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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover Departmental Papers
Long-Term Spending Pressures in Europe
Stephanie Eble
,
Alexander Pitt
,
Irina Bunda
,
Oyun Erdene Adilbish
,
Nina Budina
,
Gee Hee Hong
,
Moheb T Malak
,
Sabiha Mohona
,
Alla Myrvoda
, and
Keyra Primus
European countries face high, rising, and long-lasting spending pressures, calling for a renewed focus on fiscal policy and comprehensive structural reforms to prepare their economies for the future. On top of existing fiscal consolidation needs, spending pressures in five key areas are imminent and growing in Europe: pensions and healthcare/long-term care driven by population aging; climate transition; increased defense spending; and higher borrowing costs. Some pressures are immediate, others will build up over time. Projections indicate that additional expenditures could reach 5¾ percent of GDP annually by 2050 in Advanced Europe and 8 percent in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Addressing these challenges will require extensive efforts, including enhancing institutional capacity and implementing deep structural reforms to manage spending, ensure adequate revenue, and meet environmental, social, and security objectives. Policymakers must also consider the distributional impacts of reforms, particularly on vulnerable households. A broad reform agenda tailored to country circumstances is essential, with urgent actions needed in many countries to ensure the sustainability of pension systems and to combat climate change through fiscal instruments like carbon pricing. Increased revenue mobilization, particularly in CESEE, and the reduction of inefficient spending are critical for creating fiscal space for priority expenditures. Strengthening the EU's fiscal capacity to provide common public goods such as climate, defense, energy security, and R&D and implementing structural reforms to enhance growth potential are also vital. However, raising awareness of these issues and implementing the necessary reforms will be challenging. A well-designed fiscal framework that incorporates long-term spending pressures, supported by comprehensive analysis and data, is crucial for informing public debate and guiding national decision-making to ensure that spending pressures are adequately addressed. Ultimately, inaction is not an option, as it risks fiscal sustainability and the fulfillment of priority spending needs.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; structural reforms; climate; defense; demographics; aging; health; public debt; fiscal institutions; spending pressure; member states; EU climate goal; increase EU resilience; emissions trading system; EU financing; EU rule; carbon border adjustment mechanism; EU budget; EU country; climate goal; spending needs; Pension spending; Defense spending; Pensions; Europe; priority spending needs; data from European Union; inefficient spending; long-term spending pressure
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
The Gambia: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment Update with the Climate Module
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) conducted a Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and Climate Module (C-PIMA) for The Gambia to assess public investment management (PIM) and its climate sensitivity. The assessment found improvements since the 2019 PIMA, including the 2020 Cabinet Memorandum for strategic project reviews, the 2023 SOE Act for centralized oversight, and enhanced procurement regulations. However, despite these institutional improvements, effectiveness has yet to catch up and, in some cases, has weakened. Climate resilience is also insufficiently addressed, with weak integration of climate risks into project planning and outdated regulatory frameworks. Key recommendations include establishing a public investment management information system, strengthening PIM oversight within the Ministry of Finance, formalizing project selection pipelines, and embedding climate-related criteria in investment decisions.
Keywords:
The Gambia; investment; PIM; PIMA; Climate; Climate Module; C-PIMA.; management institution; procurement authority; IMF climate policy diagnostic; capital cash outlay; D. investment allocation; climate PIMA; Public investment spending; Climate change; Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Global Financial Stability Notes
Pension Funds and Financial Stability
This Global Financial Stability Note examines the growth of the pension fund sector and the potential financial stability implications. Historically, pension funds have been seen as a contributor to financial stability because of their long-term and well-diversified liabilities. However, the sector has undergone significant structural shifts accelerated by a prolonged period of low interest rates, increasing its exposure to traditional risks while introducing emerging risks; this is reflected in growing intra-financial sector interconnectedness and exposure to long-term sovereign bonds. The recent transition to higher interest rates should be positive for the pension sector, albeit its pace and abruptness has been associated with liquidity stress and contagion risks in some countries.
