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This Global Financial Stability Note examines the growth of the pension fund sector and the potential financial stability implications. Historically, pension funds have been seen as a contributor to financial stability because of their long-term and well-diversified liabilities. However, the sector has undergone significant structural shifts accelerated by a prolonged period of low interest rates, increasing its exposure to traditional risks while introducing emerging risks; this is reflected in growing intra-financial sector interconnectedness and exposure to long-term sovereign bonds. The recent transition to higher interest rates should be positive for the pension sector, albeit its pace and abruptness has been associated with liquidity stress and contagion risks in some countries.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on Paraguay’s Fourth Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), Request for Modification of Targets, Second Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and Request for Rephasing Access. Buoyant activity continues, reflecting high consumer confidence and expanding services and manufacturing sectors. Going forward, it would be essential to maintaining fiscal sustainability and continue with the structural reform efforts. The program performance under the PCI has been solid, underpinned by actions to preserve macroeconomic stability to enhance the country’s economic growth prospects. Progress on the climate agenda under the RSF remains strong, bolstering Paraguay's resilience to climate shocks. Stabilizing the finances of the public pension system should remain a priority. Monetary policy should continue to be guided by data when contemplating further easing. The structural reform implementation should be accelerated in promoting growth and inclusiveness specifically through reforms in labor markets, addressing a high level of informality, and improving governance and addressing corruption.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The technical mission aimed to strengthen the cyber risk regulation and supervision, and testing for the National Bank of Georgia (NBG). The mission focused on (i) an assessment of NBG’s cyber risk regulation, (ii) an assessment of cyber risk supervisory arrangements of NBG, (iii) assisting in the development of a cyber testing framework, and (iv) assisting in the development of a methodology for cyber exercising and stress testing. The mission found that cyber risk regulations including incident reporting requirements are in place, but gaps remain. Cyber risk supervision practices need improvements and more focus on supervisory priorities. Information sharing practices within the financial sector require strengthening. Cyber testing and exercises are an area where significant improvements are needed. Overall, the mission found that the NBG would benefit with an overarching cyber strategy for its financial sector.
Vivek B Arora
,
Miguel de Las Casas
,
Yasemin Bal Gündüz
,
Jérémie Cohen-Setton
,
Kelsie J Gentle
,
Jiakun Li
,
Carmen Rollins
, and
Sandra Saveikyte

Abstract

The evaluation assesses the EAP’s rationale, evolution, and implementation during the period since its adoption in 2002. It assesses whether the EAP has fulfilled the objectives that guided its creation, namely, shaping members’ and market expectations, providing clearer benchmarks for Board decisions on program design and exceptional access, safeguarding the Fund’s resources, and helping to ensure uniformity of treatment of members. The evaluation draws on background papers comprising both thematic and country studies that draw on experience with the 38 exceptional access programs completed through mid-2023. The thematic papers analyze the rationale and evolution of the EAP as well as the three building blocks of the policy: the exceptional access criteria, enhanced Board decision-making procedures, and ex post evaluations. The country papers comprise both cross-country studies and country-specific studies of the completed programs with Argentina (2018), Ecuador (2020), and Egypt (2020).

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report provides an overview of the assistance provided by the IMF to the Central Bank of Samoa on enhancing its risk management in line with international best practices for central banks.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report provides an overview of the assistance provided by the IMF to the Central Bank of Solomon Islands on enhancing its risk management in line with international best practices for central banks.
Thordur Jonasson
,
Sheheryar Malik
,
Kay Chung
, and
Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical element of public debt risk management. To this end, public debt managers often need to face with complex strategic and operational matters related to public debt hedging practices, including the use of derivatives. In this context, we highlight the main institutional challenges in the management of foreign exchange risk in sovereign debt portfolios and discuss the overall implementation of a foreign exchange risk-management strategy.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), Modification of Targets, and First Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The PCI underpins Paraguay's economic strategy and structural objectives of maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting social welfare and inclusion. The PCI is yielding positive results, though two targets were missed due to the identification of additional unrecorded healthcare-related expenditure. Three reform targets have been met. The new government is committed to continuing reforms guided by the PCI and RSF arrangements. It is crucial for Paraguay to rebuild fiscal buffers, ensure the sustainability of the public servants’ pension fund and enhance supervision of public enterprises to limit contingent risks. Taking decisive action against corruption to minimize reputational risks, reducing informality, and increasing international market integration will make Paraguay a significantly more attractive investment destination, including for green projects. Adaptation and mitigation measures should reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change and preserve its substantial natural assets and clean energy matrix.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explains Estonia’s recent losses of export market shares. Estonia’s export market share has fallen sharply, signalling that exporters have difficulties to keep up with foreign competition. While the immediate cause of this decline can be traced back to an adverse combination of external shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine, signs of faltering export performance surfaced already in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and thus predate recent shocks. Using a constant share decomposition, this paper shows that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, a significant portion of the decline in Estonia’s export share can be attributed to the ‘intensive margin’, i.e., a shrinking share of Estonia’s exports in the main destination markets—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. A few high-level policy implications can be drawn. Addressing the erosion of external competitiveness will require structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity, removing impediment to a structural transformation of the economy toward more technologically intensive and higher value-added products and services, as well as efforts to ensure that real wage growth remains closely aligned with productivity growth. By addressing these underlying challenges, Estonia can restore external competitiveness and ensure continued convergence toward the income levels of EU most advanced economies and Nordic neighbors.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights Ecuador’s Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The authorities implemented swift and bold measures in early 2024 to address the fiscal and liquidity challenges and requested a 48-month EFF arrangement of SDR 3 billion to support their policy plans and advance an ambitious structural reform agenda. IMF estimates that IMF resources are needed to close a financing gap of about US$4 billion during the program period, after factoring in an ambitious and large fiscal plan, financial support from international financial institutions and official bilateral partners, and renewed access to international capital markets. The baseline scenario under the program is, however, subject to substantive risks, stemming from both external and domestic factors. IMF assesses that the policy program provides a reasonably strong prospect of success, amid broad support to the main objectives of the EFF arrangement, and strong commitment and capacity by the authorities to take measures to ensure its successful implementation.