Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 251 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Central African Republic x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s economy lost momentum in 2023. The external position weakened, with the current account shifting to a deficit and foreign reserve accumulation slowing. While inflation continued to ease, it remained elevated. Available data indicate a deterioration in the underlying fiscal positions of many countries. The near-term outlook points to stronger economic activity, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024, supported by elevated oil prices and a rebound in oil output. However, the end-June 2024 regional policy assurance on NFA––and, according to preliminary information, the end-December 2024 targets––were not met, indicating a deviation in reserves from the targeted path. Debt vulnerabilities have also worsened in some countries, as evidenced by the growing pressures in the regional government debt market. Following the strong commitment expressed at the extraordinary Heads of State Summit in December 2024 to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen regional institutions, all countries are expected to tackle fiscal slippages, restore fiscal prudence, and implement structural reforms to steer the region toward a more resilient medium-term outlook. This should help reduce risks to the capacity to repay the Fund. However, the projections remain uncertain, as the details of corrective measures and reforms are still being finalized between staff and national authorities.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; CEMAC country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC heads of state; policy assurance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Government securities; Fiscal stance; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective
Hannes Mueller
,
Christopher Rauh
,
Benjamin R Seimon
, and
Raphael A Espinoza
Can macroeconomic policy effectively help prevent armed conflicts? This paper contends that two key criteria need to be satisfied: the long-term benefits of prevention policies must exceed the costs associated with uncertain forecasts, and the policies themselves must be directly able to contribute to conflict prevention. This paper proposes policy simulations, based on a novel method of Mueller et al (2024a) that integrates machine learning and dynamic optimization, to show that investing in prevention can generate huge long-run benefits. Returns to prevention policies in countries that have not suffered recently from violence range from $26 to $75 per $1 spent on prevention, and for countries with recent violence, the rate of return could be as high as $103 per $1 spent on prevention. Furthermore, an analysis of the available data and results in the literature suggest that sound macroeconomic policies and international support for these policies can play key roles in conflict prevention. Based on these findings, this paper proposes actionable recommendations, for both global and domestic policymakers as well as international financial institutions and multilateral organizations, to promote peace and stability through macroeconomic policy.
Keywords:
Prevention; fragile state; conflict; machine learning; policy simulation; Policy recommendation; prevention policy; et al; conflict prevention; conflict stage country; building state capacity; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Republic: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Continuous Performance Criterion, Augmentation of Access, and Financing Assurance Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Republic
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Central African Republic’s Second Review under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Continuous Performance Criterion, Augmentation of Access, and Financing Assurances Review. The economy is projected to grow by 1.4 percent in 2024, up from the 0.7 percent posted in 2023, while inflation gradually declines in subsequent years. These projections hinge on expediting reforms to the fuel market. Program implementation was broadly satisfactory considering significant fragilities and uncertainties. Performance under the program has been broadly satisfactory. All but one of the quantitative performance criteria were met, reflecting the authorities’ efforts last December to recover past due taxes and delay spending. The exception was the continuous performance criterion on the nonaccumulation of external arrears, which was missed due to liquidity pressures and the lack of coordination between cash and debt management units. An increase in revenue mobilization in 2024 will hinge on adhering to the action plan. The latter aims to improve the transparency of fuel price structures, align policy reforms with program goals, enhance collaboration among stakeholders, and bolster regulatory enforcement.
Keywords:
monopoly importer; CAR authorities; fuel importer; storage regime; fuel market; Arrears; Price structures; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents a report on the common policies in support of member countries reform programs in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The CEMAC’s economy lost some momentum in 2023 and the external position deteriorated somewhat, while inflation cooled but remained high. Updated statistics revealed a much more deteriorated fiscal situation than originally estimated. In the absence of decisive corrective actions, and with current policies unchanged, fiscal and external imbalances are set to widen in the medium term, threatening to reverse reserve accumulation and add to financial stability risks. Decisive corrective policies are warranted to address the sustained fiscal slippages and return to fiscal prudence. In order to boost potential output, faster progress is needed on strengthening anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism, governance, and regulatory policies, as well as improving human capital, the business climate, the rule of law, financial inclusion, and regional infrastructure.
