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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 108 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Antigua and Barbuda x
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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Saint Kitts and Nevis: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Improving Estimates of Gross Domestic Product Mission (June 5–16, 2023)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A CARTAC National Accounts technical assistance mission to St Kitts and Nevis, re-referenced the volume estimates of quarterly GDP for the years 2012–2022 using 2018 as the base and reference year from the previous 2006 base year. The series were developed for both Saint Kitts and for Nevis and a combined series for the Federal aggregate. The re-referencing exercise provided an opportunity to introduce some other improvements. Notably, the calculation of Final Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) consumed by each economic sector businesses and its allocation to economic activities. The updated series were also prepared using the International Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activity (ISIC) revision 4 . These improvements align the updated GDP series with the standards set out in the 2008 System of National Accounts. In addition, the current price estimates of GDP by expenditure were also reviewed.
Keywords:
Saint Kitts and Nevis; Re-refencing; Final Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured; GDP; System of National Accounts.; GDP-p series; business processing documentation; estimates of GDP; gross domestic product mission; IMF's Statistics department; GDP estimate; Manufacturing; Imports; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2024 Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation on Common Policies of Member Countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with member countries on common policies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) discusses that the economies have registered a strong recovery after successive external shocks. Fiscal and external balances have improved, but public debt and current account deficits remain high. The financial system has been stable and liquid, although it continues to be confronted with asset quality weaknesses and rising risks in the non-bank financial sector. Longstanding structural challenges affecting private investment and employment create a drag on growth going forward. The regional priority is to rebuild buffers while protecting the fiscal space for priority public investment and social spending. Social policies and institutional labor market reforms would help improve competitiveness by addressing structural constraints to employment and labor productivity. Concerted efforts to address gaps in core economic data improve transparency and strengthen resource capacity for data collection would support calibration of economic policies.
Keywords:
ECCU country; asset quality; ECCU member-country government; ECCU member country; CARTAC TA mission; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit bureaus; Credit; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) focuses on efficient, sustainable, and fair pension schemes. Despite recent reform efforts, the financial sustainability of the ECCU’s defined benefit social security schemes remains under strain, largely reflecting the still relatively low contributions and generous payouts. This, coupled with a rapidly ageing population and high labor market informality, increases the need for a comprehensive review and adoption of further parametric and non-parametric reforms of the pension systems to avoid abrupt and more sizable adjustments in the future as well as to reduce the risks of old-age poverty. This annex reviews pension schemes in the ECCU, with a focus on assessing their design and performance and identifying policy options to improve their efficiency, fairness, and sustainability. Key recommendations include swift adoption of further comprehensive reforms to address design weaknesses, improving coverage, investment strategy, administrative efficiency, and transparency, and establishing automatic adjustment mechanisms.
Keywords:
NIS pension schemes Overview; labor market performance; public sector pension schemes; labor markets in the ECCU; ECCU migration; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Retirement; Labor markets; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Antigua and Barbuda: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Antigua and Barbuda’s economy continues to bounce back from the sharp contraction experienced during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Real activity is expected to return to prepandemic levels this year, with growth projected at 5.7 percent, driven by a rebound in tourism and construction activity. The strong recovery from the pandemic provides a window of opportunity to decisively address Antigua and Barbuda’s fiscal and external imbalances, build buffers, and invest in resilience. Higher revenues and expenditure restraint should reduce the public debt and fiscal financing needs further. The social safety net should provide more targeted support to the vulnerable. Stronger fiscal institutions are needed to enhance the credibility of fiscal plans. There is scope to improve the oversight and regulation of credit unions.
Keywords:
sound cash management; debt management strategy; money market rate; ECCB website; E.C. dollar; External sector statistics; Arrears; Real sector statistics; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Antigua and Barbuda: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is on a gradual recovery path, following a sharp contraction in real output of 20 percent in 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The growth momentum is expected to carry into 2022 and 2023, with real gross domestic product projected to expand by 6 and 5 1/2 percent respectively, supported by strong tourist arrivals, foreign direct investment in the hospitality sector, and public sector projects. Continued fiscal consolidation efforts and the growth recovery have helped improve the fiscal position, but outturns underperformed the targets envisaged in the government’s medium-term fiscal strategy, while gross financing needs and arrears to domestic and external creditors remain high. It is recommended to strengthen the policy framework that underpins the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy to institutionalize fiscal discipline. In addition, the report also highlights that it is imperative to mitigate the effects of rising living costs through replacing broad-based price controls and subsidies with targeted transfers and a strengthening of the social safety net.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; money market rate; ECCB website; E.C. dollar; response rate; External sector statistics; Natural disasters; Arrears; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Natural Disasters and Scarring Effects
Weicheng Lian
,
Jose Ramon Moran
, and
Raadhika Vishvesh
This paper uses a novel empirical approach, following the literature on hysteresis, to explore medium-term scarring of natural disasters for countries vulnerable to climate change. By quantifying the dynamic effects of natural disasters on real GDP per capita for a large number of episodes using a synthetic control approach (SCA) and focusing on severe shocks, we demonstrate that a persistently large deviation of real GDP per capita from the counterfacutal trend exists five years after a severe shock in many countries. The findings highlight the importance and urgency of building ex-ante resilience to avoid scarring effects for countries prone to natural disasters, such as those in the Caribbean region.
