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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 80 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Belarus, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Vincent and the Grenadines
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 volcanic eruptions. Despite the authorities’ strong efforts to contain deficits, critical fiscal responses to these shocks pushed up public debt, which—while assessed as sustainable—remains at high risk of distress should future shocks materialize. The economy is projected to grow by 5 percent in 2022, supported by large-scale investment projects and recoveries in tourism and agriculture. Surging commodity prices, fueled by Russia’s war in Ukraine, are expected to raise inflation sharply to 5.8 percent in 2022, adding to fiscal and external pressures and weighing on the recovery. So far, the financial system has weathered the shocks relatively well. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks primarily from an abrupt slowdown in trading partners’ growth, potential delays in investment projects including due to supply chain disruptions, and the ever-present threat of frequent natural disasters.
Keywords:
St. Vincent and the Grenadines economy; Vincentian authorities; authorities of St. Vincent and the Grenadines; resilience building; CPI basket; reconstruction activity; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Ad Hoc Review Under the Extended Credit Facility; Request for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Completion of the Inflation Consultation Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy rebounded strongly from the pandemic recession last year while prudent macroeconomic management maintained robust buffers. But the war in Ukraine and the international sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus have resulted in significant spillovers to Moldova, with implications yet to fully play out. At the outbreak of hostilities, FX market pressures triggered significant foreign currency interventions and bank deposit withdrawals, while dollarization has intensified. Moldova has received the highest per capita inflow of Ukrainian refugees (17 percent of the total population), of which about 100,000 refugees (4 percent of the total population) remain in Moldova. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
Keywords:
authorities in Moldova; inflation consultation; General government budget; authorities' effort; balance-of-payment financing requirement; reform commitment; Energy prices; Inflation; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) visited Minsk during for the seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system, sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency. The NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT). Transitioning to IT would require, among other strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS) and better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process. The mission was mainly aimed at helping with reviewing the initial conditions and compiling a QPM-based forecast as a part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round. The mission, in addition, worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; Near-term forecast; FPAS; TA mission; QPM team; monetary policy meeting; forecast scenario; NBRB flagship publication; NTF expert; Inflation targeting
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; team; FPAS; QPM team; TA mission; forecast scenario; monetary policy transmission channels; monetary policy meeting; Communications in revenue administration; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Belarus
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Belarusian economy is in a cyclical recovery, inflation is at historically low levels and the exchange rate has been broadly stable. Although macroeconomic policy frameworks have improved, there is a need to reduce deep seated vulnerabilities such as rapidly rising public debt, high dollarization, and limited trade and financing diversification. In addition, reforms of the large state-owned enterprise sector are critical to tackle inefficiencies and increase potential growth. Risks ahead are elevated; notably, Belarus could lose significant oil-related discounts and transfers due to internal tax changes in Russia, but the authorities are confident of a successful outcome to the ongoing negotiations.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; deficit; GDP; Belarusian authorities; action program; private sector; liberalization effort; regulation regime; net credit; Credit; Budget planning and preparation; Government finance statistics; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Belarus
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Belarus contracted by 3.9 percent in 2015, with a similar performance in the first half of 2016. The exchange rate depreciated sharply during 2015 and part of 2016. Real wages are down substantially relative to 2014, and corporate losses are up. Unemployment has risen somewhat, though it remains relatively low. The economy is expected to contract further in 2016 and in 2017, reflecting still-weak balance sheets and structural impediments. A subdued recovery is expected in 2018, but over the medium term, potential growth is expected to increase only to about 1.75 percent, limited by negative demographic developments and low productivity growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; refinancing rate; rate; refinancing; Board of the NBRB; provision; staff appraisal; share of NPL; IMF staff estimate; headline inflation; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Reducing Social Security Contributions and Improving the Corporate and Small Business Tax System
