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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Methodology and Overview of the IMF’s World Revenue Longitudinal Database
Mario Mansour
,
Marijn Verhoeven
,
Fayçal Sawadogo
, and
Benedict Chu Sheen Tan
This note presents the methodology behind the IMF’s World Revenue Longitudinal Database, a comprehensive data set that tracks government revenue trends since the early 1990s. With data for 193 countries, including 190 IMF member countries, the World Revenue Longitudinal Database provides policymakers, researchers, and the public with invaluable insights into the evolution of the level and composition of revenues and tax revenues. It is a unique, consistent, and reliable source for comparing countries around the world, helping to shape policies that support the Sustainable Development Goals, climate action, and economic equity. Updated annually, the database and accompanying technical note provide a concise overview of recent revenue developments, data revisions, and methodological improvements, making it an essential resource for understanding revenue mobilization developments at the global level.
Keywords:
World Revenue Longitudinal Database; tax revenues; nontax revenues; tax potential; IMF's World Revenue Longitudinal Database; data IMF Library; IMF region; IMF's World revenue; revenue development; Income tax systems; Income and capital gains taxes; Government finance statistics; Natural resources; Global; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific; Middle East and Central Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that United Arab Emirates (UAE) economic growth remains strong, driven by robust domestic activity. Non-hydrocarbon growth has benefitted from healthy tourism flows and increased activity in the construction, manufacturing, and financial services sectors. The UAE has continued to experience strong capital inflows, reflecting commodity revenue, safe haven flows, and investment drawn by social and business-friendly reforms. This has boosted central bank foreign reserves and surplus domestic liquidity. Bank balance sheets have strengthened further, with capital buffers well above regulatory minima, and credit has continued to grow despite policy interest rate hikes. The outlook is subject to uncertainty and external risks, but large sovereign buffers help mitigate vulnerabilities. Intensification of geopolitical tensions and geoeconomics fragmentation, or an abrupt global slowdown, sharp correction in global asset prices, or commodity price volatility could lead to a reduction in the flow of goods, capital, and tourism.
Keywords:
government bond bond market; article IV consultation discussion; World bank relations; transparency policy; fund holdings of currency; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial statements; Global
Cover Fiscal Monitor, October 2024
Fiscal Monitor, October 2024
Putting a Lid on Public Debt
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Global public debt is elevated. It is projected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024 and will rise over the medium term. This chapter shows that risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside. In a severely adverse scenario, global debt is estimated to be nearly 20 percentage points of GDP higher three years ahead than the baseline projection, reaching 115 percent of GDP. Much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt with high probability. Now is an opportune time for rebuilding fiscal buffers and delaying is costly. Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and strengthening fiscal governance is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability.

Keywords:
public debt; debt-at-risk; sovereign yields; fiscal adjustment; fiscal framework; fiscal governance; unidentified debt; contingent liabilities; economy abbreviation; debt restructuring process; inflation expectation; growth resilience; debt vulnerability; emerging market economy; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Public sector; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Staff Report for the First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Somalia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Somalia’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria. Real GDP growth is expected to rise to 3.7 percent in 2024 compared to 2.8 percent in 2023, supported by continued recovery in agriculture, greater remittances, and higher investment. Somalia has continued to advance its reform agenda and program performance has been strong. Policy priorities are to maintain fiscal sustainability, strengthen revenues and public financial management, promote financial deepening, improve governance, and enhance statistics. Ongoing reforms to strengthen central bank institutional capacity are commendable. Careful formulation of the monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks is important in the context of the planned currency reform. Measures to bolster inclusive growth and strengthen resilience are important. The authorities are focused on building capacity in the petroleum sector and implementing its legal framework. Addressing food insecurity, building climate resilience, and enhancing trade integration are central to ensuring Somalia’s long-term development.
Keywords:
Somali authorities; program floor; staff appraisal; program ceiling; Net international reserves; Debt relief; Debt service; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
Bada Han
,
Rashad Ahmed
,
Joshua Aizenman
, and
Yothin Jinjarak
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Keywords:
Sectoral Debt; Household Debt; Dollar Cycle; Emerging Markets; debt growth; household debt growth; debt level; appreciation shock; debt cycle; Business cycles; Consumption; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative-Completion Point Document
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper on Somalia focuses on completion point document for enhanced heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative. Somalia has been rebuilding state institutions and the economy since the end of the devastating civil war, with strong support from the international community. Somalia has implemented critical reforms in support of pro-poor growth, poverty reduction, better public financial management and debt management. These reforms establish the conditions for the effective use of irrevocable debt relief to support the people of Somalia. Deepening structural reforms after the Completion Point will be critical to boost private sector growth and create fiscal space to invest more in human development and infrastructure in support of inclusive and resilient growth. The Somali authorities remain firmly committed to sustaining the reform momentum post-HIPC to build resilience, promote inclusive growth, and reduce poverty. The World Bank and IMF will continue working together to provide the technical assistance and policy guidance the authorities need to achieve these goals. The IMF will continue its engagement with Somalia in the context of the new three-year IMF financial arrangement as well as capacity development support sponsored by the Somalia Country Fund.
Keywords:
HIPC debt relief; MDRI debt relief; reform journey; Somali authorities; IDA portfolio; IMF press release No. 23/437; Somalia's debt relief process; reconciliation exercise; Debt relief; Debt service; Arrears; Debt service ratios; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) discusses economic prospects and policy priorities for the GCC countries. A comprehensive package of policies should be implemented to respond to near-term shocks and uncertainty and to firmly address medium- and long-term challenges. In the near term, fiscal policy should remain prudent, avoiding procyclical spending and using the windfall from higher oil prices to rebuild buffers. Targeted and temporary fiscal measures could be undertaken to respond to shocks, if they materialize. In the medium term, GCC countries should continue pursuing fiscal consolidation consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability, supported by a credible rules-based medium-term fiscal framework. Continued financial sector reforms are needed to support growth and stability. Structural policies should continue focusing on diversifying the economies away from hydrocarbon. Reform efforts aimed at further enhancing product market regulations, labor markets, and governance will spur growth, as will efficient investments in digital and green initiatives to accelerate transformation and support energy transition. The industrial policy should be carefully calibrated and not substitute for structural reforms while minimizing related inefficiencies.
Keywords:
Gulf Cooperation Council; GCC Countries; OPEC; GCC country; centrality indices; policies in the GCC; GCC net; GCC's acceleration; financial market; Inflation; Oil prices; Climate finance; Financial statements; Global; Middle East
Cover Fiscal Monitor, October 2023
Fiscal Monitor, October 2023
Climate Crossroads: Fiscal Policies in a Warming World
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