Keywords:
Pension Funds; Financial Stability; Assets; Risks; Pension Plans; major pension fund sector; IMF Library; major pension savings market; structural liquidity; asset-liability duration mismatch; risk analysis; Pension spending; Pensions; Financial sector stability; Liquidity risk; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment with the Climate Module
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report summarizes findings from a Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and the Climate Module (C-PIMA) conducted for Tajikistan. The assessment evaluated the country's public investment management practices, including their climate sensitivity. Tajikistan performs well in certain areas but faces significant gaps in others. Parallel external and internally financed processes present recurring challenges across Tajikistan’s public investment management framework, limiting consistency and strategic alignment. Implementing a comprehensive framework for overseeing all projects, regardless of funding source, would significantly improve efficiency and climate responsiveness.
Keywords:
Republic of Tajikistan; Public investment management; PIMA; C-PIMA; climate change; Green PFM; climate-sensitive infrastructure.; D. Investment allocation; authorities of the Republic of Tajikistan; investment project; Republic of Tajikistan analysis; Investment planning; priorities in Tajikistan; management institution; Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Updated Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation
Gustavo Adler
,
Cian Allen
,
Giovanni Ganelli
, and
Daniel Leigh
This paper presents a dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2020 and 14 economies in Latin America and the Caribbean during 1989-2020. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including central bank reports, Convergence Programmes and Stability Programmes submitted by the authorities to the European Commission, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; taxation; government expenditure; dataset of fiscal consolidation; IMF working paper No. 24/210; OECD report; consumption tax hike; fiscal consolidation plan; Fiscal consolidation; Consumption taxes; Debt reduction; Government debt management; Fiscal performance assessment; Caribbean
Cover International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2024
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2024
Resilience in the Face of Change
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The experience of the global economy since the end of the pandemic has been turbulent. The 2024 IMF Annual Report highlights the IMF’s work to on global challenges, including safeguarding macroeconomic stability, returning to fiscal sustainability, bringing inflation back to targets, and embracing transformative developments. In FY 2024, the Fund continued to support its members in our three core areas: 1) Economic surveillance: 128 country health checks completed. 2) Lending: $70 billion to 30 countries, including about $15 billion to 20 low-income countries, for a total of $357 billion to 97 countries since the start of the pandemic. 3) Capacity development: $382 million for hands-on technical advice, policy-oriented training, and peer learning. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Note: The 2024 IMF Annual Report covers the activities of the Executive Board and IMF management and staff during the financial year May 1, 2023, through April 30, 2024, and in some cases more recently. Background: The Annual Report website includes the IMF’s financial statements for FY 2024 and other background documentation. The Annual Report and the financial statements are also available online at www.imfbookstore.org or www.elibrary.IMF.org

Keywords:
inflation; resilience; debt vulnerabilities; inequality food insecurity; quota; PRGT; geopolitical fragmentation; conflict; climate change; digitalization; cyber risks; artificial intelligence; capacity development; lending; economic surveillance; Deputy managing director; IMF organization chart; boards of governors of the bank; Joint Ministerial Committee of the boards of governors; and international cooperation; IMF staff calculation; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; IMF employee; IMF research; capital markets department; Training and development in revenue administration; Credit; External audit; Balance of payments need; Global; Middle East; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Discourse and Fiscal Policy
Yongquan Cao
,
Era Dabla-Norris
, and
Enrico Di Gregorio
We study the supply of fiscal ideas leveraging thousands of electoral platforms from 65 countries in the Manifesto Project to link how political parties discuss fiscal policy with fiscal outcomes. We provide three sets of results. First, fiscal discourse has become increasingly favourable to higher government spending since at least the 1990s in advanced and emerging economies and across the political spectrum. This pattern does not track survey trends in voter preferences, suggesting that parties have played a role in shifting the focus of political campaigns to fiscal issues to win over voters. Second, fiscal discourse turns conservative under more adverse fiscal conditions, including in the aftermath of debt surges and after the adoption of fiscal rules, but only to a limited extent. Third, over the medium-run, relative discourse changes in favor of government expansion and away from fiscal restraint are followed by higher fiscal deficits. Together, our results suggest that adverse shifts in the supply of fiscal ideas could add to fiscal pressures over time.
