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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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  • Brunei Darussalam x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brunei Darussalam
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Brunei has begun to recover from the pandemic, with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions lifted and borders reopened in 2022. Brunei’s high vaccination rates have allowed for the removal of COVID-19 restrictions and reopening of borders; however, reduced oil and gas (O&G) production have undermined the recovery. The financial sector remains liquid and well capitalized. High fuel prices helped strengthen the fiscal and external positions in 2022. Inflation hit a historical high but has recently declined. The government is committed to diversifying toward a low-carbon economy. Growth in 2023 would remain negative due to extended O&G infrastructure maintenance, while non-oil sectors will contribute positively to growth, aiding diversification. Inflation is anticipated to moderate further. The overall fiscal and external positions are projected to weaken in 2023 and the medium term. Prioritize human capital development and digitalization, and strengthen the regulatory framework for public private partnership. Consider more extensive participation in regional trade and economic partnerships.
Keywords:
Brunei Darussalam's authorities; authorities' effort; sector production; revenue diversification; government of Brunei; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
After successfully weathering the pandemic in 2020, Brunei was hit by new waves of COVID-19, with case numbers going up significantly and new lockdown measures imposed in H2 2021. Reduced activities in mining and LNG manufacturing, combined with the negative impact of new pandemic variants on domestic services, led to a slowdown in the economy. Real GDP contracted by 1.6 percent in 2021. For 2022, growth is projected to rebound to 1.2 percent, on the back of easing of mobility constraints and a positive terms of trade shock due to surges in O&G prices. Inflation, while remaining relatively low at 2.2 percent at end 2021, has increased in 2022 and pressures are expected to remain elevated in the short term, owing to supply disruptions and higher food and fuel prices. The economy continues to diversify, with double-digit growth of the food/agriculture sector and a new fertilizer sector commencing production. The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, due to potential new COVID-19 variants, increased global uncertainty associated with an escalation of the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening from the US and a larger-than-expected growth slowdown in China. On the upside, higher energy prices would further improve the terms of trade and restore fiscal positions in the short term, while partially contributing to build the buffers needed to ensure stronger intergenerational equity. Strong policy actions are needed to boost medium-term growth and foster resilience.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; GDP estimate; CPI weight; transparency policy; mining sector production; inflation risk; Energy prices; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brunei Darussalam
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Brunei’s economic performance—which was strong before the COVID-19 pandemic—has been buffeted by the health crisis and a pandemic-induced oil and gas price shock. The authorities responded fast and decisively. The number of new infections was quickly suppressed, thanks to a swift public health response, effective health measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Strong fiscal and regulatory policy responses helped sustain production and household income and consumption. Past diversification efforts and reforms bore fruit when it was most needed. As a result, the economy performed strongly in 2020, with real GDP posting positive growth of 1.1 percent—a rare outcome amidst negative growth in the region. Economic activity is projected to strengthen in 2021-22, albeit at varying speeds across sectors, and to continue improving over the medium term on the back of further diversification. The outlook is, however, subject to unusual uncertainty, with significant risks skewed to the downside. Sustained strong policy actions are needed to ensure continued resilience, while nurturing green, digital and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
vaccine rollout; containment measure; staff statement; vaccination rate; price shock; Oil prices; COVID-19; Fuel prices; Government finance statistics; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brunei’s economy has been adjusting to declining oil production since 2010 and lower oil and gas (O&G) prices since 2014, with the authorities undertaking wide-ranging reforms. Growth is expected to pick up in 2019 to 1.8 percent, with the outlook improving further over the medium term, driven by stronger O&G activities from asset rejuvenation and large foreign direct investment projects. The authorities have made substantial progress in fiscal consolidation, improving the business climate, and developing the financial sector. The fiscal consolidation initiatives include corporatization and privatization, public-private partnership, evaluation of subsidies against targets, fiscal management enhancement, revenue diversification, and amalgamation of the government’s asset management system. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ initiatives to develop the financial sector, while safeguarding financial stability and integrity. The initiatives include steps to broaden the investor base, establish a secondary bond market, develop the required infrastructure and rules for establishing a stock exchange, and put all the three pillars of Basel II in place.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Brunei; authority; O&G price; oil price shock; gas price; oil price; oil and gas sector GDP; compilation technique; asset rejuvenation; construction material price indices; Fiscal stance; Fiscal consolidation; Financial sector; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government consumption expenditure; Brunei; return on assets; Brunei Darussalam statistical yearbook; development expenditure; liquid asset ratio; return on equity; net incurrence; gas sector revenue; Brunei authorities; Transportation; Development strategy; Natural gas sector; Oil
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Adjustment in Oil Exporters: The Role of Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate
Mr. Alberto Behar
and
Mr. Armand P Fouejieu
After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters (including the Gulf Cooperation Council), a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.