The report takes stock of mitigation policies across countries and presents the trilemma facing policymakers of balancing between achieving climate goals, debt sustainability, and political feasibility. New insights from the report shows that the only way to achieve these joint goals is through a carefully calibrated mix of revenue and spending-based policies. Carbon pricing is a necessary instrument and should be part of the policy mix. However, it is not sufficient and should be complemented by policies to address market failures and catalyze private financing and investment in low-carbon technologies. Robust fiscal transfers are needed to protect vulnerable households, workers, and communities during the green transition.

Keywords:
economy abbreviation; p LW; support disinflation effort; fiscal policy support; statistics manual; inflation expectation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Fiscal stance; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that United Arab Emirates (UAE) economic growth strengthened in 2022, benefitting from a rapid and effective coronavirus disease response, supportive fiscal measures, and the benefits of earlier social and business-friendly reforms. The economic outlook remains positive, supported by strong domestic activity. Overall, gross domestic product is projected to grow at 3.6 percent in 2023, with non-hydrocarbon growth of 3.8 percent driven by continued tourism activity and increased capital expenditure. Strong reform efforts continue under the UAE 2050 strategies. Advancement on Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements will boost trade and integration in global value chains and further attract Foreign Direct Investment. In addition, the benefits of artificial intelligence and digitalization and investments in enabling infrastructure will further support economic diversification, foster a smooth energy transition, and help address vulnerabilities from global decarbonization efforts. Long-term vulnerabilities from global decarbonization efforts are being addressed through commitments to climate initiatives and a balanced approach to energy transition.
Keywords:
reform effort; manufacturing sector producer price index; transparency policy; UAE's productivity; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; inflation dynamics in the UAE; Climate finance; Oil prices; Climate change; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Revenue Mobilization for a Resilient and Inclusive Recovery in the Middle East and Central Asia
Ms. Genevieve Verdier
,
Brett Rayner
,
Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora
,
Charles Vellutini
,
Ling Zhu
,
Vincent de Paul Koukpaizan
,
Alireza Marahel
,
Mahmoud Harb
,
Imen Benmohamed
,
Mr. Shafik Hebous
,
Andrew Okello
,
Nathalie Reyes
,
Thomas Benninger
, and
Bernard Sanya
Domestic revenue mobilization has been a longstanding challenge for countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. Insufficient revenue has often constrained priority social and infrastructure spending, reducing countries’ ability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals, improve growth prospects, and address climate related challenges. Moreover, revenue shortfalls have often been compensated by large and sustained debt accumulation, raising vulnerabilities in some countries, and limiting fiscal space to address future shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have compounded challenges to sustainable public finances, underscoring the need for revenue mobilization efforts. The recent global crises have also exacerbated existing societal inequalities and highlighted the importance of raising revenues in an efficient and equitable manner. This paper examines the scope for additional tax revenue mobilization and discusses policies to gradually raise tax revenue while supporting resilient growth and inclusion in the Middle East and Central Asia. The paper’s main findings are that excluding hydrocarbon revenues, the region’s average tax intake lags those of other regions; the region’s fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) face particular challenges in mobilizing tax revenue; In general, there is considerable scope to raise additional tax revenue; countries have made efforts to raise tax collection, but challenges remain; tax policy design, notably low tax rates and pervasive tax exemptions, is an important factor driving tax revenue shortfalls; weak tax compliance, reflecting both structural features and challenges in revenue administration, also plays a role; and personal income tax systems in the region vary in their progressivity—the extent to which the average tax rate increases with income—and in their ability to redistribute income. These findings provide insights for policy action to raise revenue while supporting resilient growth and inclusion. The paper’s analysis points to these priorities for the region to improve both efficiency and equity of tax systems: improving tax policy design to broaden the tax base and increase progressivity and redistributive capacity; strengthening revenue administration to improve compliance; and implementing structural reforms to incentivize tax compliance, formalization, and economic diversification.
Keywords:
Revenue mobilization; revenue gaps; tax compliance; compliance gaps; tax policy; tax revenue gap; estimated tax; Gini coefficient; revenue challenge; tax revenue shortfall; systems in the region; tax Effort; tax ratio; Personal income tax; Tax administration core functions; Tax collection; Corporate income tax; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; Tax return filing compliance