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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
fan chart; household debt; Thailand's debt ceiling; public debt debt ceiling; estimates of debt limits; Debt limits; Consumer credit; Loans; Consumer loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions
Bruno R. Delalibera
,
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira
, and
Rafael Machado Parente
In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector. As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems. We develop a general equilibrium life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, three sectors - private formal, private informal and public - and endogenous retirement. We quantitatively assess the long-run effects of reforms being discussed and implemented around the world. Among them, we study the unification of pension systems and increasing the minimum retirement age. We calibrate our model to Brazil, where several of the retirement conditions resemble those of other countries. We find that these reforms lower the likelihood of individuals to apply to a public job and increase the profile of savings over the life cycle. In the long run, these reforms lead to higher output and capital, reduced informality, and average welfare gains. They also drastically reduce the social security deficit.
Keywords:
Social security reform; Public employment; Public deficit; Informality; reform experiment; retirement condition; social security deficit; retirement decision; Retirement; Aging; Public sector; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
expenditure ceiling; rank deterioration; business regulation reform; public debt dynamics; distance to business regulation frontier; Fiscal rules; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Labor markets; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea-Bissau: Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s Seventh Review under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review for Guinea-Bissau. Program performance was strong relative to the quantitative targets and broadly satisfactory as regards structural reforms. All nine quantitative performance criteria and all three structural benchmarks for end-June 2024 were met. Specifically, significant progress was made with regard to energy sector reforms. Growth is expected to reach 5 percent in 2024 while inflation should average 4.2 percent. The fiscal deficit is projected to reach 5 percent of GDP in 2024 and the authorities remain committed to achieving a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP in 2025, in line with the West African Economic and Monetary Union target. However, the economic outlook remains subject to significant downside risks. The authorities are advancing structural reforms that are critical to the successful implementation of the program. Actions have been undertaken to mitigate fiscal risks associated with the public utility company, thereby helping restore its cost recovery.
Keywords:
staff statement; infrastructure project; disbursement request; staff appraisal; cost recovery; Debt sustainability analysis; Fiscal consolidation; Global; West Africa
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Managing Tax Incentives in Developing Countries
Miguel Pecho
,
Stoyan E Markov
,
Philip R Wood
,
Rachel Auclair
, and
Fernando Velayos
This technical note sets out the essential elements to effectively manage tax incentives in developing countries, emphasizing the important role that revenue authorities must play in preventing abuses and revenue leakages. The note presents considerations for a risk-based compliance program on tax incentives that combines various supportive, preventative, and corrective practices and approaches. It also delineates key enablers, such as a whole-of-government approach, robust transparency and accountability practices, and a modern compliance risk management framework.
Keywords:
Tax incentive risks; revenue authorities; whole-of-government approach; governance; transparency and accountability; policy design and legislation; compliance risk management; risk differentiation framework; managing tax incentives; due diligence; Policy design; views ofthe IMF; reporting obligation; Customs authorities; Tax incentives; Semi-autonomous revenue bodies; Special economic zones; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2024
Rebalancing Policies and Pressing on with Reforms
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

After successfully weathering a series of shocks, most countries in the region are converging to their (tepid) potential. Growth is expected to moderate in late 2024 and 2025 while inflation is projected to continue easing, although gradually. With output and inflation gaps mostly closed but monetary policy still contractionary and public finances in need of strengthening, a further rebalancing of the policy mix is necessary. Fiscal consolidation should advance without delay to rebuild buffers while protecting priority public investment and social spending. This would support the normalization of monetary policy and strengthen credibility and resilience of policy frameworks. Most central banks are well placed to proceed with monetary easing, striking a balance between fending off the risk of reemerging price pressures and avoiding an undue economic contraction. Medium-term growth is expected to remain close to its low historical average, reflecting long-standing, unresolved challenges—including low investment and productivity growth—and shifting demographics. Worrisomely, the ongoing reform agenda is noticeably thin and could lead to a vicious circle of low growth, social discontent, and populist policies. Avoiding this requires pressing on with reforms. Improving governance—by strengthening the rule of law, enhancing government effectiveness, and tackling crime—is a priority that cuts across all areas of growth. Boosting capital accumulation requires improving the business environment, fostering competition, and increasing international trade. Greater and more effective public investment is also needed. Maintaining a dynamic labor force and increasing productivity requires tackling informality and making formal labor markets more flexible, including to adapt to new technologies. Increasing female labor participation can help boost the labor force and offset demographic shifts.

