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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: 2023 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with the Kingdom of The Netherlands—Aruba discusses that economic activity rebounded strongly. Real gross domestic product grew by 27.6 percent in 2021 and further expanded by 7.3 percent in 2022, reinforced by the recovery of tourist arrivals following the lifting of the restrictions introduced during the pandemic. The economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2023 as the post-pandemic rebound in tourist arrivals wanes. Inflation is projected to decelerate with slowing domestic demand and lower international commodity prices. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. A steeper-than-expected global slowdown, especially in the U.S., could reduce tourist arrivals. Climate change is an ever-present risk through both rising sea levels and more volatile weather events. Domestically, risks to the outlook are largely related to the potential of insufficient fiscal adjustment. Increasing resilience to climate change is a priority. A concrete action plan for adaptation would help prioritize infrastructure investments that improve the physical resilience of low-lying areas.
Keywords:
CPI data; CPI survey; quarterly balance of payments; Aruban economy; price sample; IMF staff calculation; External sector statistics; Tourism; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: 2021 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Supplement
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Aruba managed to contain the pandemic in the first months of the outbreak but experienced a resurgence of new infections in the summer. The economic impact of COVID-19 is particularly severe given Aruba’s high dependency on tourism. While the authorities’ swift response has helped contain the human and economic damage, it could not avoid a severe GDP contraction.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; budget proposal; staff analysis; tranche of financial support; debt sustainability risk; COVID-19; Tourism; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: 2019 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba’s economic recovery continues, although at a slowing pace. The authorities have managed well the impact of the crisis in Venezuela through diversification of product markets and tourism sources. Nonetheless, a deepening of the crisis is a downside risk—mainly through a potentially sizable influx of immigrants and refugees. It is recommended to identify additional reform measures to achieve Aruba’s fiscal targets. These measures should involve a mix of revenue increases and expenditure restraint, and be prioritized, sequenced, equitable, and well-communicated to minimize implementation risks and ensure the measures’ durability. The government devised a reform agenda with fiscal consolidation as a key pillar. Additional measures are needed to achieve the authorities’ fiscal targets. The additional adjustment should contain a mix of tax reforms and expenditure rationalization. The fiscal measures in 2019 are expected to deliver a large upfront increase in revenues but it will be important to strike a balance between revenue increases and expenditure restraint in subsequent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Aruba; GDP; article IV consultation discussion; discussion; Last Article IV consultation discussion; government finance statistics; central bank; IMF staff estimate; money market rate; Tourism; Fiscal consolidation; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Aruba’s recession, which began around mid-2015. Real GDP contracted by 0.5 and 0.2 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Weakness in activity was broad based in 2016. Domestic demand contracted by 3.0 percent. Exports grew only 0.3 percent owing to weak tourism and shrinking nontourism exports. Imports contracted by 3.5 percent, reflecting weak demand on the back of fiscal consolidation and weak tourism growth. Monetary policy was unchanged during 2015–16. The banking system remains resilient. Banks maintain elevated capital buffers, have relatively low nonperforming loans, and are profitable.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; discussion; IMF staff calculation; monetary policy stance; central bank financing; article IV consultation discussion; per capita income; money market rate; Fiscal consolidation; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY2017-FY2019 Medium-Term Budget
International Monetary Fund
The net administrative budget for FY2017 has been set at US$1,072.5 million. After four years of zero real growth, the FY 2017 budget includes an increase of ½ percent in constant dollar terms to cover the institution’s rising IT and physical security costs, as well as a small adjustment for increases in the salary structure and in the costs of non-personnel expenses. The budget envelope also entails reallocation measures of 1.5 percent of resources and institution-wide savings to meet new high priority tasks and commitments to the membership. The FY2017 capital budget, set at US$60.5 million, provides financing for new capital projects for building facilities and IT.
Keywords:
PP; information technology; Medium-Term budget; capital budget Envelope; average cost; unspent FY; Fund staff; security cost; IT system; audio visual; Fund policy; policy advice; IT environment; Fund's cost-recovery model; TA cost-recovery; budget proposal; core activity; Budget planning and preparation; Securities; Capital budget; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ economic recovery from the global economic crisis has been curbed by a series of significant natural disasters. These, combined with the economic downturn following the global financial crisis, have prevented the economy from returning to its long-term potential real GDP growth. The overall fiscal balance is estimated to have narrowed to 4.75 percent of GDP in 2014. After an estimated 1.1 percent growth rate in 2014, growth is projected to pick up modestly to 2.1 percent in 2015 on improvements in tourism and agriculture and enhanced implementation of much-needed rehabilitation and reconstruction projects.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; loan; government; government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines; IDB lending; CARTAC mission; lending capacity; building and loan association; concessionary loan resource; public finance; Natural disasters; Credit bureaus; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation Discussions
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba has been recovering from a severe double-dip recession. The economy faced two major shocks over the past five years—the global financial crisis and shutdown of the Valero oil refinery in 2012. After a strong recovery in 2013 with growth reaching 4.75 percent, the pace of activity moderated in 2014. In 2015, growth is projected to rise to 2.25 percent. The tourism sector—the mainstay of the Aruban economy—is envisaged to grow, albeit at a slower rate. Moreover, domestic demand is slated to recover notably amid subsiding policy uncertainty and as key public-private partnership projects move forward.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Aruba; financing; below-the-line financing; Aruban economy; money market rate; financing category; Aruba's reputation; Tourism; Commercial banks; Renewable energy; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands: Aruba: 2013 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report, Informational Annex, Press Release
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic output in Aruba remains 12 percent below its pre-crisis level, with recovery slower than others in the Caribbean region. The non-oil current account (CA) balance, which mostly reflects developments in the tourism sector, has improved since mid-2000 reaching a balanced position in 2012. The overall CA balance, however, after being in surplus for years, showed volatilities in recent years reflecting oil-sector developments. In 2012, it recorded a surplus of 5 percent of GDP. In 2013, real output is projected to grow by 1¼ percent. Robust tourism growth and some pickup in consumption from projected deflation will support the subdued near-term recovery.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Aruba; financing; holding; below-the-line financing; government finance statistics; financing category; money market rate; deficit beginning; Tourism; Caribbean; South America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns requires identifying the underlying factors. This paper presents an overview of Aruba’s economic growth performance since 1990, analyzes factors behind the slowdown, and discusses how potential growth can be sustained. It suggests that Aruba should aim to finance its renewable energy and other future growth initiatives sustainably.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Aruba; cost; revenue; spending; impact multiplier; market share; side measure; replacement rate; structural competitiveness; projected decline; physical capital; Aging; Pensions; Caribbean; South America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands: Curaçao and Saint Maarten: 2011 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund
The two newly autonomous countries within the Kingdom of the Netherlands face substantial challenges. Growth has been low, and unemployment high. The current account deficit has widened to worrisome levels, increasing the vulnerability of the peg to the U.S. dollar and stimulating calls for dollarizing or dissolving the currency union. A substantial adjustment is needed to bring the underlying current account deficit to historically sustainable levels over the medium term. This could be facilitated by measures to restrain credit growth, supported by fiscal consolidation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; consumer price index; deficit; expenditure; total consumer price index; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Netherlands Antillies debt; exchange rate; deficit outcome; central bank; Current account deficits; Debt relief; Exports; Caribbean; Global