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Marie S Kim
,
Lilia Razlog
,
Juan Carlos Vilanova
, and
Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9–20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the authorities on the use of the Medium-term Debt Management Strategy Analytical tool (MTDS AT) and ABP AT. The mission presented its main findings and recommendations to the authorities and left a draft report at the end of the mission.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This report discusses the findings and recommendations of the 2024 assessment of the data quality of the public sector debt statistics (PSDS) of the Republic of Zambia against the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for PSDS. The assessment was undertaken as part of a project to strengthen the quality of public sector debt in select African countries, funded by the Government of Japan. The December 2023 DSA, assessed Zambia’s debt risk as in debt distress. This followed Zambia’s default on its sovereign Eurobonds in 2020 and the accumulation of arrears to both official bilateral and other commercial external creditors. As a result, the authorities have made significant efforts to strengthen public debt management including establishing Public Debt Management Act, 2022, and the operationalization of the Debt Management Office. Zambia’s PSDS have improved significantly in the last two years, consistent with the strong and sustained commitment of the government to improve debt data transparency and accountability. The report notes strengths in the legal framework and institutional arrangements underpinning the compiled and reported PSDS and finds the disseminated statistics to be broadly reliable, transparent, and of good quality. Recommendations include expanding the sector coverage beyond the budgetary central government, transparently publishing reconciliations of stocks and flows and a more detailed breakdown of arrears and making the PSDS more widely available in machine readable formats, including through the National Summary Data Page (NSDP) and joint IMF-World Bank Quarterly Public Sector Debt statistics database (QPSD).
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This report discusses the findings and recommendations of the 2024 assessment of the data quality of the public sector debt statistics (PSDS) of the United Republic of Tanzania against the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for PSDS. The assessment was undertaken as part of a project to strengthen the quality of public sector debt in select African countries, funded by the Government of Japan. In recent years, Tanzania has made significant progress in strengthening the compilation and dissemination of public sector debt statistics. The Debt Database Management Section of the Debt Management Division (DMD) in the Ministry of Finance (MOF) has been modernized by implementing the Commonwealth Secretariat web-based debt management system (CS Meridian) in the financial year (FY) 2022/23. The report notes strengths in the legal framework and institutional arrangements underpinning the compiled and reported PSDS and finds the disseminated statistics to be broadly reliable, transparent, and of good quality. Recommendations include expanding the sector coverage beyond the budgetary central government, improving the available metadata, adopting a transparent revision policy, and making the PSDS more widely available, including through the National Summary Data Page (NSDP) and joint IMF-World Bank Quarterly Public Sector Debt Statistics database (QPSD).
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economy recovered in 2024 as oil sector rebounded from its slump. However, fiscal consolidation efforts somewhat waned, auguring the start of a political cycle. Buffers built during the 2018–21 EFF—supported program are being eroded by fiscal slippages from higher capital expenditures and a slower fuel subsidy reform. Nevertheless, public debt relative to GDP declined in 2024, benefiting from high nominal GDP growth and debt repayments. High external debt service constrains development spending, while oil dependence represents a drag on sustainable growth. Inflation remains elevated, fueled by exchange rate depreciation, and import substitution measures that have restricted food supply. The National Development Plan 2023–27 remains the main element for the authorities’ diversification strategy.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Solomon Islands has weathered the shocks of civil unrest, pandemic, and commodity price hikes, and achieved the milestones of hosting the Pacific Games in late 2023 and conducting peaceful general elections in April 2024. These achievements have raised the country's profile and strengthened national unity, but with costs—public debt has nearly tripled since before the pandemic, and the government's cash reserves have been significantly depleted. While staff expects continued modest growth in 2024 and 2025, medium-term growth prospects appear moderate and fiscal and current account deficits are expected to persist. Now is the time for the authorities to advance reforms to tackle the perennial challenge of stagnant per-capita income growth, while ensuring fiscal sustainability and resilience.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s cyclical recovery is underway, though it has yet to become broad-based. Growth is projected to accelerate moderately, reaching 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, supported by the rebound of tourism-related activities and fiscal stimulus. The slow recovery, weaker than in ASEAN peers, is rooted in Thailand’s longstanding structural weaknesses and emerging headwinds that also contribute to a muted inflation trajectory. Significant uncertainty in the external environment and downside risks cloud the outlook.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Many emerging markets and developing economies face elevated debt vulnerabilities and financing needs. Following the 2020-21 surge in debt levels associated with the COVID-19 shock, and the subsequent tightening in global financial conditions, many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs)1 are grappling with rising debt service burdens that squeeze the space available for development spending. Pandemic-induced deficits have declined, and debt levels have stabilized and are projected to remain stable or slightly decline under staff’s baseline assumptions. However, many EMDEs are confronting high costs of financing, large external refinancing needs, and a decline in net external flows amid important investment and social spending needs. To help address these challenges, countries would benefit from actions, both at domestic and international level, to proactively expand their capacity to finance development spending. There are also important risks to the baseline that will require careful monitoring. This paper aims to help inform the international debate on these issues by providing factual data and insight on the debt vulnerabilities and financing pressures facing EMDEs.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Liberia continues to face substantial long-term development challenges. Resource constraints and substantial gaps in infrastructure and human capital have hindered Liberia’s growth prospects and the authorities’ efforts to improve living standards. Addressing these challenges will require sustained efforts to mobilize additional revenues, enhance financial stability, improve public financial management, and seek external grants and highly concessional loans for key capital investment projects. Improvements in these areas would help create fiscal space to scale up investment in infrastructure and human capital, thus unleashing the country’s growth potential.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Cabo Verde’s Fifth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Quantitative Performance Criterion (QPC), Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangement. The ECF-supported program aims to strengthen public finances and put debt on a downward path, reduce fiscal risks from public enterprises, modernize the monetary policy framework, and raise growth potential. Cabo Verde continues to grow strongly, reflecting a rebound in tourism, robust export performance, as well as private consumption growth. Cabo Verde’s near-term economic outlook remains favorable. Growth is projected to gradually converge to its potential rate of about 4.8 percent by 2029. The RSF supports government efforts to implement macro-critical climate reforms and catalyze private climate finance. All ECF performance criteria were met except the gross international reserves (GIR) QPC, although the Bank of Cabo Verde has taken corrective actions to address the missed target. All indicative targets, except for GIR, and structural benchmarks through September 2024 were met. One RSF reform measure was completed, with three delayed to the next review.