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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 119 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Armenia, Republic of x
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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Armenia: Technical Assistance Report-Personal Income Tax and Social Security Contribution Gaps
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report presents results on a review of data available to the State Revenue Committee for estimating the Personal Income Tax and Social Security Contribution gaps. It is concluded that SRC has sufficient quality data available from operational audits to assess the gaps.
Keywords:
Personal Income Tax Gap; Social Security Contributions Gap; Bottom-up approach; Operational audits; Heckman Sample Selection model; Republic of Armenia.; SSC gap; PIT gap measurement methodology; social security contribution gap; PIT gap; SRC data; assessed PIT; Personal income tax; Auditing; Tax audits; Corporate income tax; Tax gap; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This page presents IMF’s Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and Request for Modifications of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause (MPCC) for Armenia. Armenia’s economic outlook remains positive, with strong, albeit gradually moderating, growth projected at around 6 percent in 2024 and around 5 percent in 2025, alongside low inflation. The program is broadly on track. All quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for end-June 2024 were met, although lower than expected inflation breached the lower-inner MPCC band. The SBA, which the Armenian authorities are treating as precautionary, aims to support the government’s policy and reform agenda to preserve economic and financial stability and support strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth. Advancing structural reforms would support sustainable and inclusive growth. Continued efforts to boost labor market participation, especially among youth, women, and vulnerable groups are important. Reforms to diversify exports, improve the business environment, strengthen governance, and advance climate policy implementation are critical to enhance economic resilience and increase potential growth.
Keywords:
year-over-year inflation target; end-June headline inflation inflation rate; inflation expectation; preliminary data; Armenia's national assembly; International reserves; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Armenia: Technical Assistance Report-Corporate Income Tax Gap Prediction 2023 Based on Corporate Income Tax Returns
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report presents estimates of predictions of the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) gap for Armenia for 2023. The predicted CIT Gap is based on not-yet audited tax returns. The CIT gap is predicted to be 25.5 to 34.1 percent of potential CIT liability in 2023.
Keywords:
Predicted Corporate Income Tax Gap; Bottom-up approach; Not-yet audited tax returns; Heckman Sample Selection model; Republic of Armenia.; CIT gap; CIT gap estimate; IMF team; gap analysis; IMF short term expert; Corporate income tax; Auditing; Business enterprises; Tax gap; Tax audit performance measurement
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Armenia: Technical Assistance Report-Corporate Income Tax Gap Estimation Based on Operational Audits
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report presents estimates of the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) gap for Armenia for the period 2020–2022. The CIT gap is based on a bottom-up approach using operational audits. The average CIT gap in Armenia is estimated at 26.4-35.2 percent of potential CIT liability.
Keywords:
Republic of Armenia; Corporate Income Tax Gap; Bottom-up approach; Operational audits; Heckman Sample Selection model; Machine learning model; Select cases for future audits.; CIT Gap; CIT gap estimate; A. CIT gap result; CIT gap; Corporate income tax; Auditing; Income; Tax audit performance measurement; Business enterprises
Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries
Thordur Jonasson
,
Sheheryar Malik
,
Kay Chung
, and
Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
Keywords:
exchange rate risk risk management; debt portfolio; public debt manager; currency exposure; risk-management strategy; Government debt management; Debt management; Currencies; Exchange rate risk; Foreign currency debt; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Third Review under the Stand-by Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Armenia’s Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and Request for Modifications of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. On the back of high domestic and external demand, gross domestic product growth remained strong by historical standards at 8.7 percent in 2023 and is expected to moderate to a more sustainable level of around 6 percent in 2024. The SBA, which the Armenian authorities are treating as precautionary, aims to support the government’s policy and reform agenda to preserve economic and financial stability and support strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth. Fiscal policy should strike a balance between preserving macro-fiscal stability and accommodating rising spending pressures. Careful spending prioritization and decisive tax policy and revenue administration efforts will be needed to create fiscal space, including for social integration, security spending, further infrastructure development, and a healthcare overhaul. Structural reforms should focus on strengthening revenue mobilization, fiscal risk and public investment management, the Central Bank of Armenia’s supervisory framework, the employment and social assistance programs, export diversification, enhancing governance, and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; energy inflation; monetary policy stance; supervisory framework; transparency policy; security spending; Inflation; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Armenia: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening State-Owned Enterprises Accountability Framework
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Over the past decades the Republic of Armenia has implemented significant reforms to reduce the state footprint in their economy and to improve the performance of the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) where the Government intends to retain ownership. The Government has taken concrete steps focusing on improving the financial transparency and fiscal viability of SOEs. This report discusses how the Government can further strengthen the SOE financial accountability, transparency and oversight, and SOEs corporate governance in line with good international practices. These measures should be combined with further efforts in reducing the number of SOEs, focusing on those that do not align with the Government strategic priorities and the state ownership policy.
