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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Measurement and Analysis of Poverty x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Strengthening Social Protection to Pave the Way for Technological Innovation: Evidence from the U.S.
Fernanda Brollo
This paper investigates the impact of automation on the U.S. labor market from 2000 to 2007, specifically examining whether more generous social protection programs can mitigate negative effects. Following Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020), the study finds that areas with higher robot adoption reduced employment and wages, in particular for workers without collegue degree. Notably, the paper exploits differences in social protection generosity across states and finds that areas with more generous unemployment insurance (UI) alleviated the negative effects on wages, especially for less-skilled workers. The results suggest that UI allowed displaced workers to find better matches The findings emphasize the importance of robust social protection policies in addressing the challenges posed by automation, contributing valuable insights for policymakers.
Keywords:
Automation; Innovation; Gen-AI; Social Protection; Social Assistance; Social Safety Nets; Labor Market; Unemployment Insurance; labor market program; IMF working paper 24/95; protection policy; wage measure; job searching; employment polarization; Robotics; Labor markets; Employment; Wages; Unemployment benefits; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Strengthening Income Stabilization through Social Protection in Emerging and Developing Economies: The Brazilian Experience
Fernanda Brollo
,
Gabriel Lara Ibarra
, and
Ricardo Campante Vale
Social protection programs are crucial for stabilizing household income, especially during crises. Brazil's response to the pandemic, the Auxilio Emergencial (AE) program, demonstrated the value of a resilient social safety net and digital tools. This study assesses AE's effectiveness in income stabilization, poverty reduction, and inequality. Results show that the pre-pandemic social protection system would have only buffered about a quarter of income loss, with unemployment insurance more significant for higher-income households, and social safety net transfers crucial for lower-income households, especially those in informal employment. AE successfully supported lower-income households during the pandemic, but its generosity went beyond the stabilization of income, resulting in large fiscal costs.
Keywords:
Income Stabilizer; Social Protection; Social Safety Net; Brazil; Auxilio Emergencial; Poverty Reduction; household income; income stabilization; Auxílio Emergencial beneficiary; AE's effectiveness; Income; Social protection spending; Social assistance spending; COVID-19; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Rising Child Poverty in Europe: Mitigating the Scarring from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
,
Iglika Vassileva
, and
Tingyun Chen
Child poverty increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 alone, the number of children suffering from poverty in the EU increased by 19 percent, or close to 1 million. Left unaddressed, this would not only affect individuals’ life prospects and well-being but also have long-term economic implications. This paper argues that, to limit this potential scarring effect of the pandemic, policies should be deployed to reduce rapidly the number of children affected by poverty and mitigate the long-term impact of poverty. Reducing the number of children affected by poverty can be achieved by (i) labor policies and reforms that increase parental work and the labor income of poor parents and (ii) fiscal spending on family and children that can have a powerful and immediate impact. These policies need to be complemented by public investment in education and childcare, health, and housing to mitigate the long-term impact of child poverty.
Keywords:
child poverty; EU assistance; scarring effect; C. measuring poverty; summary plot; labor income; COVID-19; Income; Poverty reduction; Social protection spending; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Operationalizing Inclusive Growth: Per-Percentile Diagnostics to Inform Redistribution Policies
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
and
Andrei Leonidov
Inclusive growth, narrowly defined in this paper as growth that helps reduce inequality, is achieved if consumption of the poor increases faster than consumption of the rich. The paper presents a simple accounting framework for a per-percentile consumption diagnostics that could inform redistribution policies. The proposed framework is illustrated in application to Iraq and Tunisia.
Keywords:
WP; consumption expenditure; expenditure distribution; accounting framework; percentile policy; percentile targeting; percentile properties; per-percentile policy; observed per-capita consumption expenditure distribution; percentile change; changes in consumption expenditure; percentile consumption; percentile structure; Consumption; Inclusive growth; Consumption distribution; Income; Middle East; expenditure increase; expenditure pattern
Cover IMF Working Papers
Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
and
Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
This paper estimates the household income growth rates implied by food demand in a sample of urban Chinese households in 1993–2005. Our estimates, based on Engel curves for food consumption, indicate an average per capita income growth of 6.8 percent per year in 1993–2005. This figure is slightly larger than the 5.9 percent per year obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. We attribute this discrepancy to a small bias in the CPI, which is of a similar magnitude to the one often associated with the CPI in the United States. Our estimates indicate stronger gains among poorer households, suggesting that urban inflation up to 2005 in China was “pro-poor,” in the sense that the increase in the cost of living for poorer households was smaller than for the average one.
Keywords:
WP; cost of living; Household consumption; Income growth; CPI Bias; price deflator; bias estimate; consumption expenditure; measurement error; survey cross-sections; income variable; Income; Consumption; Consumer price indexes; Public expenditure review
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil
Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
and
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
This paper uses Engel curves to estimate real income growth in Brazil. The estimated per capita household real income growth in metropolitan areas during 1987-2002 is about 4½ percent per year, well above the "headline" growth of 1½ percent obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. This suggests a substantial CPI bias during that period, likely owing to one-off effects of trade liberalization and inflation stabilization. The estimated unmeasured gains are higher for poorer households, implying a marked reduction in "real" inequality. This finding challenges the conventional wisdom that post-reform real income growth in Brazil was low.
Keywords:
WP; durable goods; price index; CPI bias; Trade Liberalization; Inflation Stabilization; Economic Reform; bias estimate; expenditure data; expenditure inequality; income growth; expenditures notebook; Personal income; Consumer price indexes; Total expenditures; Household consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Social Impact of a Tax Reform: The Case of Ethiopia
Ms. Sònia Muñoz
and
Stanley Sang-Wook Cho
This paper provides an assessment of the poverty and social impact of replacing Ethiopia's sales tax with a value-added tax (VAT). The results indicate that this reform has not had a major adverse effect on the poorest 40 percent of the population. The VAT is progressive in its incidence, and the higher revenues brought about by the VAT can provide additional funds for poverty-reducing spending, including primary education. At the same time, there is significant scope for making education spending more pro-poor by increasing the access of low-income households to schools.
Keywords:
WP; VAT; sales tax; tax; Poverty; Incidence Analysis; Value-Added Tax; Poverty-Related Expenditure; introduced VAT; public expenditure; tax incidence; VAT proclamation; expenditure policy; incidence of the VAT; revenue collection; VAT amount; Health care spending; Tax incidence; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Defining, Measuring and Alleviating Poverty in an Economy in Transition: The Case of Lithuania
Mr. Peter Cornelius
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Keywords:
WP; income; poverty gap ratio; poverty line; benefit; expenditure data; income decile; summary poverty measure; extent poverty; Personal income; Social assistance spending; Poverty measurement; Poverty reduction; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Structural Adjustmenton the Poor: The Case of Malawi
Mr. Odd Per Brekk
and
Mr. Ronald P Hicks
This paper applies, through a case study on Malawi, a simple methodology indicating the first-round (i.e., price) effects of macroeconomic policies on real earnings of the poor. As the economic program in Malawi has not involved substantial exchange rate action or cuts in subsidies, the real incomes of the poor have been most clearly affected by the pricing policies of the agricultural parastatal and the overall anti-inflationary measures incorporated in the program; developments in minimum wages have also been important. The study suggests that, on balance, these various factors have led to an increase in real incomes of the poor over the program period.
Keywords:
WP; earnings; price; Malawi; low income; nominal wage; expenditure pattern; ESAF program; structural adjustment; price effect; price deceleration; fertilizer price; import liberalization program; ADMARC price; Income; Real wages; Wages; Inflation; Southern Africa