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses four key issues, which are closely connected, on tax policy in Ukraine. These issues are social security contribution (SSC), the simplified tax regime for small taxpayers, the corporate profit tax, and excise tax. Ukraine's SSC rates are very high, which are associated with an oversized informal sector that erodes the tax base, while the simplified tax regime for small taxpayers provides inordinate benefits that weaken the tax system and is prone to abuse. Corporate profit tax revenue has declined to its lowest level since 2006 and is now well below the regional average. Excise taxes have become an important revenue source, but remain low by international standards.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; excise tax; SSC rate; tax burden; single tax; tax rate; low income; flat rate; reduction coefficient; SSC revenue; ST regime; retail price; Income; Excises; Personal income tax; Value-added tax; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Reducing Social Security Contributions and Improving the Corporate and Small Business Tax System
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Social Security Contributions (SSC) in Ukraine need urgent attention. If nothing is done, the budget is poised to lose 4.5 percent of GDP in revenues in 2016 due to a legally mandated SSC rate reduction adopted in March 2015. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is studying a number of options to find a responsible, revenue neutral, approach to lowering SSC rates, which at 40 percent of payroll are above all countries in the OECD. At the same time, Ukraine hosts a very large informal sector which stands as a difficult obstacle to developing its social and economic potential. However, there is no fiscal space to forgo tax revenues. The shift of the tax burden away from labor (as recommended by previous FAD missions) cannot jeopardize the integrity of public finances; it needs compensation from reliable sources of tax revenues. A closely connected issue is the Single Tax System (STS) originally designed for small entrepreneurs, but which has become very porous to others. The regime allows qualifying taxpayers to pay a very low tax on income and a symbolic SSC fee, and offers ample opportunities for avoidance by employers who contract their workers as independent entrepreneurs. To restore horizontal equity with regular employees, the STS requires fundamental reform, addressing: a (turnover) cap for the STS that is too high, a system that effectively overrides the VAT threshold, unnecessarily admits legal persons and offers important tax and SSC incentives for employees to reclassify as independent entrepreneurs – a practice that is currently very difficult to combat due to poor rules and enforcement practices. However, the revenue potential here should not be exaggerated given the difficulty in taxing this segment of the population.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; excise tax; SSC rate; tax burden; single tax; tax rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Belarus continues to be highly vulnerable to economic shocks, as was illustrated by the turbulence in foreign exchange and debt markets in late 2014. Frequent bouts of expansionary macroeconomic policies, in a context of deep structural rigidities, have fueled inflation and external imbalances and left Belarus dependent on ad hoc external support. In 2015, growth has slowed sharply as high uncertainty, reductions in real incomes, administrative measures, and declining trade with Russia weighed on activity. The outlook is for a recession and continued external pressures. With Russia in a downturn, the Belarusian economy is projected to contract by 2.25 percent in 2015, led by falling exports.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; market; devaluation; debt; outlay; financing constraint; Belarusian economy; stepwise devaluation; government finance statistics; Directed credit; Exchange rates; Currencies; Global; Western Europe; Baltics; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Belarus
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context: Belarus’ economic model continues to make it highly vulnerable to economic shocks. This was illustrated once more by the turbulence in foreign exchange and debt markets late last year, to which the authorities initially responded with administrative measures before allowing partial exchange rate adjustment. With Russia in recession, a large projected current account deficit, sizable debt repayments, limited market access, and presidential elections in November, risks remain high. Challenges: Further facilitating external adjustment through the implementation of strong and consistent macroeconomic policies. Also, enhancing the market orientation of the economy through bold, frontloaded structural reforms, to bring it on a more sustainable path. Policy recommendations: • Reduce subsidized lending and resist further wage increases this year to contain domestic demand; • Make the exchange rate fully flexible and tighten monetary policy to facilitate orderly external adjustment; • Assess the health of banks and decisively address any uncovered problems including by recapitalizing or resolving undercapitalized banks where necessary; • Remove price controls and mandatory targets for enterprises and devise credible privatization plans to improve resource allocation and raise sustainable growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; market; devaluation; debt; outlay