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Ting Lan
,
Galen Sher
, and
Jing Zhou
We analyze the potential impacts on the German economy of a complete and permanent shutoff of the remaining Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, accounting for the curtailment of flows through Nord Stream 1 that has already taken place. We find that such a scenario could lead to gas shortages of 9 percent of national consumption in the second half of 2022, 10 percent in 2023 and 4 percent in 2024, which would be worse in the winter months, and would likely fall on firms, given legal protections on households. We combine the effects of less gas on production with the consequent effects of reduced supply of intermediate goods and services to downstream firms, and with reduced economic activity due to rising uncertainty. Together, these three channels reduce German GDP relative to baseline levels by about 1.5 percent in 2022, 2.7 percent in 2023 and 0.4 percent in 2024, with no gains in subsequent years from deferred economic activity. The associated rise in wholesale gas prices could increase inflation by about 2 percentage points on average in 2022 and 2023. Our simulations suggest that the economic impacts can be reduced significantly by having households voluntarily share a small part of the burden, and by rationing gas supplies more to more gas-intensive and downstream firms. We also suggest other ways to enhance German energy security.
Mr. Philip Barrett
I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

In recent years, the IMF has become deeply involved in the international movement to prevent the abuse of financial systems and to protect and enhance the integrity of the international financial system. The IMF’s involvement has been expanded beyond anti-money-laundering efforts to include those aimed at combating the financing of terrorism. This handbook will facilitate the provision of relevant technical assistance by providing a compendium of essential materials for officials drafting legislation designed to combat such financing. The relevant international standards and obligations are presented, together with examples of existing legislation designed to meet them. The issues discussed in this book are relevant to all countries, regardless of their individual geopolitical situations.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

In recent years, the IMF has become deeply involved in the international movement to prevent the abuse of financial systems and to protect and enhance the integrity of the international financial system. The IMF’s involvement has been expanded beyond anti-money-laundering efforts to include those aimed at combating the financing of terrorism. This handbook will facilitate the provision of relevant technical assistance by providing a compendium of essential materials for officials drafting legislation designed to combat such financing. The relevant international standards and obligations are presented, together with examples of existing legislation designed to meet them. The issues discussed in this book are relevant to all countries, regardless of their individual geopolitical situations.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

In recent years, the IMF has become deeply involved in the international movement to prevent the abuse of financial systems and to protect and enhance the integrity of the international financial system. The IMF’s involvement has been expanded beyond anti-money-laundering efforts to include those aimed at combating the financing of terrorism. This handbook will facilitate the provision of relevant technical assistance by providing a compendium of essential materials for officials drafting legislation designed to combat such financing. The relevant international standards and obligations are presented, together with examples of existing legislation designed to meet them. The issues discussed in this book are relevant to all countries, regardless of their individual geopolitical situations.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Ces dernières années, le FMI a commencé à participer activement aux efforts déployés au niveau international en vue de prévenir l'utilisation abusive des systèmes financiers et afin de protéger et renforcer l'intégrité du système financier international. L'implication du FMI dans ces questions s'est étendue au-delà des mesures contre le blanchiment de capitaux pour y inclure les initiatives visant à réprimer le financement du terrorisme. Ce manuel est destiné à faciliter la fourniture de l'assistance technique nécessaire en fournissant des documents essentiels aux législateurs nationaux chargés de rédiger des lois contre le financement du terrorisme. Il présente les règles et obligations internationales pertinentes, ainsi que des exemples de législation destinés à y satisfaire. Les questions examinées dans le manuel présent un intérêt pour tous les pays, quelle que soit leur situation géopolitique.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

En los últimos años, el FMI ha participado activamente en iniciativas de cooperación internacional para evitar el abuso de los sistemas financieros nacionales y proteger y mejorar la integridad del sistema financiero internacional. Más allá de los esfuerzos por combatir el lavado de dinero, el FMI ha aplicado su participación también a la lucha contra el financiamiento del terrorismo. Este manual facilitará la prestación de asistencia técnica pertinente al proporcionar un compendio de materiales esenciales para los funcionarios que tienen a su cargo la redacción de leyes de represión de estas actividades de financiamiento. Se presentan las normas y obligaciones internacionales pertinentes, junto con ejemplos de la legislación vigente orientada a cumplir con dichas normas y obligaciones. Los temas tratados en este libro son relevantes para todos los países, independientemente de su situación geopolítica.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

In recent years, the IMF has become deeply involved in the international movement to prevent the abuse of financial systems and to protect and enhance the integrity of the international financial system. The IMF’s involvement has been expanded beyond anti-money-laundering efforts to include those aimed at combating the financing of terrorism. This handbook will facilitate the provision of relevant technical assistance by providing a compendium of essential materials for officials drafting legislation designed to combat such financing. The relevant international standards and obligations are presented, together with examples of existing legislation designed to meet them. The issues discussed in this book are relevant to all countries, regardless of their individual geopolitical situations.