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Emine Hanedar
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The implementation of capacity development (CD) advice and reforms since a 2018 TADAT assessment shows slower progress than expected. Renewed recommendations suggest initiating a transformation program for integrated reform.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Bosnia and Herzegovina discusses that growth has proven resilient despite the continued fallout from the war in Ukraine. Uncertainty around the outlook is high and downside risks outweigh, including an abrupt slowdown in Europe, increased commodity price volatility, and rising domestic political tensions. On the other hand, progress on the European Union accession path could provide a reform boost, with positive spillovers. Financial sector risks should continue to be closely monitored and crisis preparedness enhanced. Bank asset classifications and loan-loss provisions should accurately reflect credit risks and losses. Temporary measures that aim to contain increases in lending rates should be allowed to lapse this year as scheduled. Transitioning to green energy and preparing for the introduction of EU carbon pricing require immediate action. The authorities should introduce carbon pricing as soon as possible. Reforms to improve governance protect financial integrity, fight corruption, and step up digitalization should be accelerated to boost growth. The oversight, transparency, and operations of public enterprises should be improved, weaknesses in public procurement addressed, and public investment management strengthened.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
There have been significant improvements in public investment management (PIM) in Bosnia and Herzegovina - Republika Srpska (RS) over the last decade and the legal and institutional design is now ahead of many regional comparators. The effectiveness of the PIM framework is lagging behind its design, and continued strong and consistent reform efforts will be important to eliminate remaining obstacles to efficient public investment. Many of these reforms are already underway or planned.
Karla Vasquez
,
Kika Alex-Okoh
,
Alissa Ashcroft
,
Alessandro Gullo
,
Olya Kroytor
,
Yan Liu
,
Mia Pineda
, and
Ron Snipeliski
Debt opacity burdens the public and can exacerbate debt vulnerabilities in many countries. Both low-income and developing countries and emerging market economies have critical gaps in debt transparency, and the implementation of international standards and guidelines has lagged. The paper surveys the legal frameworks of sixty jurisdictions and reveals the critical weaknesses that hinder debt transparency, which include weak reporting obligations, limited coverage of public debt, inadequate monitoring, unclear borrowing and delegation processes, unfettered confidentiality arrangements and weak accountability mechanisms. Because laws entrench practices and bind the discretion of policy makers and debt managers alike, subjecting them to public scrutiny, legal reform is a necessary part of any solution to the problem of hidden debt, though it may entail a difficult and time intensive process in many jurisdictions.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Kontekst: Nakon snažnog post-pandemijskog oporavka tokom 2021. godine, ekonomski rast se nastavio po umjerenoj stopi od 3,9 posto tokom 2022. godine (nakon 7,4 posto u 2021. godini), dok se Bosna i Hercegovina (BiH) suočavala sa negativnim udarima po pitanju cijena hrane i energije, ekonomskim usporavanjem u Evropi i kontinuiranim političkim tenzijama na domaćem planu. Inflacija je u padu nakon što je u oktobru/listopadu dostigla svoj najviši ikada zabilježeni nivo od 17,4 posto, ali je i dalje visoka. Većina strukturalnih reformi je još uvijek na čekanju a status kandidata za članstvo u EU, koji je BiH dobila u decembru/prosincu 2022. godine, još nije doveo do zamaha.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to place significant headwinds on the European economy, with implications for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). With a further slowing of activity in Europe and declining commodity prices, growth is projected to decelerate to 2 percent in 2023 and inflation to 6 percent. Growth will remain low at 3 percent and inflation will only gradually return to 2 percent in outer years. Downside risks are high and include a possible abrupt slowdown in Europe, an intensification of domestic political tensions, and the materialization of financial risks. Strengthening public enterprise oversight and governance, improving the business environment, and digitalizing the economy are key to accelerating private sector led growth. An immediate priority is to adopt a new anti-money laundering law. Urgent reforms are also needed to enhance corruption prevention and enforcement efforts. Increased efforts are needed to prepare for the introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and to transition away from coal to green energy.
Mr. Jan Kees Martijn
,
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
William Lindquist
,
Yen N Mooi
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Hoda Selim
, and
Armine Khachatryan
Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly an important vehicle for several Western Balkan countries to increase investment to reduce their infrastructure gaps. While there are benefits to well-designed and implemented PPPs, they also carry a potential for large fiscal risks and increased costs if not managed well. Countries with successful PPP programs typically benefit from a clear and well-designed PPP governance framework, which covers all stages of the PPP life cycle. Western Balkan countries need to address gaps in their PPP governance frameworks to fully reap the potential benefits from PPPs.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and opportunities in Kosovo’s electricity sector. Energy market pressures in Europe are likely to continue throughout 2023. Higher energy prices represent a heavy blow for Kosovo’s current account. The tariff-setting framework is broadly sound, but the increase in European electricity prices has led to challenges. Higher European electricity prices have stressed the sector’s flows, creating liquidity choke points. Higher European electricity prices and lower domestic electricity supply may result is significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. In the short term, more efficient use of electricity should reduce demand and contribute to balance the system in 2023. In the medium term, boosting energy efficiency and diversification away from lignite is priority. To that end, creating a fund for the renewal and expansion of domestic electricity generation capacity in green technologies could be explored. Starting to explore carbon pricing would strengthen price signals and result in more efficient demand and less carbon intensity.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is facing considerable challenges just as it has rebounded from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Spillovers from the war in Ukraine are fueling inflation and weighing on domestic spending and external demand, while domestic political tensions are hampering economic policies and reforms. The authorities need to protect the most vulnerable against inflation, preserve financial stability, and scale up public investment and accelerate reforms to strengthen the single economic space and put the economy on a higher medium-term growth trajectory. The currency board continues to serve BiH well and should be further strengthened. Strict enforcement of prudential requirements and the development of contingency plans for future liquidity pressures are essential for preserving financial stability. The creation of a countrywide registry of bank accounts of individuals would strengthen anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing practices and asset recovery.