Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 1,810 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Financial institutions x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s economy lost momentum in 2023. The external position weakened, with the current account shifting to a deficit and foreign reserve accumulation slowing. While inflation continued to ease, it remained elevated. Available data indicate a deterioration in the underlying fiscal positions of many countries. The near-term outlook points to stronger economic activity, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024, supported by elevated oil prices and a rebound in oil output. However, the end-June 2024 regional policy assurance on NFA––and, according to preliminary information, the end-December 2024 targets––were not met, indicating a deviation in reserves from the targeted path. Debt vulnerabilities have also worsened in some countries, as evidenced by the growing pressures in the regional government debt market. Following the strong commitment expressed at the extraordinary Heads of State Summit in December 2024 to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen regional institutions, all countries are expected to tackle fiscal slippages, restore fiscal prudence, and implement structural reforms to steer the region toward a more resilient medium-term outlook. This should help reduce risks to the capacity to repay the Fund. However, the projections remain uncertain, as the details of corrective measures and reforms are still being finalized between staff and national authorities.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; CEMAC country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC heads of state; policy assurance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Government securities; Fiscal stance; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Evaluating Historical Episodes using Shock Decompositions in the DSGE Model
Zamid Aligishiev
,
Michael Ben-Gad
, and
Joseph Pearlman
We present alternative methods for calculating and interpreting the influence of exogenous shocks on historical episodes within the context of DSGE models. We show analytically why different methods for calculating shock decompositions can generate conflicting interpretations of the same historical episodes. We illustrate this point using an extended version of Drautzburg and Uhlig’s (2015) model of the U.S. economy, focusing on the periods 1964–1966, 1979–1987, 2006–2009, 2016–2020 and 2020–2023. We argue that the best method for analyzing particular episodes is one which isolates the influence of the shocks during the period under consideration and where the initial conditions represent the system’s distance from balanced growth path at the beginning of the episode.
Keywords:
DSGE model; Shock Decomposition; Financial Frictions; Fiscal Policy; copyright page; influence of the shock; monetary policy shock; differencing method; decomposition method; Sovereign bonds; Central bank policy rate; Private investment; Public investment spending; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Estimating Fiscal Multiplier for Qatar: Qatar
Ken Miyajima
Econometric results suggest that Qatar’s strong capital spending multiplier became less impactful as the stock of capital rose to a high level, likely as the marginal impact declined. This supports Qatar’s strategy to shifts the State’s role to an enabler of private sector-led growth, focusing on expenditure to support build human capital and implementation of broader reform guided by the Third National Development Strategy.
Keywords:
Capital spending; fiscal multiplier; GCC; Qatar; strategy to shift; Qatar's strategy; copyright page; Qatar country dummy; allocation decision; Fiscal multipliers; Current spending; Stocks; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Post-Pandemic Changes to Chile’s Financial Markets: Chile
Tatsushi Okuda
Pension fund withdrawals, rising public debt, and the Central Bank of Chile’s pandemic liquidity injections have reshaped Chile’s financial landscape. In the context of the diminished demand for local bonds, large non-financial corporations and the government relied more on foreign investors. Overall, Chile’s financial depth has diminished, and markets have become more volatile and sensitive to shocks. Restoring pension funds as well as continuing to strengthen market resilience and crisis response capabilities are essential for ensuring future financial stability.
