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Emine Hanedar
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
Vivek B Arora
,
Miguel de Las Casas
,
Yasemin Bal Gündüz
,
Jérémie Cohen-Setton
,
Kelsie J Gentle
,
Jiakun Li
,
Carmen Rollins
, and
Sandra Saveikyte

Abstract

The evaluation assesses the EAP’s rationale, evolution, and implementation during the period since its adoption in 2002. It assesses whether the EAP has fulfilled the objectives that guided its creation, namely, shaping members’ and market expectations, providing clearer benchmarks for Board decisions on program design and exceptional access, safeguarding the Fund’s resources, and helping to ensure uniformity of treatment of members. The evaluation draws on background papers comprising both thematic and country studies that draw on experience with the 38 exceptional access programs completed through mid-2023. The thematic papers analyze the rationale and evolution of the EAP as well as the three building blocks of the policy: the exceptional access criteria, enhanced Board decision-making procedures, and ex post evaluations. The country papers comprise both cross-country studies and country-specific studies of the completed programs with Argentina (2018), Ecuador (2020), and Egypt (2020).

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
On November 15, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy and approved a number of reforms. As an international institution, making important documents available to the public on timely basis enhances the IMF’s credibility, accountability, and effectiveness and is critical to fulfill its mandate of promoting global economic and financial stability. While transparency at the IMF is achieved through a range of policies and practices, the Transparency Policy and the Open Archives Policy form the core elements of the IMF’s transparency framework. The Fund has come a long way since the inception of these policies in the early nineties. Most Board documents are now published, published more quickly, and under more consistent and evenhanded application of modification rules. The information available in the Fund’s archives has increased and is more easily accessible to the public. While experience suggests that these policies are effective in delivering on their objectives, the landscape in which the Fund operates has evolved since these policies were last reviewed in 2013. In a more interconnected and shock-prone world the pace with which policymakers need to make decisions has accelerated and the expectations of stakeholders on the availability and timeliness of the Fund’s analysis and policy advice has grown. Against this backdrop, the 2024 Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy focuses on targeted reforms to (i) support faster publication of board documents and communications of Board’s decisions; (ii) strengthen the rules and processes to modify Board documents prior to publication; and (iii) allow faster release of some documents in the Fund’s archives accessible to the public. The reforms further clarify the scope and objectives of these policies, their implementation processes, and how to strengthen knowledge sharing. The review was supported by data analysis as well as surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, including Executive Directors, country authorities, IMF missions chiefs, and civil society organizations as detailed in the three background papers accompanying this 2024 review.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Arab Republic of Egypt’s Third Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Monetary Policy Consultation Clause, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The Egyptian authorities’ recent efforts to restore macroeconomic stability have started to yield positive results. Inflation remains elevated but is coming down. A flexible exchange rate regime remains a cornerstone of the authorities’ program. However, the regional environment remains difficult, and complex domestic policy challenges require decisive implementation of the authorities’ reform program. Continued fiscal consolidation, with strengthened revenue mobilization, to create the space needed to expand social programs. Meaningfully advancing with the structural reform program would significantly improve growth prospects. Managing the resumption of capital inflows prudently will also be important to contain potential inflationary pressures and limit the risk of future external pressures.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Arab Republic of Egypt’s First and Second Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Monetary Policy Consultation, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Augmentation and Rephasing of Access. A strong economic stabilization plan is being implemented to correct policy slippages. The plan is centered on a liberalized foreign exchange system in the context of a flexible exchange rate regime, a significant tightening of the policy mix, reducing public investment, and leveling the playing field to allow the private sector to become the engine of growth. While the recent sizable investment deal in Ras El-Hekma alleviates the near-term financing pressures, implementation of the economic policies under the program remains critical to address Egypt’s macroeconomic challenges. Robust delivery on structural reforms will be critical to lock in the benefits of the improved financing environment. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the first and second reviews under the EFF Arrangement.
Stoyan E Markov
,
Fadia B Sakr
, and
Patrick De Mets
The Egyptian Tax Administration (ETA) is undergoing a significant transformation within the framework of the MTRS. This summary provides an overview of ETA's progress in implementing the MTRS tax administration initiatives and highlights priority areas for future action. The report focused on key considerations to maintain reform momentum in tax administration under the MTRS in the areas of governance arrangements, organizational structure, human resource management, digitalization, and risk management. The report also contains a mid-term capacity development plan with identified priority areas to further support implementation of the MTRS in the area of tax administration.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report finds that Egypt has implemented important improvements in climate-aware planning and coordination across the public sector, and some initial steps to reflect climate change issues in appraisal and selection of investment projects, but that significant work remains. So far there has been limited progress in ensuring that budgeting, portfolio management and fiscal risk management is climate sensitive. In addition, many of the weaknesses in the overall framework for public investment described in a separate report, also undermine the capacities for climate-sensitive public investment management. The mission makes three main recommendations to address current weaknesses and further improve the climate change awareness of public investment management: 1) Integrate national climate strategies and objectives for both climate change adaptation and mitigation in national, sectoral, construction and spatial planning processes; 2) Reflect climate change considerations in project selection, budgeting, and portfolio management decisions; 3) Strengthen management of climate-related fiscal risks.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report assesses the institutional design and effectiveness of public investment management (PIM) in Egypt. The report concludes that effectiveness is stronger than or on par with comparators for national planning and inter-governmental coordination, and weaker than the average comparator country on several other PIM institutions. Improvements in PIM will be important to close efficiency gaps and enhance the productivity of future public investments. Egypt’s Government has already taken several steps to improve the access to infrastructure and quality of public investment management, including through new legislation, new information systems and significant efforts to enhance staff capacities. The report provides five main recommendations for how these reform steps can be strengthened, sustained and further extended: 1) Strengthen project appraisal and selection processes; 2) Enable private sector involvement in public infrastructure provision: 3) Operationalize PFM law provisions for medium-term budgeting; 4) Strengthen asset management and ensure sufficient maintenance; and 5) Strengthen procurement, project and portfolio management.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper highlights Arab Republic of Egypt’s Request for Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Egypt’s IMF-supported program presents a comprehensive policy package to preserve macroeconomic stability, restore buffers, and pave the way for inclusive and private-sector-led growth. The package includes a durable shift to a flexible exchange rate regime, monetary policy aimed at gradually reducing inflation, fiscal consolidation to ensure downward public debt trajectory while enhancing social safety nets to protect the vulnerable, and wide-ranging structural reforms to reduce the state footprint and strengthen governance and transparency. The EFF is expected to catalyze additional financing from Egypt’s international and regional partners. The authorities’ economic program supported by the 46-month EFF arrangement provides a credible policy package to reduce imbalances, maintain macroeconomic stability, restore buffers and improve resilience against shocks, and pave the way for private-sector-led growth. Given the heightened uncertainty and risks to the global economic outlook, the authorities’ commitment to stay the course on exchange rate flexibility, prudent macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms is critical.