Keywords:
Fiscal Discourse; Fiscal Policy; Elections; Manifesto; trend increase; IMF working paper No. 2024/194; survey trend; expansion discourse; Government debt management; Fiscal rules; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
United Kingdom-Montserrat-British Overseas Territory: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (March 18–28, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted for the Statistics Department of Montserrat (SDM), during March 18–28, 2024. The mission was undertaken as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The main purpose of this mission was to assist the SDM in extrapolating the results of the Visitor Expenditure Survey (VES) conducted by the SDM and Montserrat Tourism Division (MTD). The purpose of the VES was to enhance estimates of travel services credits recorded in the current account of the balance of payments (BOP).
Keywords:
Montserrat; balance of payments statistics; travel exports; visitor expenditure survey.; excursionist visitor; IMF's Statistics Department; travel credit; cruise visitor; visitor expenditure survey; Credit; External sector statistics; Caribbean
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Sri Lanka: Technical Assistance Report-Property Taxation at the National and Subnational Level
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report analyzes Sri Lanka’s options for improving the fairness and progressivity of the tax system through the introduction of a nationwide property tax. Given constitutional constraints that limit the taxation of property at the central government level, it recommends taxing the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. With a suitable exemption threshold and a progressive tax rate structure, such a tax can support fiscal consolidation by raising revenue from the most affluent members of Sri Lanka’s society while introducing little distortions. Implementation and enforcement of the tax will require substantive investments in data infrastructure, including through the introduction of a digital sales price and rents register. The report also outlines options for improving the fairness and revenue productivity of subnational assessment rates (local property taxes) and suggests additional reforms that can complement the taxation of real property at the national and subnational level.
Keywords:
Property taxation; Imputed rental income tax; Simplified assessment approach; Sri Lanka; Fiscal consolidation.; imputed rental income; central government; roll number; rental contract; market rental value; Property tax; Transaction tax; Income and capital gains taxes; Income; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Revenue Authorities and their Boards of Management: Recent Developments
William Joseph Crandall
,
Elizabeth Gavin
,
Maureen Kidd
, and
Andrew R Masters
This technical note provides detailed and updated information on the semi-autonomous Revenue Authority (RA) governance model for revenue administration, a model developed 40 years ago and used by some 35 administrations world-wide. The update is provided through a review of relevant legislation, questionnaire results, and outcomes of a series of seminars. The RA governance model has a unique governance structure that includes a Minister, a board of management, and a Chief Executive Officer - three partners. RAs are set up using specific enabling legislation. Clarity in the language used in the law is critical for establishing the exact roles of the three partners. The board of management is unique in that it usually has a more limited role (due in part to the confidentiality of individual taxpayer information) than a board of directors in a private sector corporation. Emerging issues with these boards are examined, and it is noted that some see the RA board role as becoming more closely aligned with private sector boards of directors. RAs were initially founded on the belief that more nimble HR practices and appropriate funding would result in more robust revenue administration. While it is difficult to establish direct causality between the adoption of the RA governance model and improved revenue administration, practitioners are convinced this is the case and that the HR and funding advantages need to be protected.
Keywords:
Semi-autonomous Revenue Authorities; institutional arrangements for revenue administration; governance model; board of management; management autonomy; RA governance model; RA board role; semi-autonomous revenue authority; board chair; RA board; Revenue laws; Semi-autonomous revenue bodies; Tax administration core functions; Revenue administration transparency and accountability; Australia and New Zealand; Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa