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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues the state of educational attainment in Somalia and explores the potential growth dividends from increasing access to education and closing gender gaps in education. Somalia experienced significant loss in human capital over two decades of civil strife. Education outcomes in Somalia are among of the lowest in the world, and even worse for women. It will be important that Somalia sets strong foundations for building its education system and expanding access to education, while mobilizing the resources to do so, with continued support from international partners. The paper recommends that Somali authorities gradually increase education spending, by mobilizing both domestic and external resources. Model estimates show that increasing education access to the level of Low Human Development countries and closing gender gaps could raise real gross domestic product by close to 40 percent over the next 25 years. Given extremely limited resources and capacity, Somalia will need to carefully prioritize policies that can deliver near-term wins as it gradually develops its public education system. Improving access and quality of education will require greater resources, supported by additional domestic revenues and sustained support from development partners.
Keywords:
satellite imagery data; EAC accession; sensor data; Somalia's integration; partner States; D. policy priority; satellite data; Pensions; Civil service; Gender inequality; Customs unions; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Benin: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts on Benin’s ongoing economic transformation, and analyzes the country’s new eco-system. A recent IMF paper explores conditions under which the country’s industrial policy could meet its intended goals while avoiding unintended economic distortions down the road. While economic diversification is found to be associated with higher economic growth, evidence on the causal impact of industrial policies is hard to establish. While empirical evidence suggests that Benin’s reliance on traditional sectors, notably the Port of Cotonou, is moderating, economic diversification remains limited. The government embarked on industrial policy with the transformation of local commodities as main engine, including via the launching of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in 2020. It is recommending that the authorities should pursue efforts to ensure transparency in the selection of SEZ-related incentives. Intra-regional trade integration holds significant potential for Benin and could support economic diversification. Ongoing post-electoral policy shifts in Nigeria and formalization underway of economic ties between both nations, if permanent, would curb rent-seeking in Benin.
Keywords:
demographics dividend; B. addressing Internet accessibility; infrastructure investment; Beninese government; completion rate; Digitalization; Exports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores effects of social unrest in Guatemala. The paper estimates the effects of social unrest on Guatemala’s economy from 2001 to 2023, using the monthly Reported Social Unrest Index as a measure of social unrest. The estimations of the empirical model suggest no effects of social unrest episodes on the main external sector variables. The empirical evidence suggests little to no impact of social unrest in Guatemala. Contrary to Hadzi-Vaskov et al. (2023), the analysis of the effects of social unrest in Guatemala suggests that the effects on the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors are mild, limited, and temporary if not negligible. On the one hand, the lack of cross-country dimensionality is a limitation of our analysis, but on the other hand, exploiting monthly data allows us to disentangle unrest episode effects at higher frequencies than other papers in the literature. Overall, the results are robust to different specifications; the set of controls is extensive and includes controls for future social unrest shocks autocorrelations. The results suggest that Guatemala is resilient to unrest shocks at business-cycle frequencies, even of considerable magnitude.
Keywords:
social spending efficiency; remittance inflow; investment agenda; government expenditure gap; Guatemala's economy; Labor force participation; Gender inequality; Remittances; Women; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Upskilling the UK Workforce: United Kingdom
Pragyan Deb
and
Gloria Li
The UK workforce has larger and more chronic skills gaps than in most peer countries, with surveys reporting widespread recruitment difficulties, with implications for output, in high-skill sectors like digital and software, manufacturing, medicine and life sciences, teaching, and construction. This partly reflects declines in primary and post-secondary education outcomes (particularly science scores, over the past two decades) and in workplace training and apprenticeships, particularly for the young. Moreover, the recent increase in non-EU migrants has not fully offset the adverse impact from Brexit on the availability of needed skills, including because smaller firms face more recruitment hurdles with regard to non-EU hires. Against this backdrop, there is an urgent need to upskill the UK workforce, both by building on ongoing efforts, as well as additional concrete measures to: (i) encourage students and young workers to join and excel in STEM; (ii) ensure adequate vocational and on the job training, particularly for the young; (iii) retain the talent produced by UKs world leading universities; (iv) upskill the existing labor force; and (v) facilitate attraction and retention of in-demand skills through adjustments to the visa regime.
Keywords:
Potential Growth; Supply of Labour; Skills; UK workforce; recruitment difficulty; demand skill; post-secondary education outcome; skills gap; Labor force; Education spending
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyses monetary policy issues in the UK. It examines key macro and financial indicators and assesses the effects of the tightening thus far. The paper finds that monetary transmission has largely mirrored previous episodes, with the most notable exception of the mortgage channel, which has been slower due to a higher share of fixed-rate mortgages. Additionally, it reveals an outsized impact of federal announcements on UK financial markets and argues that this will place a premium on Bank of England (BoE) communications in a context where the BoE may diverge. Monetary transmission in the UK during the current cycle has mostly worked as expected and has been similar to the experiences in other advanced economies. The paper identifies identify monetary policy surprises through changes in high-frequency market indicators within a narrow window around monetary policy announcement. The results indicate that Federal Open Market Committee spillovers do have a sizable effect on monetary transmission in the UK.
Keywords:
UK construction; UK workforce; spending scenario; Fed Policy spillover; MPC decision; visa regime; Housing; Education spending; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exploring the Role of Public Expenditure in Advancing Female Economic Empowerment and Gender Equality
Charla Britt
and
Danielle Egerer
This paper discusses connections between female economic empowerment and government spending. It is an abbreviated overview for non-gender-experts on how fiscal expenditure may support female economic empowerment as an interim step toward advancing gender equality. From this perspective, it offers a preliminary exploration of key factors and indicators associated with gender-differentiated impacts in each of five main categories of public spending (education, health, capital expenditure, government employment and compensation, and social protection and labor market programs). It examines and proposes indices within each category that can be used to identify and measure related gender gaps and suggests associations and connections between those indices, public spending, and other available proxy measurements with some benchmarking potential which is summarized at the end of each category in a Gender Lens Matrix for ease of reference. The paper draws on an extensive literature review and examination of publicly available datasets. It also highlights and discusses gaps in data which limit gender analysis. The purpose of the paper is to advance dialogue on the adoption of a gendered approach to government spending, by providing a gender lens that may assist country level assessments and discussions among IMF staff and member country authorites.
Keywords:
Women’s economic empowerment; gender equality; gender analysis; gender gaps; fiscal expenditure; government spending; youth literacy Gender Parity Index; labor market program; IMF working paper No. 24/108; IMF's expenditure assessment tool; maternity leave; Women; Gender inequality; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Caribbean; South Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Operational Guidance Note for IMF Engagement on Social Spending Issues
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This note provides general guidance on the operationalization of the strategy for IMF engagement on social spending. Social spending plays a critical role as a key lever for promoting inclusive growth, addressing inequality, protecting vulnerable groups during structural change and adjustment, smoothing consumption over the lifecycle, and stabilizing demand during economic shocks. Social spending policies have also been playing an important role in tackling the structural challenges associated with demographic shifts, gender inequality, technological advances, and climate change. This note builds on a series of notes on IMF engagement on specific social spending issues since the publication of the 2019 strategy paper and provides operational guidance on when and how to engage on social spending issues, in the context of surveillance, IMF-supported programs, and capacity development.
Keywords:
social spending; spending adequacy; spending efficiency; fiscal sustainability; social spending conditionality; social spending floor; social safety nets; education; health; pensions.; spending issue; transparency policy; I. social spending data; IMF capacity development; Health care spending; Education spending; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper aims to identify key reforms to accelerate Qatar’s economic transformation, estimate their impact, and shed light on the design of a comprehensive reform agenda. This paper starts by taking stock of Qatar’s progress in key reforms so far, identifying areas for further improvement, proposing structural reform measures, estimating the impact of key proposed reforms, and providing principles on the prioritization and sequencing of reforms. Qatar’s state-led, hydrocarbon intensive growth model has delivered rapid growth and substantial improvements in living standards over the past several decades. Guided by the National Vision 2030, an economic transformation is underway toward a more dynamic, diversified, knowledge-based, sustainable, and private sector-led growth model. The paper finds that labor market reforms could bring substantial benefits, particularly reforms related to increasing the share of skilled foreign workers. Certain reforms to further improve the business environment, such as improving access to finance, could also have large growth impact. A comprehensive, well-integrated, and properly sequenced reform package to exploit complementarities across reforms could boost Qatar’s potential growth significantly.
Keywords:
FIFA World cup; International Monetary Fund Washington, d.c; World Cup contribution; labor market dynamics; key reform; Labor market reforms; Labor force participation; Women; Climate finance; Global
Cover Morocco’s Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth
Morocco’s Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth

Abstract

Throughout the past two decades, Morocco has faced several external and domestic shocks, including large swings in international oil prices, regional geopolitical tensions, severe droughts, and most recently the impact of the pandemic and the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite rough waters, the government stayed the course and remained focused not only on immediate stability, but also on the long-term needs of the Moroccan economy. This involved the adoption of a series of difficult measures, like the elimination of energy subsidies, and a strategy aimed at improving the country’s infrastructure, diversifying the production and export bases by attracting foreign investment, and modernizing the governance structure of the public administration. The road to higher and more inclusive growth, however, remains steep. Despite gains in poverty reduction, literacy and lifespans, Morocco economy continues to face a high share of inactive youth, large gaps in economic opportunities for women, a fragmented social protection system, and remaining barriers to private sector development. An ambitious reform agenda is needed to better meet the aspirations of Moroccans, by making economic growth stronger, more resilient and more inclusive, particularly to provide greater opportunities for young, women, and entrepreneurs. Morocco appears well positioned to address these challenges, and indeed, the country has recently sought to define and pursue a new “model of development”, through national debates and a more inclusive approach to reform. Significant reforms have been announced recently that revamp both the social protection system and the SOEs business model. This book draws lessons from the reforms Morocco has implemented in the past few decades and charts a course for Morocco by addressing key areas for reform.

Keywords:
Morocco; economic development; structural reforms; fiscal rule; NEET rate; development model; core inflation; NEET condition; World Bank enterprise Survey; Fiscal rules; Manufacturing; Women; Gender inequality; Global; North Africa; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Social Spending and Outcomes in Madagascar: Republic of Madagascar
Samah Mazraani
The paper examines Madagascar's education, health, and social assistance spending and outcomes. Government spending on education is relatively low compared to peers, and the quality of education has deteriorated. The paper recommends allocating more resources to the sector, ensuring transparent and merit-based teacher recruitment mechanisms, and strengthening teacher training and incentives. Health spending is also low, and the health system faces challenges in malnutrition, immunization, and service delivery. Additional domestic resources and large-scale structural reforms are needed. Social safety net programs have limited coverage and low spending, and expanding them should be a top priority to reduce poverty and support vulnerable populations.
Keywords:
Social spending; Education; Health; Social Protection; Poverty; Madagascar; health system faces challenge; government health spending; commitment process; government education spending; recruitment mechanism; teacher training; Social assistance spending; Education spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa