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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s economy lost momentum in 2023. The external position weakened, with the current account shifting to a deficit and foreign reserve accumulation slowing. While inflation continued to ease, it remained elevated. Available data indicate a deterioration in the underlying fiscal positions of many countries. The near-term outlook points to stronger economic activity, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024, supported by elevated oil prices and a rebound in oil output. However, the end-June 2024 regional policy assurance on NFA––and, according to preliminary information, the end-December 2024 targets––were not met, indicating a deviation in reserves from the targeted path. Debt vulnerabilities have also worsened in some countries, as evidenced by the growing pressures in the regional government debt market. Following the strong commitment expressed at the extraordinary Heads of State Summit in December 2024 to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen regional institutions, all countries are expected to tackle fiscal slippages, restore fiscal prudence, and implement structural reforms to steer the region toward a more resilient medium-term outlook. This should help reduce risks to the capacity to repay the Fund. However, the projections remain uncertain, as the details of corrective measures and reforms are still being finalized between staff and national authorities.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; CEMAC country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC heads of state; policy assurance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Government securities; Fiscal stance; Global; Central Africa
Cover Policy Papers
2024 Review Of The Fund’s Transparency Policy And Open Archives Policy—Background Paper 3 On Key Concepts And Supportive Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
On November 15, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy and approved a number of reforms. As an international institution, making important documents available to the public on timely basis enhances the IMF’s credibility, accountability, and effectiveness and is critical to fulfill its mandate of promoting global economic and financial stability. While transparency at the IMF is achieved through a range of policies and practices, the Transparency Policy and the Open Archives Policy form the core elements of the IMF’s transparency framework. The Fund has come a long way since the inception of these policies in the early nineties. Most Board documents are now published, published more quickly, and under more consistent and evenhanded application of modification rules. The information available in the Fund’s archives has increased and is more easily accessible to the public. While experience suggests that these policies are effective in delivering on their objectives, the landscape in which the Fund operates has evolved since these policies were last reviewed in 2013. In a more interconnected and shock-prone world the pace with which policymakers need to make decisions has accelerated and the expectations of stakeholders on the availability and timeliness of the Fund’s analysis and policy advice has grown. Against this backdrop, the 2024 Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy focuses on targeted reforms to (i) support faster publication of board documents and communications of Board’s decisions; (ii) strengthen the rules and processes to modify Board documents prior to publication; and (iii) allow faster release of some documents in the Fund’s archives accessible to the public. The reforms further clarify the scope and objectives of these policies, their implementation processes, and how to strengthen knowledge sharing. The review was supported by data analysis as well as surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, including Executive Directors, country authorities, IMF missions chiefs, and civil society organizations as detailed in the three background papers accompanying this 2024 review.
Keywords:
Accountability; Archives; Communication; Independence; Lending; Modification Rules; Publication; Surveillance Transparency; IMF's Transparency policy; publication regime; fund staff; Board document; i. staff guidance; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Civil society organizations; Poverty reduction strategy
Cover Policy Papers
Debt for Development Swaps: An Approach Framework
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
World Bank
The aim of this note is to help stakeholders optimize their decision-making on when, where, and how to use debt-for-development swaps (“debt swaps”), ensuring they bring the intended benefits to all parties involved. It also proposes new approaches to structure these mechanisms, making them less transaction-heavy and more sustainable while maintaining accountability for fulfilling policy and spending commitments. Debt swaps are agreements between a government and one or more of its creditors to replace existing sovereign debt with one or more liabilities1 that include a spending commitment towards a specific development goal. These goals may include nature conservation, climate action, education, nutrition, support for refugees, among others. The spending commitment is often associated with the country's decision to pursue an important development policy.
Keywords:
spending commitment; expenditure efficiency perspective; transparency policy; expenditure program commitment; expenditure commitment; debt sustainability prospect; debt amortization profile; Debt conversion; Debt service; Debt management; Debt sustainability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents a report on the common policies in support of member countries reform programs in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The CEMAC’s economy lost some momentum in 2023 and the external position deteriorated somewhat, while inflation cooled but remained high. Updated statistics revealed a much more deteriorated fiscal situation than originally estimated. In the absence of decisive corrective actions, and with current policies unchanged, fiscal and external imbalances are set to widen in the medium term, threatening to reverse reserve accumulation and add to financial stability risks. Decisive corrective policies are warranted to address the sustained fiscal slippages and return to fiscal prudence. In order to boost potential output, faster progress is needed on strengthening anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism, governance, and regulatory policies, as well as improving human capital, the business climate, the rule of law, financial inclusion, and regional infrastructure.
Keywords:
CEMAC member country; CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; policy rate hike; IMF's transparency policy; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Fiscal stance; Financial sector stability; Arrears; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Gabon: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Gabon’s post-pandemic recovery held up well in the face of recent shocks. The economy hit a soft patch in 2023, following a series of logistics disruptions, political uncertainty, and high fuel prices for businesses, but it is set to resume its potential growth of around 3 percent this year as shocks dissipate. The transition authorities now face a historic opportunity to pivot toward a more transparent and inclusive model of governance, but overcoming decades of entrenched institutional practice will require sustained reform efforts to achieve a point of no return. Discussions focused on the main challenges facing the transition government: ensuring transparency in the management of public resources, putting the fiscal position on a sustainable footing, and raising potential growth, while making it more inclusive. Fiscal imbalances need to be urgently addressed to reduce liquidity risks and avoid unsustainable debt dynamics, as well as to support the external objectives of the currency union. Addressing transparency and governance gaps is critical for understanding the fiscal position, efficiently managing public resources, and supporting the business climate.
