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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights a technical note on insurance and pension fund regulation and supervision in The Netherlands. The Dutch insurance sector is undergoing further consolidation, the life sector has been steadily shrinking over the last two decades, and the non-life market is relatively saturated. Investment exposures to real estate are increasing, and Dutch insurers are large providers of mortgage loans. Solvency ratios of Dutch insurers are well above the regulatory threshold, but below the EU average and furthermore distorted by the mechanics of the ‘Long-Term Guarantee Measures’ in Solvency II. The Dutch pension system—considered to be among the best according to international comparisons—rests on three pillars. Most pension schemes are defined-benefit pensions, which have come under pressure since 2008, when low interest rates resulted in declining funding ratio and led to an overall loss in confidence in the system. The Dutch system for independent state agencies, including De Nederlandsche Bank and Autoriteit Financiële Markten, carefully balances powers and accountability. Supervision of insurers and pension funds is effective in the Netherlands.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note evaluates non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) as a sector in Finland, with a special focus on the pension insurance companies (PIC). Pensions, including the PICs and fund managers, are the most significant parts of the NBFI sector, followed by insurance. Market participants value their relationship with the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority, particularly during crisis periods, but noted that extra resources and expertise would be useful for the NBFI sector. The Financial Sector Assessment Program analysis reveals a history of procyclical and herding behavior in the PIC portfolios due to the substance and perception of the solvency regulations, which drive the behavior of market participants. Discussion on further reforms to the 2017 solvency laws should focus on enhancing the long-term purpose of the PICs to generate returns—to the benefit of all social partners and Finnish citizens. Even though liquidity risks are low, a liquidity regulation should be developed so that PICs have sufficient buffers for extreme events.
Mr. Jose L. Torres
Over the last two decades, the Peruvian government has made great efforts to improve access to health care by significantly augmenting the coverage of the non-contributory public health care system Seguro Integral de Salud (SIS). This expansion has a positive impact on welfare and public health indicators, as it limits the risk of catastrophic health-related costs for previously uninsured individuals and allows for the appropriate treatment of illnesses. However, it also entails some unintended consequences for informality, tax revenues, and GDP, since a few formal agents are paying for a service that the majority of (informal) agents receive for free. In this paper, we use a general equilibrium model calibrated for Peru to simulate the expansion of SIS to quantify the unintended effects. We find that overall welfare increases, but informality rises by 2.7 percent, while tax revenues and output decrease by roughly 0.1 percent. Given the extent of the expansion in eligibility, the economic relevance of these results seems negligible. However, this occurs because the expansion of coverage was mostly funded by reducing the spending per-insured person. In fact, we find larger costs if public spending is increased to improve the quality of service given universal coverage.
Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well as market instruments. Each layer is calibrated to cover estimated fiscal cost of NDs according to intensity and expected damage. The results indicate that ECCU countries could target saving fund stocks for relativelly smaller and more frequent events in the range of 6-12 percent of GDP, enough to cover 95 percent of NDs’ fiscal costs. To ensure financially-sustainable saving funds with a low probability of depletion, this requires annual budget savings in the range os 0.5 to 1.9 percent of GDP per year. Additional coverage could be obtained with market instruments for large and less frequent events, albeit at a significant cost.The results are based on a Monte-Carlo experiment that simulates natural disaster shocks and their impact on output and government finances.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Denmark’s insurance sector is highly developed with a particularly high penetration and density in the life sector. Traditionally, work-related life insurance and pension savings are offered as a combined package, and life insurance companies dominate the market for mandatory pension schemes for employees. The high penetration explains the overall size of the insurance sector, which exceeds those of peers from other Nordic countries and various other EU member states. Assets managed by the insurance industry amounted to 146 percent of the GDP at end-2018, compared to 72 percent for the EU average.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note explores key attributes of effective resolution regimes (KA) for insurance companies on France. The safety net in the sector is composed by two policyholder protection schemes, which can provide support in liquidation proceedings. The report highlights that there is consensus with the authorities that the new framework reflects many, however, not all elements needed for full compliance with the KAs, and the areas where further progress is needed. Alignment of the framework with KAs in terms of the institutional organization and infrastructure is high. The scope and responsibilities of the Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority are clearly established in the law, as well as the cases when those are applicable, and its interaction with other relevant policy-making entities. The new framework targets all institutions considered systemic, given their size and other relevant features. Its’ current implementation is guided solely by the threshold in terms of total assets; any holding company, group, mutual, or foreign subsidiary above this level is subject to Recovery and Resolution Planning requirements.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Detailed Assessment of Observance on Insurance Core Principles on Thailand discusses that the government of Thailand has made a concerted effort to develop the insurance sector. The government has implemented a series of insurance development plans toward this end. Some significant regulatory and supervisory challenges remain, however, if Thailand is to continue to meet the pressures of a changing market and to continue to build the trust on which future growth depends. Consideration should be given to vesting more supervisory authority for key supervisory decisions with the Commission rather than with the Minister and Cabinet. Vesting authority with the Commission will help to ensure that the insurance supervisor has adequate powers to meet the objectives of insurance supervision. With respect to winding up and exit from the market, the insurance legislation should be amended to clearly establish a point at which it is no longer permissible for a troubled insurer to continue in business.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Grenada has made significant strides to counter climate change but meeting the daunting remaining challenges will require domestic policy actions and sustained international support. Climate change is an existential threat to Grenada. Increasing frequency and intensity of coastal storms threatens infrastructure and livelihoods, as do increased risk of coastal flooding and drought. Notably, Hurricane Ivan in 2004 caused damages of over 200 percent of GDP. Grenada has recognized this by placing climate resilience at the center of its policy making and forging strategic alliances with key global climate finance providers. However, the challenges facing the country remain daunting and will require large increases in international support, both financial and technical, to assist the Grenadian authorities turn their impressive resilience plans into action.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents a quantification of the long-term benefits of ex-ante resilient investment and insurance needs against natural disasters (ND) in Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Cost-benefit analysis of resilient investment based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model tailored to small states and calibrated to all ECCU economies is also discussed in the paper. The model’s aggregate production function illustrates the interaction among the participating sectors and their contribution to output, ultimately informing the role of resilient investment. The study also quantifies government insurance coverage needs and costs using an empirical stochastic model that simulates NDs fiscal costs. The insurance needs are framed within the World Bank insurance layering framework. The results in this paper underscore the importance of a shift from ex-post recovery to a focus on ex-ante resilience building. Ex-ante resilient investment and insurance are key to the welfare and financial sustainability of the ECCU, given high intensity and recurrence of NDs.