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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Honduras: Public Investment Management Assessment – PIMA and Climate PIMA
Laura A Gores
,
Martín Ardanaz
,
Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos
,
Felipe Bardella
,
Hassan Adan
,
Juan Alberti
,
Juana Aristizabal
,
Ana Cristina Calderón
,
Rui Monteiro
,
Carlos Ortiz
, and
Claudia Sierra
An IMF team conducted a Public Investment Management Assessment including the module on climate change in Honduras. It identified strengths related to the recent reforms in the National Public Investment System of Honduras (SNIPH), but also several weaknesses along the investment cycle that affect its efficiency, and its capacity to respond to climate change related challenges. The mission team identified six high-priority recommendations to improve public investment management, including from a climate change perspective.
Keywords:
Public investment management; climate change; IMF team; high-priority recommendation; climate change perspective; investment project; management system of Honduras; Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA); Public investment spending; Infrastructure; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Honduras: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Purchases-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This page discusses Honduras’ First and Second Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Purchases. The Honduran economy remains resilient, despite external and climate shocks. The authorities have adopted measures to reduce electricity losses and domestic arrears of the state-owned electricity company. Strengthened budget execution, energy sector reforms, proactive implementation of monetary and exchange rate policies, and intensified efforts to tackle long-standing structural bottlenecks remain key to safeguard macroeconomic stability and to promote inclusive and sustained growth. The increasing frequency of climate change-related events calls for accelerating the implementation of climate adaptation policies. In order to support these efforts, the authorities have requested an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Close engagement with IMF staff on this area will continue.
Keywords:
November inflation data; Honduran authorities; Honduras team; November inflation print; bond issuance; Debt sustainability analysis; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Honduras: 2023 Article IV Consultation and Requests for an Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Honduras’ 2023 Article IV Consultation and Requests for an Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility. These arrangements provide support for the Honduran government’s economic and institutional reform agenda over the next three years. The program also aims to support the authorities’ efforts to improve governance and transparency and fight corruption. The program will advance policies needed to strengthen economic resilience and address structural bottlenecks to boost inclusive growth, including by increasing public investment while safeguarding macroeconomic stability. Reforms in the energy sector will be essential to limit fiscal risks and improve the business environment. The authorities are implementing a comprehensive loss reduction plan to strengthen the financial position of the public electricity company and enhance the provision of electricity. In this context, the program also aims to support the authorities’ efforts to build resilience to climate change.
Keywords:
Honduran authorities; band regime; sale transaction; authorities' priority; budget administration; Energy sector; Global; Central America; Western Hemisphere; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financing for the Post-pandemic Recovery: Developing Domestic Sovereign Debt Markets in Central America
Jean François Clevy
,
Mr. Guilherme Pedras
, and
Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz
The pandemic has urged countries around the globe to mobilize financing to support the recovery. This is even more relevant in Central America, where the policy response to cushion the pandemic’s economic and social impact has accentuated pre-existing debt vulnerabilities. This paper documents the potential for local currency bond markets to diversify and expand financing for the recovery, lowering bond yields, funding volatility, and exposure to global shocks. The paper further identifies priority actions, both national and regional, to support market development.
Keywords:
Bond Markets; Fiscal Deficit; Public Debt; Global Spillovers.; financing condition; pre-existing debt vulnerability; sovereign bond bond yield; market development; LCBM development; Yield curve; Securities markets; Government debt management; Government securities; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Honduras: Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, Requests for Augmentation of Access, Extension and Rephasing of the Arrangements, and Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The protracted pandemic and two tropical storms have hit Honduras hard. Despite authorities’ responses, these shocks continue to weigh on activity; reconstruction needs are high while the outlook remains uncertain. The authorities plan to rebuild a more climate-resilient economy, given Honduras’ vulnerabilities to climate change. Presidential elections are scheduled for November 2021.
Keywords:
Honduran authorities; SCF arrangement; reform agenda; economic policy agenda; transparency policy; revenue mobilization agenda; Debt sustainability analysis; Credit; Loans; Central America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Honduras: Technical Assistance Report–Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report evaluates Honduras’s fiscal transparency practices in relation to the IMF Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). Honduras’s score is similar to those of other Latin American countries and emerging market economies that have undergone the evaluation. In relation to the fiscal transparency principles, Honduran practices are considered basic in 15 areas; good in seven areas; and advanced in six areas. Fiscal transparency practices in the area of fiscal forecasting and budgeting are the strongest, while the fiscal risk analysis and management practices are the weakest. Finally, Honduras’s current fiscal transparency practices fall short of the FTC principles in eight areas.