Keywords:
transition regime; AFRITAC mission; transition authorities; regime in place; decades-long regime; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Gabon: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper investigates the determinants of sovereign spreads in 50 Emerging Market and Developing Economies, using a fixed effects panel model and leverages the results to draw lessons for improving funding costs in Gabon. The analysis finds that weak governance, high public debt, weak economic performance, a poor government payment record of accomplishment, and social vulnerabilities are the main factors that increase Gabon’s spreads. Strengthening policies in these areas—by bringing indicators for government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and the fiscal position to the median for sovereigns rated Banks Board Bureau by Fitch, as well as clearing external government arrears—could help reduce spreads by at least 500 bp and save at least 0.4 percent of gross domestic product in annual interest costs. The results also give insights into what it might take Gabon to reach investment grade. Investment grade bond spreads are approximately 200 basis points, around 400 basis points below Gabon’s February 2024 level. Strengthening growth drivers and economic diversification is imperative to improve the long-term performance of the economy.
Keywords:
diversification journey; credit risk profile; debt anchor; Nonoil GDP; diversification readiness index; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Business environment; Exports; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Communauté économique et monétaire d’Afrique centrale (CEMAC): politiques communes en appui aux programmes de réforme des pays membres-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI; annexe d’information; déclaration de l’administrateur
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
La reprise économique de la CEMAC s’est accélérée en 2022 à la faveur de la hausse des prix des hydrocarbures. La position extérieure s’est renforcée et les réserves de change augmentent rapidement, quoique demeurant en deçà des niveaux adéquats. La récente baisse des réserves extérieures nécessite des mesures plus énergiques pour resserrer les conditions de liquidité, un respect plus strict de la réglementation des changes par les pays membres et un renforcement de la discipline budgétaire. Les positions budgétaires hors pétrole sous-jacentes se sont toutefois également détériorées. Il sera donc nécessaire d’accélérer les réformes structurelles, de corriger les dérapages budgétaires récents et de ramener les politiques publiques en ligne avec les objectifs des programmes appuyés par le FMI et les conseils des services du FMI. Ces actions seront nécessaires pour accroître la capacité de résistance de la région à la volatilité des prix des hydrocarbures, à l’instabilité financière, à l’inflation persistante, au resserrement des conditions financières, à l’insécurité alimentaire, aux conflits internes et à l’insécurité, ainsi qu’aux événements climatiques.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses common policies of member countries, and common policies in support of member countries reform programs in Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). In order to preserve price stability and strengthen external buffers, maintain a data-dependent monetary policy with a tightening bias; further increase interest rates on liquidity absorption and gradually converge toward the main policy rate, and switch to a full allotment procedure; and resolve remaining issues to a complete and effective implementation of the foreign exchange regulations. The CEMAC economy continued to recover, supported by favorable hydrocarbon prices, strengthening its external position. Global inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, though remain elevated, while continued tightening of financial conditions could put a dent on economic growth. Maintaining fiscal consolidation paths consistent with IMF-supported programs and surveillance advice, and accelerating structural reforms are critical for boosting economic diversification and resilience. In order to lift potential growth and enhance economic diversification and resilience, accelerate structural reforms in areas of governance and regulation; productivity-enhancing investments; and deepen regional trade integration.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC): Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale-Politiques communes en appui aux programmes de réforme des pays membres; Rapport des services du FMI; et déclaration de l’administrateur
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
En 2022, l’évolution des cours des hydrocarbures a été favorable à la CEMAC. La reprise économique s’est raffermie et la position extérieure s’est renforcée, l’accumulation de réserves extérieures s’étant accélérée ces derniers mois, quoique demeurant en deçà des niveaux adéquats. La politique monétaire a été resserrée afin d’endiguer l’inflation, et les positions budgétaires se sont améliorées sous l’effet de l’augmentation des recettes pétrolières. Toutefois, les positions budgétaires hors pétrole sous-jacentes se sont détériorées, nécessitant d’accélérer les réformes et de corriger les dérapages budgétaires récents afin de contribuer à épargner une partie du surcroît de recettes pétrolières et de ramener les politiques publiques en ligne avec les objectifs des programmes appuyés par le FMI et les conseils des services du FMI. Cela permettrait de faire plus efficacement face aux facteurs de risques, notamment la volatilité des cours des hydrocarbures, l’insécurité alimentaire, l’instabilité financière, les poussées inflationnistes, le resserrement des conditions de financements et les vulnérabilités liées à la dette.
Keywords:
CEMAC country; inflation expectation; policy mix coherence; CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; CEMAC heads of state conference; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Oil prices; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
The Use of Mirror Data by Customs Administrations: From Principles to Practice
Anne-Marie Geourjon
,
Bertrand Laporte
, and
Mr. Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
This note discusses the relevance of mirror data analysis for customs administrations and how these administrations can adjust this technique to their needs, particularly to support the customs risk management function. Based on IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s capacity development experience in developing countries, it describes in detail the recommended steps to be followed to analyze the data, then advises on the operational utilization of obtained results.
Keywords:
Customs administration; export; data; import; revenue mobilization; risk management; tax compliance; international trade; mirror data analysis; export data; IMF Library; analysis sustainability; Customs information; Exports; Customs administration core functions; Imports; Tariffs; Valuation, origin and classification; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global