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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The authorities have requested a new ECF-supported program, to deepen reforms undertaken under the previous program (completed in July 2024). They have also requested a program under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
Catherine Casanova
,
Eugenio M Cerutti
, and
Swapan-Kumar Pradhan
While Chinese banks have become the top cross-border lender to EMDEs, their expansion has slowed recently, both in terms of volume and market share. Also, the strong correlation of China’s bilateral trade and its banks’ cross-border lending has weakened, while during 2020-22 lending became more positively correlated with FDI. In our paper, we analyse these patterns and we explore the role of borrower risk variables and foreign policies. Our findings show that, although the shifting correlation from trade to FDI is a general EMDE phenomenon, China’s Belt and Road Initiative reinforces it. By contrast, borrowers that potentially benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation do not display stronger FDI-lending relationships. We also find that Chinese banks exhibit different levels of risk tolerance relative to other bank nationalities as borrower country risk variables are positively correlated with Chinese banks’ market shares, but not with their amounts of cross-border lending.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes domestic revenue mobilization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and offers options to strengthen it. Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) in the DRC has improved during the Extended Credit Facility ECF program, standing at 13.7 percent over gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, though it remains persistently low relative to peer countries. The recent improvements in revenue mobilization have been driven by stronger corporate income taxation (particularly stemming from the extractive sector). A comparison between DRC’s and peer countries’ tax structure points to significant room for boosting domestic revenues with stronger mobilization of personal income taxes, taxes on international trade and transactions and goods and services. In addition, the country’s tax potential (estimated on the basis of its structural characteristics and a stochastic frontier model) points to significant scope for improving tax-to-GDP ratio, by about 10 percentage points under more efficient tax policy and tax collection. Finally, tax administration reforms based on recommendations from the recently published the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool report can significantly contribute to boosting DRM, with particular focus on tax-avoidance in the mining sector.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Quantitative Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has made significant progress under the ECF arrangement, although performance during the sixth review has been constrained by the persistent security and humanitarian crises, fiscal slippage, and ongoing inflationary pressures. The domestic fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected to narrow compared to 2023, as higher mining revenue would help ease pressures from higher security spending and investment. Performance under the program has been generally positive, with most quantitative targets met and key reforms implemented, albeit at a slow pace. The economic outlook remains positive but is subject to substantial downside risks. This calls for continued prudent policies and increasing reform efforts in fiscal and monetary frameworks and in governance.
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This supplement includes five background papers and provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model. It is divided into five sections, each consisting of a different background paper. The five sections cover (1) CD Delivery Modalities; (2) Evaluation and Impact; (3) Regional Capacity Development Centers and Field Presence; (4) HR Policies; and (5) Mapping the Fund’s Position vis-à-vis Other CD Providers.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Malgré les effets persistants du conflit armé dans l'est du pays sur la situation sécuritaire et humanitaire, et à l'approche des élections prévues le 20 décembre 2023, les autorités restent déterminées à préserver les objectifs du programme, notamment en évitant les dérapages macroéconomiques et en poursuivant la mise en oeuvre du programme de réformes économiques.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s growth remains resilient despite the negative terms-of-trade shocks and the security and humanitarian crisis linked to the armed conflict in the east of the country. The 2023 domestic fiscal deficit, though narrower compared to 2022, is expected to widen relative to the fourth review due to lower-than-envisaged revenues and insufficient adjustment in spending, which was reprioritized toward security and elections. Notwithstanding the challenging socio-political and security situation, the authorities remain committed to preserving program objectives, including by limiting macroeconomic slippages and continuing implementing the economic reform agenda. While growth remains resilient, fiscal, depreciation and inflationary pressures are high. This challenging macroeconomic context calls for prudent fiscal policies, including curbing nonessential spending and improving spending efficiency, governance, and transparency. Efforts to strengthen monetary policy implementation are also warranted.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ongoing macroeconomic pressures and looming risks call for prudent fiscal policy to preserve fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability, supported by tighter monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressures. The program remains focused on fiscal consolidation through mobilizing domestic revenue, curbing nonpriority spending and enhancing spending efficiency; building reserves buffers and capacity for policy formulation; and strengthening governance. The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow in 2023, which will support monetary policy in curbing inflation. Reforms to strengthen the rule of law and the judiciary system, curb corruption, and improve transparency in the mining sector and public finances are critical to improve the business climate for private investment and economic diversification.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance report on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) focuses on Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and climate PIMA. The access and quality of infrastructure resulting from these investments are very poor, with major risks of deterioration. While it is important to increase investment, that will not be enough; it is also necessary to invest better, thanks to enhanced public investment management. Public investment management in the DRC suffers from weaknesses across the whole project cycle, both on paper and in practice. Strengthening budget credibility is a key condition for the success of public investment management reforms in the DRC. Based on the PIMA evaluation, this report puts forward seven high-priority recommendations that could greatly improve public investment management in the DRC in the short to medium term. Finally, other significant efforts to reform public finance management undertaken by the Government will contribute to enhancing public investment management. This relates particularly to the shift to a double budget appropriation system, to the transition to program-based budgeting, and to the strengthening of transparency and competition in public procurement.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Macroeconomic gains under the program so far are partly overshadowed by recurrent shocks. Due to the war in Ukraine and global economic developments, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing a terms-of-trade shock associated with rising energy and food prices (pushing inflation above 12 percent) and falling prices for mining products. Compounding these headwinds, the escalation of the armed conflict in the east of the country is having major negative economic, security and humanitarian effects, the magnitude of which—if the situation persists or worsens further—could jeopardize recent progress.