemployment and poverty rates were much higher. This reflects much lower employment and investment rates as well as considerably lower productivity growth. While Israeli-imposed restrictions on access and movement of labor and goods severely hinder trade outcomes and productive capacity in both West Bank and Gaza, restrictions are far more severe for Gaza. As a result of this Gaza blockade and repeated wars with Israel since 2008, the capital stock is stagnant and infrastructure is derelict (especially electricity). Analytical work suggests sizeable economic gains from boosting Gaza’s electricity infrastructure. Prospects for declining donor aid risk worsening Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. Under these conditions, Gaza is unlikely to meet the U.N. 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. A major easing of the blockade and financing constraints is necessary to improve prospects, provided the security situation can be assured in parallel.
Keywords:
Economic sectors; Financial intermediation; Labor; Trade barriers; Pensions; Pension reform; B. labor markets; I-O Analysis; Defined-Benefit component; A. economic developments; old-age benefit; benefits by career length; Electricity; Infrastructure; Labor markets; Pension spending
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West Bank and Gaza: Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper focuses on West Bank and Gaza’s report to the ad hoc liaison committee. The outlook for the Palestinian economy remains dire, with risks tilted to the downside. Achieving higher growth and overcoming the fiscal crisis are intertwined objectives, requiring coordinated efforts from the Palestinian Authority, Israel, and the international donor community. This report elaborates on the transformative fiscal and structural reforms needed to improve the Palestinian living standards over the medium term. The report recommends consolidating the strong fiscal revenue performance and pursues ambitious expenditure reforms in a gradual and socially balanced way, first focused on the wage bill, health system, and net lending. It is also imperative to continue to try to engage the Government of Israel to achieve tangible outcomes to alleviate Israeli-imposed movement, access, and investment restrictions and to resolve the outstanding fiscal files, including Area C taxation. In addition, adopt reforms to further enhance the business climate, advance the digital transformation of the economy, and carry out critical energy infrastructure projects.
Keywords:
Expenditure; Financial sector; International organization; Pension spending; Public debt; Revenue administration; Structural reforms; expenditure reform; research assistance; Palestinian economic recovery; taxation framework; wage bill; Arrears; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Israel: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Israel
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Israel’s impressive economic performance continued in 2022. Economic activity is expected to decelerate in 2023, and thereafter converge toward its potential. IMF staff projects economic growth to slow to about 2.5 percent in 2023, as households’ purchasing power moderates and firms rein in investment. The labor market is expected to remain tight and the unemployment rate is expected to marginally increase. Fiscal buffers are expected to be maintained as public debt to gross domestic product is projected to decrease further and stay below 60 percent. The external sector is projected to remain robust. As domestic demand starts recovering from 2024, the growth rate is anticipated to converge toward its potential rate, estimated at about 3.8 percent; thus, closing the output gap in the medium term. In order to enhance potential growth, authorities must prioritize education reform and infrastructure investment. Improving the skills of minorities will foster an inclusive economy. Improving local transportation infrastructure is key to reducing congestion, improving job accessibility, and alleviating cost of living concerns.
Keywords:
inflation target band; one-year breakeven inflation; inflation expectation; inflation in Israel; potential GDP; data module ROSC; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West Bank and Gaza: Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents a report on West Bank and Gaza to the ad hoc liaison committee. This IMF report puts fiscal and structural reforms into a broader context. It discusses key elements of the Paris Protocol on Economic Relations and their implications for Palestinian growth and income convergence with Israel. It then outlines necessary and sufficient conditions for the customs and de facto currency union to work as intended, including contributions from the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the international community. The report also discusses labor market issues, outcomes, and policies for faster economic growth and job creation. The report recommends working with the Government of Israel (GoI) to facilitate the movement and access of goods and people and investment in Area C. It also recommends addressing the fiscal crisis by formulating detailed fiscal reform policies to reduce the public sector wage bill, net lending, and health spending and, with the GoI, resolving the outstanding fiscal files.
Keywords:
myriad economic policy challenge; IMF report; research assistance; wage bill; clearance revenue; Arrears; Labor markets; Wages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West Bank and Gaza: Report to the AD HOC Liaison Committee
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Palestinian economy is facing formidable challenges. The fiscal situation, high political, security and social tensions, rising inflation, movement and access restrictions and an unfinished structural agenda all weigh on the medium-term outlook. Under unchanged policies, debt is unsustainable and per capita GDP is projected to decline. The situation is particularly dire in Gaza with persistently high unemployment and poverty.
Keywords:
correspondent banking relations; IMF report; research assistance; reform scenario; shekel cash; Arrears; Pension spending; Total expenditures; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West Bank and Gaza: Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This IMF report to the AHLC is the first since September 2018. Following limited engagement over the past three years, policy discussions have intensified in recent months. These discussions have focused mainly on establishing a medium term macro-fiscal framework, including the broad outlines of a reform scenario.
Keywords:
B. PA policy; reform scenario; spending reform; policy discussion; IMF report; Arrears; Pension spending; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Israel: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Israeli economy has weathered the COVID-19 crisis exceptionally well, but risks are high. With substantial fiscal and monetary support, real GDP growth reached 8.1 percent in 2021, driven by consumption and high-tech exports. The rapid vaccination campaign boosted confidence. The outlook is positive but still subject to high uncertainty.
Keywords:
merchandise export; imported wheat; aggregate value; inflation pressure; inflation expectation; Inflation; Labor markets; Housing prices; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Israel: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Israel
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented. Israel’s economic activity recorded a historic contraction, and the outlook remains challenging, with possible long-term scarring. Uncertainty is high, mainly driven by the evolution of the pandemic, the prospects for widespread vaccine distribution, and political uncertainty.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; vaccination pace; Medium-term risk; vaccination campaign; vaccine distribution; health crisis