Keywords:
Financial sector stability; Financial depth; Pension fund withdrawal; market resilience; pandemic liquidity injection; Chile's financial markets; I. Chilean pension funds; Pension spending; Sovereign bonds; Bonds; Corporate bonds; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
fan chart; household debt; Thailand's debt ceiling; public debt debt ceiling; estimates of debt limits; Debt limits; Consumer credit; Loans; Consumer loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
input-output linkage; housing wealth effect; growth slowdown; real estate sector; risk assessment; Pension spending; Exports; Mortgages; Loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Debt Crisis with Strategic Investors: Changes in Demand and the Role of Market Power
Ricardo Alves Monteiro
This paper documents changes in investors' demand for sovereign debt during a debt crisis. Using a dataset containing individual bids on Portuguese debt auctions, I document that bid functions become more inelastic during the crisis. That is, investors require bigger drops in price to buy additional units of debt, increasing the government’s marginal cost of issuing debt. I then decompose these changes in demand into two components: a fundamental component, due to changes in the valuation of the security, and a strategic component, that arises from investors' market power. I find that, although the role of market power is negligible in normal times, it gets more pronounced leading up to and during the crisis. The government is not able to extract the full surplus from strategic investors, and, as a result, the auction mechanism loses efficiency during that period. Finally, I discuss a possible mitigation strategy. Everything else constant, the use of shorter maturities could avoid higher inefficiency costs.
Keywords:
Debt auctions; default risk; demand elasticity; market power; debt auction; auction mechanism; investors' market power; mitigation strategy; bid function; Treasury bills and bonds; Debt default; Europe
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Cyber Risk: Regulation, Supervision and Testing
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The technical mission aimed to strengthen the cyber risk regulation and supervision, and testing for the National Bank of Georgia (NBG). The mission focused on (i) an assessment of NBG’s cyber risk regulation, (ii) an assessment of cyber risk supervisory arrangements of NBG, (iii) assisting in the development of a cyber testing framework, and (iv) assisting in the development of a methodology for cyber exercising and stress testing. The mission found that cyber risk regulations including incident reporting requirements are in place, but gaps remain. Cyber risk supervision practices need improvements and more focus on supervisory priorities. Information sharing practices within the financial sector require strengthening. Cyber testing and exercises are an area where significant improvements are needed. Overall, the mission found that the NBG would benefit with an overarching cyber strategy for its financial sector.
Keywords:
Cyber risk regulation; cybersecurity supervision; cyber testing; incident reporting; information sharing; Georgia; Central Bank.; offsite supervision activity; cybersecurity strategy; request of the National Bank of Georgia; information security Act; cybersecurity risk management regulation; Cyber risk; Financial sector; Commercial banks; Operational risk; Auditing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Cancellation of the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for a 36 Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Serbia’s Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Cancellation of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and Request for a 36 Month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Under the SBA, Serbia pursued ambitious reforms, helping achieve strong macroeconomic outcomes and a first ever investment grade rating in October 2024. By building on these accomplishments, the PCI will support the authorities in their efforts to demonstrate continued commitment to sound policies, sustain reform momentum, and anchor fiscal discipline. Under the PCI, public debt is slated to decline to 45 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and lower thereafter, balancing continued fiscal prudence with spending needs, including for public investment. Further progress with fiscal-structural and state-owned enterprise reforms will be crucial complements to fiscal discipline. A restrictive monetary policy stance will help guard against upside inflation risks. The stabilized exchange rate has served Serbia well, but greater flexibility could be considered over time.
Keywords:
tolerance band; SBA review; investment sentiment; energy investment needs; NBS decision; Budget planning and preparation; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of San Marino: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that San Marino’s economy has remained resilient, with economic activity stabilizing at high levels and record employment, despite the regional slowdown and high interest rates. Growth has slowed due to weakening external demand but remains positive as the decline in manufacturing activity has been offset by strong performance in the service sector. With easing financing conditions and the stabilization of external demand, growth is expected to pick up gradually. Inflation has declined to below two percent and it is expected to remain at low levels. The fiscal position is stronger than expected. The government has saved the cyclical tax revenues, kept expenditures in check, and achieved strong primary balance in 2023. Structural reforms are critical to lift potential growth. The conclusion of the EU association negotiations, which signals strong commitment to deeper integration with the EU, is welcome. The successful implementation of the agreement is a priority to enhance productivity and the authorities should ensure sufficient resources and staff are available to support implementation without undermining the fiscal consolidation path.
Keywords:
Sta balance of payments statistics; article IV consultation discussion; Sta government finance statistics; Sta GDDS metadata development; currency of San Marino; Fiscal stance; Nonperforming loans; Pension spending; Global; Europe