Keywords:
CD; Republic of Armenia; State-Owned Enterprises; Oversight; Corporate Governance; Accountability; Transparency.; state-owned enterprises accountability framework; I. SOE landscape; IMF resident Representative; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; Armenia's SOE portfolio; Public enterprises; Fiscal risks; Financial statements; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: 2023 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Armenia’s 2023 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. The Armenian authorities continue to treat the SBA as precautionary. Armenia’s strong growth momentum continued through 2023. Supported by robust private consumption and investment, the economy is projected to grow by 7 percent in 2023 before moderating to 5 percent in 2024. Armenia’s economy has managed to overcome recent external shocks and faces a favorable outlook, with strong growth in the context of moderate inflation. The program performance remains broadly satisfactory. Key policy priorities include preserving macroeconomic stability, building fiscal buffers to support priority infrastructure and social spending, managing fiscal risk, enhancing the monetary policy, macroprudential, and supervisory frameworks, and strengthening economic resilience by advancing structural reforms in the labor and product markets, access to finance, and governance.
Keywords:
end-June headline inflation inflation rate; inflation expectation; Armenian authorities; priority capital; SOE ownership policy; Tax administration core functions; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the Central Bank of Armenia’s (CBA) monetary policy framework. It discusses the CBA’s track record with inflation targeting; describes the risk-based approach to price stability, offering insights on its potential benefits, while cautioning of likely pitfalls and highlighting the clear challenges for its operationalization in Armenia’s context; and emphasizes areas in which the monetary policy framework needs to strengthen further to ensure its effectiveness, especially should the new monetary policy approach be fully implemented. Enhancements in the CBA’s monetary policy framework should be guided by best principles. Publishing a comprehensive expert assessment of CBA’s monetary policy framework will guide the reforms and raise the credibility of the enhanced framework. While such enhancements to the monetary policy framework are being put in place, an operationalization of the risk management approach to price stability may present important challenges. The communication strategy should not only detail the decision-making process, but also strengthen the explanation of how policy will respond if risks materialize.
Keywords:
Armenia's monetary policy framework; inflation targeting track record; I. social assistance program; benefit incidence; IMF staff calculation; impact of program; family benefit Program; Social assistance spending; Monetary policy frameworks; Maternity and childcare benefit spending; Total factor productivity; Inflation targeting; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper analyses Republic of Armenia’s First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Armenia’s economic activity was very strong in 2022, with real gross domestic product growing at 12.6 percent, driven by robust consumption and external demand. Growth is projected to be at 5.5 percent in 2023. The SBA, which the Armenian authorities are treating as precautionary, aims to ensure policy continuity, advance structural reforms, and maintain macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal stability. The program is broadly on track. All end-December quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets were met, and good progress was made toward the completion of structural benchmarks. The end-March structural benchmark requiring the adoption of a decree clarifying the mandate, reporting, transparency, and viability requirements for the Armenian National Interests Fund was completed as a prior action for the review. The economic outlook for 2023 is generally positive, although risks remain substantial.
Keywords:
end-December inflation; monetary policy tightening; revenue mobilization effort; addressing inflation; headline inflation; transparency policy; Global; Middle East and Central Asia