Keywords:
WP; fiscal policy; oil exporter; government spending; foreign currency; trade balance response; Oil exporters; current account; trade balance; exchange rates; trade volume elasticities; Marshall Lerner conditions; government trade balance multiplier; current account response; expenditure switching; price effect; trade balance equation; current account elasticity; wage effect; trade balance regression; trade balance elasticity; reversal episode; Current account balance; Oil; Global
Cover Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
An IEO Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report examines whether the IMF has effectively leveraged an important asset: data. It finds that in general, the IMF has been able to rely on a large amount of data of acceptable quality, and that data provision from member countries has improved markedly over time. Nonetheless, problems with data or data practices have, at times, adversely affected the IMF’s surveillance and lending activities. The roots of data problems are diverse, ranging from problems due to member countries’ capacity constraints or reluctance to share sensitive data to internal issues such as lack of appropriate staff incentives, institutional rigidities, and long-standing work practices. Efforts to tackle these problems are piecemeal, the report finds, without a clear comprehensive strategy that recognizes data as an institutional strategic asset, not just a consumption good for economists. The report makes a number of recommendations that could promote greater progress in this regard.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; data; data management; evaluation; data practice; IMF data provision; model data management guideline; data management framework; data deficiency; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Data dissemination; Financial statistics; Financial statements; Global; data challenge; data management initiative; evaluation team; IMF document; Data collection
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Brunei; gross domestic product; Q1; Q2; Q3; Q4; government consumption expenditure; Brunei Darussalam statistical yearbook; development expenditure; return on assets; liquid asset ratio; Brunei authorities; Transportation; Development strategy; Natural gas sector; Oil
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Brunei; government consumption expenditure; Brunei Darussalam statistical yearbook; development expenditure; return on assets; liquid asset ratio; Brunei authorities; Transportation; Development strategy; Natural gas sector; Oil
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Countries’ Financial Inclusion Standing - A New Composite Index
Mr. Alexander Massara
and
André Mialou
This paper leverages the IMF’s Financial Access Survey (FAS) database to construct a new composite index of financial inclusion. The topic of financial inclusion has gathered significant attention in recent years. Various initiatives have been undertaken by central banks both in advanced and developing countries to promote financial inclusion. The issue has also attracted increasing interest from the international community with the G-20, IMF, and World Bank Group assuming an active role in developing and collecting financial inclusion data and promoting best practices to improve financial inclusion. There is general recognition among policy makers that financial inclusion plays a significant role in sustaining employment, economic growth, and financial stability. Nonetheless, the issue of its robust measurement is still outstanding. The new composite index uses factor analysis to derive a weighting methodology whose absence has been the most persistent of the criticisms of previous indices. Countries are then ranked based on the new composite index, providing an additional analytical tool which could be used for surveillance and policy purposes on a regular basis.
Keywords:
WP; income group; factor analysis; Financial inclusion; access and usage of financial services; index; borrowers variable; a number of variable; outreach variable; cross-dimension composite index; scale invariance; household depositor; composite index value; usage variable; normalized variable; geometric mean; Public expenditure review; Personal income; Commercial banks; Global