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Vivek B Arora
,
Miguel de Las Casas
,
Yasemin Bal Gündüz
,
Jérémie Cohen-Setton
,
Kelsie J Gentle
,
Jiakun Li
,
Carmen Rollins
, and
Sandra Saveikyte

Abstract

The evaluation assesses the EAP’s rationale, evolution, and implementation during the period since its adoption in 2002. It assesses whether the EAP has fulfilled the objectives that guided its creation, namely, shaping members’ and market expectations, providing clearer benchmarks for Board decisions on program design and exceptional access, safeguarding the Fund’s resources, and helping to ensure uniformity of treatment of members. The evaluation draws on background papers comprising both thematic and country studies that draw on experience with the 38 exceptional access programs completed through mid-2023. The thematic papers analyze the rationale and evolution of the EAP as well as the three building blocks of the policy: the exceptional access criteria, enhanced Board decision-making procedures, and ex post evaluations. The country papers comprise both cross-country studies and country-specific studies of the completed programs with Argentina (2018), Ecuador (2020), and Egypt (2020).

International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The experience of the global economy since the end of the pandemic has been turbulent. The 2024 IMF Annual Report highlights the IMF’s work to on global challenges, including safeguarding macroeconomic stability, returning to fiscal sustainability, bringing inflation back to targets, and embracing transformative developments. In FY 2024, the Fund continued to support its members in our three core areas: 1) Economic surveillance: 128 country health checks completed. 2) Lending: $70 billion to 30 countries, including about $15 billion to 20 low-income countries, for a total of $357 billion to 97 countries since the start of the pandemic. 3) Capacity development: $382 million for hands-on technical advice, policy-oriented training, and peer learning. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Note: The 2024 IMF Annual Report covers the activities of the Executive Board and IMF management and staff during the financial year May 1, 2023, through April 30, 2024, and in some cases more recently. Background: The Annual Report website includes the IMF’s financial statements for FY 2024 and other background documentation. The Annual Report and the financial statements are also available online at www.imfbookstore.org or www.elibrary.IMF.org

Joseph Kogan
,
Romina Kazandjian
,
Shijia Luo
,
Moustapha Mbohou
, and
Hui Miao
Using a database of emerging market fundamentals and bond index spreads across 56 frontier and emerging market countries rated below investment grade during the period 2002-22, we assess whether IMF arrangements can restore access to international capital markets (ICM) for countries in distress through liquidity and conditionality channels. We find that global financial conditions and debt/GDP are the most important determinants of access to ICM within the horizon of a typical IMF arrangement. Using an event study methodology, we show that spreads increase prior to the start of an IMF arrangement and then decrease gradually. By exploiting different characteristics of IMF arrangements, we find evidence that the reforms implemented under the IMF arrangement, as measured by rounds of successful IMF reviews, matter more in the medium term than the IMF’s role as a liquidity provider. These results are consistent with our analysis of 55 credit rating upgrades to ICM access levels, which suggests that debt reduction plays the largest role and that IMF arrangements lend credibility to reforms.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on Colombia’s Request for an Arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. Colombia qualifies for the FCL by virtue of its very strong economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks and track record of implementing very strong policies and commitment to maintaining such policies. The authorities intend to treat the new FCL arrangement as precautionary. The lower access reflects the authorities’ goal of continuing to reduce access as risks permit in the context of their gradual exit strategy. The arrangement should boost market confidence, and combined with the comfortable level of international reserves, provide insurance against external downside risks. The new arrangement under the FCL will provide added insurance against downside external risks and maintain market confidence. The authorities intend to continue to treat this new arrangement as precautionary and to further reduce access under the FCL arrangement, risks permitting, in the context of their gradual exit strategy.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans and risks; (ii) improve the focus, depth, implementation, and tailoring of structural conditions (SCs), with due consideration of growth effects; and (iii) help strengthen the ownership of country authorities. Designed as a comprehensive reference and primer on program design and conditionality in an accessible and transparent manner, the note refers in summary to a broad range of economic and policy considerations over the lifecycle of Fund-supported programs. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
Mr. Rodolfo Maino
,
Theodore Pierre Bikoi
,
Mr. Marcelo Dinenzon
,
Dilek Goncalves
, and
Nelnan Fidèle Koumtingué
This technical note provides an assessment of how external sector statistics capacity development has improved the availability of balance of payments and international investment position data in select countries of sub-Saharan Africa over the period FY2015–22. All countries assessed have made strides to sustain the benefits of capacity development despite continuing challenges.
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Yaroslav Hul
,
Mr. Philippe D Karam
,
Adam Remo
, and
Diego Rodriguez Guzman
This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Brunei has begun to recover from the pandemic, with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions lifted and borders reopened in 2022. Brunei’s high vaccination rates have allowed for the removal of COVID-19 restrictions and reopening of borders; however, reduced oil and gas (O&G) production have undermined the recovery. The financial sector remains liquid and well capitalized. High fuel prices helped strengthen the fiscal and external positions in 2022. Inflation hit a historical high but has recently declined. The government is committed to diversifying toward a low-carbon economy. Growth in 2023 would remain negative due to extended O&G infrastructure maintenance, while non-oil sectors will contribute positively to growth, aiding diversification. Inflation is anticipated to moderate further. The overall fiscal and external positions are projected to weaken in 2023 and the medium term. Prioritize human capital development and digitalization, and strengthen the regulatory framework for public private partnership. Consider more extensive participation in regional trade and economic partnerships.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The 2023 IMF Annual Report highlights the IMF’s work to support its members to address successive shocks, including Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, debt vulnerabilities, inequality food insecurity, geoeconomic fragmentation, climate change, and digitalization. In FY 2023, the Fund continued to support its members in our three core areas: 1) Economic surveillance: 126 country health checks completed.2) Lending: $74 billion to 36 countries, including about $11 billion to 21 low-income countries, for a total of $294 billion to 96 countries since the start of the pandemic. 3) Capacity development: $337 million for hands-on technical advice, policy-oriented training, and peer learning. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Note: The 2023 IMF Annual Report covers the activities of the Executive Board and IMF management and staff during the financial year May 1, 2022, through April 30, 2023, and in some cases more recently. Background: The Annual Report website includes the IMF’s financial statements for FY 2023 and other background documentation. The Annual Report and the financial statements are also available online at www.imfbookstore.org or www.elibrary.IMF.org

International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Food Shock Window (FSW) under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) was approved in September 2022 for 12 months, as a complement to the tools used by the Fund to support the broader international effort to address the global food shock. The Fund has been working closely with partners to provide a coordinated international response to the global food shock, and has contributed through policy advice, technical assistance and lending. Where needed and possible, financial support to countries affected by the global food shock has been delivered by the IMF through multi-year Fund-supported programs The FSW complemented this support in situations where these programs were not feasible or not necessary. As the global food shock and associated balance of payment pressures are expected to continue throughout 2023, the IMF extended the FSW until end-March 2024 to allow the FSW to continue serving as a contingency tool. This extension will also provide sufficient time to observe if the FSW can lapse without limiting the capacity of the Fund to support its members. To ensure adequate borrowing space under the emergency financing limits for those countries that have received support through the FSW, the IMF also extended the additional 25 percent of quota added to the Cumulative Access Limit until end-2026 for countries that have accessed the Food Shock Window through the RFI and until the completion of the 2024/25 PRGT review for those that accessed the Food Shock Window through the RCF.