Keywords:
Growth; potential growth; medium-term growth; inflation; risks to growth; risks to inflation; labor markets; inflation expectations; fiscal slippages; fiscal consolidation; fiscal rules; policy mix; geopolitical tensions; harmful trade interventions; public debt; public investment; monetary policy; central banks; monetary easing; exchange rates; neutral rates; structural reforms; governance; rule of law; government effectiveness; crime; capital accumulation; international trade; labor force participation; climate change; green transformation.; IMF staff calculation; gender participation gap; central government debt; dynamics in Latin America; gender disparity; Labor force; Public sector; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global; Europe
Cover La aduana, una institución clave
La aduana, una institución clave
Fortaleciendo la administración aduanera en un mundo de cambios
Augusto Azael Pérez Azcárraga
,
Tadatsugu Matsudaira
,
Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
,
Janos Nagy
, and
R. James Clark

Abstract

Las administraciones de aduanas ven surgir nuevos retos a medida que aumenta el volumen del comercio internacional, aparece nueva tecnología y cambian los modelo de negocio. Este libro analiza los cambios y desafíos que enfrentan las administraciones de aduanas y propone formas de abordarlos. Describe los problemas que las autoridades deben tener en cuenta a la hora de elaborar su propia hoja de ruta para la modernización de las aduanas.

Keywords:
aduana; cumplimiento tributario; recaudación de impuestos; evasión fiscal; facilitación del comercio; gestión del riesgo aduanero; seguridad de fronteras; comercio; regímenes fiscales; política comercial; ingreso tributario; operadores comerciales; modernización de la aduana; tecnologías digitales; economía del sector público; administración pública; finanzas públicas; desarrollo económico; avances tecnológicos
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores effects of social unrest in Guatemala. The paper estimates the effects of social unrest on Guatemala’s economy from 2001 to 2023, using the monthly Reported Social Unrest Index as a measure of social unrest. The estimations of the empirical model suggest no effects of social unrest episodes on the main external sector variables. The empirical evidence suggests little to no impact of social unrest in Guatemala. Contrary to Hadzi-Vaskov et al. (2023), the analysis of the effects of social unrest in Guatemala suggests that the effects on the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors are mild, limited, and temporary if not negligible. On the one hand, the lack of cross-country dimensionality is a limitation of our analysis, but on the other hand, exploiting monthly data allows us to disentangle unrest episode effects at higher frequencies than other papers in the literature. Overall, the results are robust to different specifications; the set of controls is extensive and includes controls for future social unrest shocks autocorrelations. The results suggest that Guatemala is resilient to unrest shocks at business-cycle frequencies, even of considerable magnitude.
Keywords:
social spending efficiency; remittance inflow; investment agenda; government expenditure gap; Guatemala's economy; Labor force participation; Gender inequality; Remittances; Women; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brazil: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brazil’s economy has shown remarkable resilience amid the ongoing disinflation. Economic activity has grown steadily, surpassing expectations, reflecting favorable demand and supply factors. With proactive and adequately restrictive monetary policy, headline inflation has declined to the target tolerance interval. Gross domestic product growth is expected to moderate in 2024, reflecting still restrictive monetary policy, a lower fiscal deficit, the flood calamity in Rio Grande do Sul, and normalization of agricultural output. Growth is projected to strengthen to 2.5 percent over the medium term, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point since the 2023 Article IV Consultation, supported by efficiency gains from the value-added tax reform and growing hydrocarbon output. Investment in green growth opportunities could further boost economic potential. The authorities have advanced their ambitious agenda to foster sustainable, inclusive, and green economic growth. Continuing implementation of reforms that promote trade integration, enhance governance, and simplify business regulation would yield productivity gains.
Keywords:
public sector Government Finance Statistics; fund's MCP policy; inflation expectation; foreign exchange regime; executive branch; inflation-targeting monetary policy framework; Fiscal stance; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Eight Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Sustaining progress requires improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, taking initial steps toward an enhanced monetary and foreign exchange policy framework, and implementing reforms to unlock growth, formal employment, and investment. Greater focus on micro-level reforms will help support the recovery and boost potential growth. The proposed reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, increasing labor market flexibility, and improving the predictability of the regulatory framework for investment, are steps in the right direction, and their approval and careful implementation should be a priority. Risks, although moderated, are still elevated, requiring agile policymaking. Contingency planning will remain critical, and policies will need to continue to adapt to evolving outcomes to safeguard stability and ensure all program objectives continue to be met.
Keywords:
FX policy; BCRA FX purchase; FX gap; cost recovery; FX access tax; Exchange restrictions; Public sector; Global