Keywords:
Natural disasters; scarring effects; synthetic control approach; IMF working papers; scarring effect; ante resilience; medium-term scarring; output effect; Tourism; Climate change; Caribbean; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Growth decelerated marginally in 2017, as the continued decline in CBI inflows slowed growth in construction. Consumer inflation was low, partly due to a small contraction in food prices. The overall fiscal balance remained in surplus but has deteriorated markedly since its 2013- peak, and the debt-to-GDP ratio increased marginally from the previous year. The current account deficit remains high and only marginally declined in 2017, as the decline in CBI receipts was more than offset by growing tourism receipts and a significant decrease in imports. Foreign reserves at the ECCB remained at comfortable levels, well above the various reserve-adequacy metrics. The banking sector has reported capital and liquidity ratios that are well above the regulatory minimum but has elevated NPLs and risks, including delays in completing the debt-land swap arrangement and loss of Corresponding Banking Relationships (CBRs).
Keywords:
SKN government; SKN economy; CBI program; NPL resolution strategy; due diligence; Commercial banks; Public sector; Government finance statistics; Credit; Caribbean
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Recent developments in the Western Hemisphere—that is, the United States/Canada and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)—have been dominated by the impact of two distinct global shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A third shock—the tightening of financial conditions—is now shaping the outlook. After contracting sharply in 2020, most of the Western Hemisphere’ economies recovered strongly in 2021 and early 2022, helped by the global recovery, the normalization of service sectors, and booming commodity prices. However, inflation pressures built up with pandemic-related disruptions, expansionary policies, rebounding demand, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy and food prices. The swift response of LAC’s monetary authorities to rising inflation—well ahead of other economies—helped contain price pressures and keep long-term inflation expectations anchored, but inflation remains high. Amid global monetary and financial tightening, and the ensuing slowdown in global growth and softening of commodity prices, activity is expected to decelerate throughout the Western Hemisphere in late 2022 and 2023, while inflation pressures are expected to recede gradually. Downside risks dominate the outlook and stem from tighter financial conditions, a more pronounced global slowdown, and entrenched inflation. For LAC, a sharp fall in commodity prices and social unrest are important risks. With inflation yet to abate and most economies still operating at or near potential, monetary policy should avoid easing prematurely and must stay the course. Clear communication of policy intentions will be key to reducing uncertainty and keeping inflation expectations anchored. Fiscal support deployed to mitigate the impact of inflation on the most vulnerable should be accompanied by compensating measures, where fiscal space does not exist, but also support monetary authorities’ efforts to tame inflation. Given rising financing costs, strengthening fiscal frameworks and advancing with inclusive fiscal consolidation—that protects key social objectives—will be essential to credibly putting public debt on a firm downward path while ensuring social stability. Boosting LAC’s medium-term growth requires raising productivity and good-quality public and private investment. Supply-side policies should focus on strengthening human capital, simplifying and modernizing labor regulations, and lifting barriers to firm entry and exit.

Keywords:
country abbreviation; tourism dependent; inflation expectation; headline inflation; IMF staff calculation; inflation pressure; nominal GDP; Inflation; Commodity prices; Energy prices; Food prices; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2022 Article IV Consultation with Member Countries on Common Policies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that with Eastern Caribbean Currency Union economies slowly emerging from the pandemic with scars, the impact of the war in Ukraine is a setback to the nascent recovery. Higher food and energy prices, amid ongoing supply disruptions and intra-regional transportation bottlenecks, are raising inflation, eroding income, lowering output growth, worsening fiscal and external positions, and threatening food and energy security. The financial system has remained broadly stable so far, with adequate capital and liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans remain high and could rise further following the expiration of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank’s loan moratoria program. The outlook is subject to large downside risks, primarily from further increases in commodity prices and new coronavirus disease variants amid vaccine hesitancy, in addition to the ever-present threat of natural disasters. The report recommends that maintaining fiscal prudence while protecting the vulnerable through health spending and temporary targeted transfers and enhanced social safety nets to cope with rising living costs. Adopting well-designed rule-based fiscal frameworks would help achieve fiscal consolidation, enhance resilience to shocks such as natural disasters, and preserve the credibility of the regional debt target.
Keywords:
ECCU economy; ECCU member country; ECCU country; ECCU member states; ECCU region; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global; Climate change; Loans
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on scarring effects of the pandemic on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s (ECCU). Assessing the extent of the scarring effects is essential for the conduct of future economic policy in the ECCU. A better understanding of the factors affecting the scarring effects and their fiscal implications could help inform the discussions on policies needed to overcome them, especially for economies with limited economic diversification and high vulnerability to frequent shocks and natural disasters such as the ECCU countries. The significant output contraction would generate scarring effects in the ECCU countries. The degree of scarring could vary with countries’ economic structure and policy responses to the pandemic. ECCU countries need to balance difficult tradeoffs to mitigate scaring effects of the pandemic, other recent shocks, and limited fiscal policy space. In the short term, the priorities are to continue health spending to cope with the pandemic and use effective social transfers to cope with rising living costs. In the medium term, moving from income support and job retention measures to adopting active labor market policies would facilitate the reallocation of workers and resources to their most productive uses and help foster productivity growth.
Keywords:
responsibility framework; ECCU country; difference in Debt-to-GDP projection; B. output loss; Real GDP loss; Fiscal rules; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Global; Caribbean