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Bryn Battersby
,
Ian H Hawkesworth
,
Natalia Salazar
,
Chathebert Mudhunguyo
,
Rehemah Namutebi
,
Willie Du Preez
,
Kubai Khasiani
, and
Tchaoussala Haoussia
The assistance assessed The Gambia’s public investment management practices and their climate sensitivity using the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) with the Climate Module (C-PIMA). Findings reveal progress in strengthening the institutional design of public investment management since the 2019 PIMA, with advances such as the 2020 Cabinet Memorandum establishing the Gambia Strategic Review Board, the 2023 State Owned Enterprise (SOE) Act for centralized SOE oversight, and improved procurement legislation. However, gaps in project selection criteria, centralized reviews, and risk assessment persist. The assessment also noted weaknesses in the climate sensitivity of public investment management, with limited integration of climate risks into project planning, appraisal, and selection. Recommendations include creating a public investment management information system, centralizing PIM oversight within the Ministry of Finance, establishing project selection pipelines, and enhancing climate-related criteria within investment decisions.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Gambia hosted the 15th Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in early May 2024—the second largest intergovernmental organization in the world. Economic recovery is strengthening, while inflation has trended down, albeit slowly. Despite strong revenue collection efforts, the fiscal outcome for 2024H1 was weighed down by the costs of hosting the OIC Summit and emergency support to the National Water and Electricity Corporation (NAWEC). The foreign exchange market continues to function smoothly, and foreign reserves remain at a comfortable level. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents The Gambia’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Economic activity continued to recover robustly. Inflation eased but remains well above the central bank’s medium-term objective. Following the adoption of a new foreign exchange policy, the wedge between the official and parallel market exchange rates has largely closed. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions. Performance under program has been satisfactory. Continued implementation of the reforms will help address medium- and long-term macroeconomic challenges and catalyze additional financing from development partners and the private sector. The central bank will maintain a tight monetary policy stance to ensure that inflation firmly declines. It will also continue close implementation of the recently introduced foreign exchange policy to prevent reoccurrence of forex shortages and any wedge with the parallel market. Finally, structural reforms will be pursued and accelerated, particularly on revenue administration, public financial management, state-owned enterprises management, governance, and business environment.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents the 2023 Article IV consultation and Request for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) with The Gambia. The ECF-supported program aims to strengthen economic recovery, tackle inflation, address foreign exchange pressures, reduce debt vulnerabilities, advance structural reforms, and foster strong and inclusive growth. The Article IV policy consultation focused on drivers of inflation, macroeconomic implications of the gender gap, climate-related risks and policies, debt sustainability, and external stability. In view of lingering vulnerabilities, including the upcoming expiration of debt service deferrals, it would be important to build fiscal and external buffers. The authorities are encouraged to persevere in their ambitious structural reform agenda, including on enhancing governance and improving the business environment to support private sector-led growth and poverty reduction. Adopting strong climate-related policies and tackling gender inequality would also support more resilient and inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights The Gambia’s Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. The IMF Executive Board decision allows for an immediate disbursement of funds to the Gambia to help meet the country’s financing needs, address the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, and support the post-pandemic recovery. The exogenous shocks continue to weigh on the country’s socio-economic environment, impeding vigorous economic activity. Inflation pressures persist. The Gambian authorities are taking measures to address the exogenous shocks and remain committed to strong policies and reforms. The fiscal policy in 2023 will remain anchored on the adopted budget despite multiple shocks, given high debt vulnerabilities. The necessary measures will be taken to this end, including the collection of some significant budgetary resources. Finally, structural reforms will be pursued and accelerated, particularly on revenue administration, public financial management, state-owned enterprises management, governance, and anti-corruption.
Il Jung
This paper has identified four episodes of large and sustained revenue mobilizations in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and found common lessons from the episodes. Although there is no one-size-fits-all strategy, we can find a tax reform path suitable to Nigeria’s circumstances. Based on these cross-country experiences, this paper recommends: (i) implementing a package reform of tax administration and tax policy measures; (ii) focusing mainly on indirect tax (VAT and excise) reforms and tax incentive rationalizations; (iii) undertaking tax administration measures for improving compliance by strengthening taxpayer segmentation and automation; and (iv) launching social dialogue with key stakeholders as well as high-level political commitment.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts about food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. The paper describes regional aspects of Nigeria’s food insecurity and compares the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 and the war in Ukraine on food security in Nigeria and other countries. It also provides an overview of agricultural production and consumption in Nigeria. The paper investigates the drivers of food security using an empirical cross-country framework including demand, supply, and price factors, and offers thoughts on policies to improve agricultural yields and production. The important role of inputs is evident in the policy experience of comparator countries. Nigeria has achieved a substantial increase in agricultural production associated with its policies but some have been less successful. Import dependency for key staples has not fallen and the cost of these agricultural products remains driven by international prices. Further, central bank credit to the agricultural sector has not succeeded in increasing production beyond the stimulus of high rainfall and high food prices.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The repercussions of the war in Ukraine are threatening economic and social stability. Following a slight uptick in July-August, new COVID-19 cases have declined to almost nil recently while the vaccination rate remains low at around 22 percent of the population. The Gambia is also suffering from more frequent climatic shocks, including a recent major flooding. The country continues to advance social and justice reforms. Following a parliamentary election, President Barrow reshuffled the Cabinet in May 2022, without any expected change in the overall direction of economic policies.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses The Gambia’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Despite the various waves of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the Gambian economy grew by 4.3 percent in 2021 and is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2022. Growth is projected to reach 5.6 percent in 2022, predicated on strong remittance inflows, a robust expansion of the construction sector, and large public investment projects. The repercussions of the war in Ukraine intensify inflationary pressures, exacerbate pandemic-related uncertainties, dampen tourism prospects, and disrupt the supply of food and agricultural inputs. The central bank took initial measures to contain inflationary pressures, as inflation reached 11.7 percent at end-April 2022. The authorities remain committed to strong policy measures and structural reforms, including on fiscal management, State-Owned Enterprises, and governance.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Prior to the onset of the pandemic, The Gambia had shown strong macroeconomic performance in the few years following the remarkable political transition in 2016-17. Economic growth accelerated, debt vulnerabilities decreased, external stability strengthened, structural and legislative reforms advanced, and key social indicators improved. However, the COVID-19 pandemic halted some of the hard-won progress, stagnating economic activity and re-igniting extreme poverty. The Gambia experienced a third wave of the pandemic in mid-2021, which has receded recently. The COVID-19 vaccination rate currently stands at about 12 percent of the adult population. Presidential and parliamentary elections are planned for December 2021 and April 2022, respectively.