Abstract

Despite some pre-pandemic gains in poverty reduction, literacy, and lifespans, many economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have struggled to ensure that the benefits of economic development and diversification accrue equitably to all segments of their populations. Among the main issues that remain unresolved are the high share of inactive youth (who are not engaged in employment, education, or training); large gaps in economic opportunities for women; fragmented social protection systems; and underdeveloped private sectors with tight regulation, absence of a level playing field, and limited access to credit that stifle the creation of new firms and growth, employment, and incomes. The COVID-19 pandemic not only risks wiping out some of the progress made in the region over the past decades, but could also exacerbate inequality in a durable way. There is evidence that the impact of the pandemic has been uneven across groups, with the recession having a disproportionate effect on the low-skilled, the young, women, and migrant workers in employment and incomes. With widespread inequality, high unemployment, and the expected entry of 27 million young people into the labor force over the next 10 years, countries across the MENA region need to evolve their economic models to boost job creation and make sure that the benefits of economic development are shared more widely among all their citizens. This book’s objective is to reassess the inclusive growth agenda in the MENA region in light of the rapidly changing pandemic-influenced world. It argues that countries need to embrace global trade and technological advances and evolving demographics at home as an opportunity to successfully implement policies that foster higher and more inclusive growth. It underscores that a return to the old social contract is neither desirable nor feasible. The book presents a comprehensive view of policies suited to the regional context that would boost job-rich and inclusive growth within a resilient macroeconomic policy framework. Its goal is to provide guidance to policymakers in the region to frame how best to promote inclusive growth, including in their engagement with all stakeholders.