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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Times of Uncertainty: Understanding the Dynamics and Implications
Patrick A. Imam
,
Kangni R Kpodar
,
Djoulassi K. Oloufade
, and
Vigninou Gammadigbe
This paper delves into the intricate relationship between uncertainty and remittance flows. The prevailing focus has been on tangible risk factors like exchange rate volatility and economic downturn, overshadowing the potential impact of uncertainty on remittance dynamics. Leveraging a new dataset of quarterly remittances combined with uncertainty indicators across 77 developing countries from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in remittance-sending countries negatively affects remittance flows. In contrast, uncertainty in remittance receiving-countries has a more complex, dual effect. In countries with high private investment ratios, rising domestic uncertainty leads to a decline in remittances. Conversely, in countries with low public spending on education and health, remittances increase in response to uncertainy, serving as a social safety net. The paper underscores the heterogeneous and non-linear effects of domestic uncertainty on remittance flows.
Keywords:
Remittances; Uncertainty; Shocks; remittance flow; remittance dynamics; IRF of remittance; remittances in times; uncertainty indicator; Migration; Private investment; Health care spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bhutan achieved significant improvements in social conditions during the last decade, raising living standards. Poverty and inequality have declined, while extreme poverty has been eliminated. Growth is projected to accelerate over the medium term as a large hydro-project is commissioned and capital spending is boosted with the support of external grants. Pull factors are expected to slow down emigration, thereby reducing pressures on the supply side. A gradual fiscal consolidation based on revenue mobilization and accompanied by some spending restraint is needed to increase fiscal space and to reduce reliance on external grants in the longer term. Structural policies should focus on fostering high-quality private sector jobs, as well as diversifying exports. There is scope to strengthen the Royal Monetary Authority’s governance framework, as well as to step up anti-money laundering/countering the financing of terrorism efforts. Improvements in data quality have been significant, but further actions are needed to address remaining weaknesses. These include a need for greater transparency on crypto assets operations.
Keywords:
FDI company; foreign exchange resource; cover loan restructuring; capital investment; IMF team; Global
Cover South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth
South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth

Abstract

South Asia’s Path to Resilient Growth highlights the remarkable development progress in South Asia and how the region can advance in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steps include a renewed push toward greater trade and financial openness, while responding proactively to the distributional impact and dislocation associated with this structural transformation. Promoting a green and digital recovery remains important. The book explores ways to accelerate the income convergence process in the region, leveraging on the still-large potential demographic dividend in most of the countries. These include greater economic diversification and export sophistication, trade and foreign direct investment liberalization and participation in global value chains amid shifting regional and global conditions, financial development, and investment in human capital.

Keywords:
South Asia; sustainable growth; structural reforms; macro-financial management; IMF staff calculation; poverty head count ratio; health outcome; government of India; infrastructure investment; technical efficiency; value chain; teachers' wage; Exports; Climate change; Employment; Inflation targeting; East Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The pandemic has had a substantial impact on the economy, straining pre-pandemic gains in income and poverty reduction. The wide-ranging policy measures, including containment protocols, rapid vaccination and booster campaigns, direct income support, and policy support for borrowers and businesses, mitigated the adverse impact on lives and well-being. As the pandemic recedes and in light of the uncertainties from the war in Ukraine, the focus needs to be on securing livelihoods and ensuring strong and job-rich medium-term growth, while minimizing any persistent adverse effects from the pandemic and mitigating risks.
Keywords:
development goal; quarterly balance of payments; income support; FDI investment rule; Five-Year Plans; food price; COVID-19; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bangladesh: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
RMG industry; FDI inflow; health spending efficiency; Bangladesh labor force; TFP growth loss; Climate change; Climate finance; COVID-19; Exports; Global; South Asia; Total factor productivity
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bhutan continued to make strides in raising per capita incomes and reducing poverty as it concluded the 11th Five Year Plan in 2018. Notably, poverty declined from 12 percent in 2012 to 8.2 percent, and extreme poverty fell to just 1.5 percent. The country is poised to transition to middle-income status, with per capita incomes at nearly US$3,600 in 2018, up from US$1,100 in 2004. Growth has remained robust, averaging 6 percent over the 11th Plan. In FY2018, growth is expected to slow to 5.8 percent from 7.4 percent in FY2017, reflecting slowing construction activity of hydropower projects set to come on stream in 2018 and beyond.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; real GDP; authority; broad money; GDP deflator; balance of payments; current account deficit; policy challenge; reserve cover; Indian rupee; economy well; quarterly balance of payments; Bhutanese economy; Value-added tax; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Exports; South Asia; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY2018 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Fund continues to make efforts to maximize the use of available resources in order to deliver on the priorities and initiatives laid out in the Global Policy Agenda (GPA). The FY 18 outturn reflects reallocations and efficiency gains, as well as flexibility provided by carry forward resources. With the number of Fund arrangements falling, the Fund’s outputs shifted from spending on lending activity to multilateral surveillance. On the input side, the structural budget was fully utilized. This paper presents key highlights of the FY 18 outturn, including a discussion of the outputs and inputs. Details on Capacity Development (CD) are presented in Annex
Keywords:
PP; fy; spend; CD spending; expenditures FY; country spend; governance cost; travel budget; Budget planning and preparation; Total expenditures; Capital spending; Public expenditure review; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses the recent economic developments, outlook, and risks for Bhutan. Following a slowdown in activity in the wake of the rupee shortage, economic growth has picked up more recently. From an average of about 8 percent during the Ninth and Tenth Five-Year Plans spanning fiscal years (FYs) 2003/04–2012/13, real GDP growth fell below 4 percent in FY2012/13 and FY2013/14. Bhutan’s medium-term outlook remains favorable. Commissioning of new hydropower generation projects will boost output, exports, and fiscal revenues. However, domestic risks stem from the need to manage high debt and potentially volatile hydropower-related inflows, which may fuel rapid credit growth and lead to renewed external pressure.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; current account; authority; authorities endeavor; real GDP; Indian rupee; growth slowdown; staff's advice; monetary policy transmission mechanism; staff's suggestion; Credit; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Imports; South Asia; Global; Middle East
Cover Policy Papers
2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies
International Monetary Fund
NULL
Keywords:
PP; Policy advice; The Fund; low-income country; policy; Fund surveillance; fiscal policy advice; fiscal policy analysis; policy challenge; Policy issue; private sector; Spillovers; Financial sector; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper describes the current tax system in Bhutan and suggests options for tax policy reform. Though significant hydropower revenues are expected in the medium term as major projects come on-stream, reforms to the existing tax system in the interim will generate fiscal room and prevent recourse to domestic debt to finance development needs. Key reforms include reducing tax exemptions in the near term and introduction of value-added tax in the medium term. The paper also analyzes the adequacy of international reserves in Bhutan using a customized risk-weighted metric. The results indicate that Bhutan’s reserve levels are ample.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bhutan; rupee; export; taxation; indirect tax; export basket; rupee reserve share; world export; generation capacity; overdraft facilities; export base; revenue collection; Consumption taxes; Exports; Debt service; Income and capital gains taxes; South Asia; Asia and Pacific