Keywords:
Universidad Nacional Autónoma; Desarrollo de Honduras; Dirección General de Inversión Pública; employee pension administrator; accounts payable; Banco Nacional de Desarrollo Agrícola; budget index; control de los Recursos Públicos; Unidad de Planeamiento y evaluation de la Gestión; Budget planning and preparation; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Fiscal risks; Financial statements; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Honduras: Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, Requests for Extension and Rephasing of the Arrangements, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The near-term outlook has worsened, while a recovery is expected for next year. Amid a weak health system and a surge in infections over the summer, the gradual reopening of the economy has faced setbacks and the pandemic is having a stronger and more protracted social and economic impact than expected. While the policy response to the Covid-19 shock was appropriately designed, there have been implementation challenges and delays. The authorities’ monitoring system of pandemic-related spending and civil society oversight helped identify missteps to implement corrective actions, for which they are receiving technical assistance from FAD and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). More recently, Honduras is also facing the challenge to respond to two tropical storms, which the authorities intend to manage within the contour of the current economic program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; climate change risk mitigation spending; MDB project support; completion of the review; customs administration reform; infrastructure damage; Honduran authorities; COVID-19; Loans; Credit; Currencies; Arrears; Caribbean; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Honduras: Second Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, Requests for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Honduras’ Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Arrangement Under the Stand-By Credit Facility, Requests for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and external spillovers are expected to hit Honduras hard, and the augmentation of access will support the authorities’ response to mitigate the impact. The completion of the reviews will help Honduras meet urgent balance of payments needs stemming from the pandemic, including increased health care and social spending. The authorities continue to take steps to improve the institutional framework in the electricity sector. Important measures have been incorporated into the program. These aim at improving governance and facilitating the unbundling of the national electricity company. Tariffs continue to reflect the cost of electricity provision while providing subsidies to the poor. The augmentation of access under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility should help the authorities cover external financing needs to mitigate the impact of the pandemic.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; electricity sector reform; debt; authority; SCF arrangement; emergency spending; Completes Second Reviews Under SBA; crawling peg regime; monetary policy; Credit; Public sector; Loans; Global; Central America; COVID-19; Debt sustainability analysis
Cover IMF Working Papers
Crime and Output: Theory and Application to the Northern Triangle of Central America
Dmitry Plotnikov
This paper presents a structural model of crime and output. Individuals make an occupational choice between criminal and legal activities. The return to becoming a criminal is endogenously determined in a general equilibrium together with the level of crime and economic activity. I calibrate the model to the Northern Triangle countries and conduct several policy experiments. I find that for a country like Honduras crime reduces GDP by about 3 percent through its negative effect on employment indirectly, in addition to direct costs of crime associated with material losses, which are in line with literature estimates. Also, the model generates a non-linear effect of crime on output and vice versa. On average I find that a one percent increase in output per capita implies about ½ percent decline in crime, while a decrease of about 5 percent in crime leads to about one percent increase in output per capita. These positive effects are larger if the initial level of crime is larger.
Keywords:
WP; crime rate; judicial system; Crime; Employment; Growth; crime level; representative firm; crime uncertainty; crime cost; cost calculation; insight crime; Labor markets; Public expenditure review; Wages; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Honduras: First Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights Honduras’ First Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Stand-By Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Despite headwinds to growth and a challenging external environment, the Honduran authorities remain fully committed to the economic program supported by the IMF. They have maintained prudent macroeconomic policies—the fiscal position is in line with the Fiscal Responsibility Law, inflation is within the central bank’s target band, and the current account deficit has narrowed despite adverse terms of trade—and have taken initial steps on structural reforms to promote sustained, inclusive growth. Important measures to strengthen the governance and anti-corruption frameworks have been incorporated into the program, adding to the ongoing efforts to strengthen the institutional framework in the central bank and in public finances, and to improve the business environment. The authorities are expected to protect the revenue mobilization efforts made over the past years to reduce the infrastructure gap and increase social spending. These efforts seem to be critical to reduce poverty and inequality, while maintaining a prudent fiscal position that secures debt sustainability over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; revenue mobilization effort; target band; authority; SCF arrangement; BCH authorities; government fiscal policy; sound central bank governance structure; Credit; Public sector; Loans; Currencies; Global