Keywords:
CEMAC member country; CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; policy rate hike; IMF's transparency policy; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Fiscal stance; Financial sector stability; Arrears; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Communauté économique et monétaire d’Afrique centrale (CEMAC): politiques communes en appui aux programmes de réforme des pays membres-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI; annexe d’information; déclaration de l’administrateur
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
La reprise économique de la CEMAC s’est accélérée en 2022 à la faveur de la hausse des prix des hydrocarbures. La position extérieure s’est renforcée et les réserves de change augmentent rapidement, quoique demeurant en deçà des niveaux adéquats. La récente baisse des réserves extérieures nécessite des mesures plus énergiques pour resserrer les conditions de liquidité, un respect plus strict de la réglementation des changes par les pays membres et un renforcement de la discipline budgétaire. Les positions budgétaires hors pétrole sous-jacentes se sont toutefois également détériorées. Il sera donc nécessaire d’accélérer les réformes structurelles, de corriger les dérapages budgétaires récents et de ramener les politiques publiques en ligne avec les objectifs des programmes appuyés par le FMI et les conseils des services du FMI. Ces actions seront nécessaires pour accroître la capacité de résistance de la région à la volatilité des prix des hydrocarbures, à l’instabilité financière, à l’inflation persistante, au resserrement des conditions financières, à l’insécurité alimentaire, aux conflits internes et à l’insécurité, ainsi qu’aux événements climatiques.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses common policies of member countries, and common policies in support of member countries reform programs in Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). In order to preserve price stability and strengthen external buffers, maintain a data-dependent monetary policy with a tightening bias; further increase interest rates on liquidity absorption and gradually converge toward the main policy rate, and switch to a full allotment procedure; and resolve remaining issues to a complete and effective implementation of the foreign exchange regulations. The CEMAC economy continued to recover, supported by favorable hydrocarbon prices, strengthening its external position. Global inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, though remain elevated, while continued tightening of financial conditions could put a dent on economic growth. Maintaining fiscal consolidation paths consistent with IMF-supported programs and surveillance advice, and accelerating structural reforms are critical for boosting economic diversification and resilience. In order to lift potential growth and enhance economic diversification and resilience, accelerate structural reforms in areas of governance and regulation; productivity-enhancing investments; and deepen regional trade integration.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC): Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale-Politiques communes en appui aux programmes de réforme des pays membres; Rapport des services du FMI; et déclaration de l’administrateur
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
En 2022, l’évolution des cours des hydrocarbures a été favorable à la CEMAC. La reprise économique s’est raffermie et la position extérieure s’est renforcée, l’accumulation de réserves extérieures s’étant accélérée ces derniers mois, quoique demeurant en deçà des niveaux adéquats. La politique monétaire a été resserrée afin d’endiguer l’inflation, et les positions budgétaires se sont améliorées sous l’effet de l’augmentation des recettes pétrolières. Toutefois, les positions budgétaires hors pétrole sous-jacentes se sont détériorées, nécessitant d’accélérer les réformes et de corriger les dérapages budgétaires récents afin de contribuer à épargner une partie du surcroît de recettes pétrolières et de ramener les politiques publiques en ligne avec les objectifs des programmes appuyés par le FMI et les conseils des services du FMI. Cela permettrait de faire plus efficacement face aux facteurs de risques, notamment la volatilité des cours des hydrocarbures, l’insécurité alimentaire, l’instabilité financière, les poussées inflationnistes, le resserrement des conditions de financements et les vulnérabilités liées à la dette.
Keywords:
CEMAC country; inflation expectation; policy mix coherence; CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; CEMAC heads of state conference; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Republic: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurance Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Republic
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Central African Republic’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review. Program implementation has been mixed for the first review, against challenging macroeconomic backdrop in the first half of the year. The authorities are taking measures to ensure that end-December 2023 targets are met, including by shoring up revenue collection. The authorities remain committed to strong policies. The authorities should step up social spending while also prioritizing investment in additional fuel storage capacity and infrastructure to overcome revenue volatility. Strengthening public debt management would alleviate rollover risks, including by lengthening the tenor of new issuances and building cash buffers. Improving debt statistics is also important. The increase in revenues should be met by a spending structure that prioritizes social-related outlays and thus equitable growth. In parallel, the authorities should adopt a more proactive debt management approach and build cash buffers to mitigate rollover risks. Finally, fostering good governance, anti-corruption efforts, transparency and financial integrity will be critical to catalyze donor support.
Keywords:
CAR authorities; financing assurances REVIEW-SUPPLEMENTARY information; fund financing to the CAR; assessment of policy issue; staff's assessment; Arrears; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Central African Economic and Monetary Community’s (CEMAC) common policies in support of member countries reform programs. CEMAC benefited from favorable hydrocarbon prices in 2022. Economic recovery firmed up and the external position strengthened, with external reserves building up faster in recent months, although still below adequate levels. Monetary policy was tightened to stem rising inflation, and fiscal positions improved owing to higher oil revenues. However, underlying non-oil fiscal positions deteriorated, highlighting the necessity of accelerating reforms and tackling recent fiscal slippages, to help save part of the oil windfalls and bring polices back in line with IMF-supported program objectives and IMF staff advice. The report recommends standing ready to tighten monetary policy further; mop up excess liquidity; and resolve pending challenges to a complete, transparent, and consistent implementation of the foreign exchange regulations. It also suggests accelerating governance and productivity-enhancing structural and regulatory reforms; broaden the tax base beyond the hydrocarbon sector; and deepen regional trade integration.
Keywords:
CEMAC country; inflation expectation; policy mix coherence; CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; CEMAC heads of state conference; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
reforming fuel price; import cost audit; cryptographic ambition; CAR authorities; fuel products; Virtual currencies; Food security; Fuel prices; Price structures; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa