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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
A new Government of National Unity (GNU) has been in place since June 2024, which the markets have welcomed. The GNU faces difficult challenges: declining GDP per capita, high unemployment, poverty and inequality, and rising public debt and debt service, which crowd out other urgent spending needs. Its fresh mandate represents an opportunity to pursue ambitious reforms to safeguard macroeconomic stability and address these challenges, placing the economy on a path toward higher, more inclusive, and greener growth.
Keywords:
support policy credibility; headline inflation; debt management strategy; Policy recommendation; implementation framework; Policy credibility; Government debt management; Exchange rate arrangements; Currency markets; Africa; Global; private sector; short-term debt; Financial sector stability; Inflation
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of IMF Arrangements in Restoring Access to International Capital Markets
Joseph Kogan
,
Romina Kazandjian
,
Shijia Luo
,
Moustapha Mbohou
, and
Hui Miao
Using a database of emerging market fundamentals and bond index spreads across 56 frontier and emerging market countries rated below investment grade during the period 2002-22, we assess whether IMF arrangements can restore access to international capital markets (ICM) for countries in distress through liquidity and conditionality channels. We find that global financial conditions and debt/GDP are the most important determinants of access to ICM within the horizon of a typical IMF arrangement. Using an event study methodology, we show that spreads increase prior to the start of an IMF arrangement and then decrease gradually. By exploiting different characteristics of IMF arrangements, we find evidence that the reforms implemented under the IMF arrangement, as measured by rounds of successful IMF reviews, matter more in the medium term than the IMF’s role as a liquidity provider. These results are consistent with our analysis of 55 credit rating upgrades to ICM access levels, which suggests that debt reduction plays the largest role and that IMF arrangements lend credibility to reforms.
Keywords:
International capital markets; market access; IMF; debt crisis; debt rescheduling; default; sovereign debt; sovereign debt restructuring; sovereign bonds; Eurobonds; IMF arrangement; IMF review; IMF working paper 2024/173; capital markets department; IMF effect; Credit ratings; Bonds; Current account balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries
Thordur Jonasson
,
Sheheryar Malik
,
Kay Chung
, and
Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
Keywords:
exchange rate risk risk management; debt portfolio; public debt manager; currency exposure; risk-management strategy; Government debt management; Debt management; Currencies; Exchange rate risk; Foreign currency debt; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Africa
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
The Case for (and Against) Asset Management Companies in Banking Crises
Miguel A Otero Fernandez
,
Jaime Ponce
,
Marc C Dobler
, and
Tomoaki Hayashi
This technical note explores the advantages and disadvantages of establishing state-sponsored centralized asset management companies (AMCs) to address high levels of bank asset distress during financial crises. AMCs may offer potential benefits like mitigating downward price spirals or achieving efficiency gains by consolidating creditor claims and scarce expertise. However, significant risks and costs warrant careful consideration. These include extreme uncertainties in asset valuation and substantial operational and financial risks. Past international experiences highlight the dangers of underestimating these risks, potentially turning the AMC into a mechanism for deferring losses to taxpayers, rather than minimizing them, and ultimately increasing long-term public costs and moral hazard. This technical note emphasizes these trade-offs and discusses crucial design elements for effective AMCs: a clear mandate, transfer pricing that prudently reflects asset values and disposal costs, strong governance with independent management, and efficient operational processes promoting transparency and accountability.
Keywords:
Asset Management Company (AMC); Bank resolution; Financial Crisis; Financial regulation and supervision; Problem Asset Resolution; Non-performing Loans; Bank restructuring.; asset price spiral; centralized asset management companies; give borrower; AMC need; AMC debt; bank asset distress; resolution strategy; recovery value; asset characteristic; Asset management companies; Distressed assets; Nonperforming loans; Asset valuation; Loans; Global
Cover Analytical Notes
Guidance Note For Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets
International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.
Keywords:
AN; market development; repo market; investor base; reverse repo; government securities; price discovery; banking sector; market-making privilege; market regulation; market fragmentation; repo market development; market infrastructure; Government securities; Securities; Bonds; Securities markets; Government debt management; Global; Africa; East Asia; currency bond markets; IMF expert; government bond market development; bond market reform plans; government debt market; bond market Association; IMF Library; Yield curve; Southeast Asia; Money markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Regulation and Supervision of Investment Funds
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note reviews the functioning and effectiveness of the regulation, supervision, and systemic risk monitoring of investment funds in Japan. It focuses on the requirements that are directly relevant to maintaining financial stability, namely, valuation, segregation and safekeeping of fund assets, liquidity risk management and redemption of fund units. Investment Management Business Operators that are part of major financial groups dominate the industry and the majority of assets under management are invested in equities via securities investment trusts. The regulatory framework has been recently enhanced with relation to liquidity risk management. The authorities have also recently implemented a new supervisory approach that relies on an enhanced offsite monitoring of firms. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) has increased its data collection efforts and launched a number of targeted initiatives to get a better insight of the industry, in particular in relation to certain practices that the FSA determines require more attention, such as liquidity risk management. Authorities should ensure a broader coverage of their onsite inspection program while maintaining their offsite enhancement focus.
Keywords:
business operator; Japan securities dealers Association; investment advisory; Japan FSAP; FSAP finding; Financial stability assessment; Mutual funds; Government asset management; Asset management; Business enterprises; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Nigeria, under its new administration, has set out on an ambitious reform path to restore macroeconomic stability and support inclusive growth. The authorities reformed the fuel price subsidies, unified official foreign exchange windows, and are focused on revenue mobilization, governance, and enhancing the monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks, as well as strengthening social safety nets. Near-term risks are tilted to the downside, but determined and well-sequenced implementation of the authorities’ policy intentions would pave the way for faster, more inclusive and resilient growth. Further strengthening bank capitalization and tight supervision are needed to mitigate emerging financial sector stability risks. Improving the functioning of the domestic securities and foreign exchange markets should enhance the monetary transition mechanism and attract capital inflows. Structural reforms can ease near-term policy trade-offs. Nigeria should continue supporting agricultural productivity, sustain actions to reduce oil theft, remove burdensome border procedures, and accelerate climate adaptation measures.
Keywords:
March inflation; inflation projection; monetary policy committee meeting; March production; inflation print; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Inflation; Currency markets; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: First Reviews Under the Arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper highlights Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s First Reviews under the Arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Mauritania’s economic reform program supported by the IMF ECF/EFF arrangements aims to preserve macroeconomic stability, strengthen the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, consolidate the foundations for sustainable, inclusive growth, and reduce poverty. Economic performance in 2022 has been positive, with robust real gross domestic product growth, decreasing inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit. Still, challenges related to infrastructure, governance, vulnerability to economic shocks and limited economic diversification constrain Mauritania’s economic development. The RSF arrangement will help build resilience to climate change and strengthen the policy framework to maximize synergies with other official financing and catalyze private financing. The RSF arrangement will support Mauritania’s efforts to strengthen its resilience to climate shocks, enhance its capacity to protect the vulnerable against climate shocks, and expedite the transition toward cleaner energy sources.
Keywords:
RSF arrangement; intervention budget; Tekavoul program; economic reform; climate resilience; RSF request; climate agenda; Climate change; Currency markets; Global; Middle East; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Since completion of the fourth review, key program targets were missed reflecting the historic drought along with policy slippages. Against the backdrop of high inflation and rising balance of payments pressures, agreement was reached on a new policy package centered on rebuilding reserves and enhancing fiscal order. Continued strong policy implementation will be critical in the period ahead to safeguard stability and strengthen medium-term sustainability. Risks remain elevated, reflecting an increasingly fragile economic and social situation, rising program implementation difficulties, and election-related uncertainties. In addition, risks could intensify should the projected improvements in climate conditions not materialize, or external conditions worsen. Moreover, even with steadfast implementation, elements of the new policy package may still need to be recalibrated to secure the intended results.
Keywords:
recovery objective; electricity price; staff appraisal; waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria; production cost estimate; policy package; Exchange restrictions; Multiple currency practices; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts, and the Eurozone Crisis
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
,
Philippe Martin
, and
Todd Messer
Despite a formal ‘no-bailout clause,’ we estimate significant net present value transfers from the European Union to Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to a whopping 43% (Greece) of 2010 output during the Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and understand bailouts in a monetary union, and the large observed differences across countries. We characterize bailout size and likelihood as a function of the economic fundamentals (economic activity, debt-to-gdp ratio, default costs). Our model embeds a ‘Southern view’ of the crisis (transfers did not help) and a ‘Northern view’ (transfers weaken fiscal discipline). While a stronger no-bailout commitment reduces risk-shifting, it may not be optimal from the perspective of the creditor country, even ex-ante, if it increases the risk of immediate insolvency for high debt countries. Hence, the model provides a potential justification for the often decried policy of ‘kicking the can down the road.’ Mapping the model to the estimated transfers, we find that the main purpose of the outsized Greek bailout was to prevent an exit from the eurozone and possible contagion. Bailouts to avoid sovereign default were comparatively modest.
Keywords:
Euro area; Monetary Union; Sovereign debt; bailouts; Eurozone crisis; bailout size; no-bailout clause; debt country; debtor country; Monetary unions; Loans; Collateral; Debt default; Global