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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Solomon Islands: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
government debt data; Solomon Islands' challenge; effectiveness of Solomon islands; D. enhancing effectiveness; debt anchor; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal governance; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
After reaching 5.1 percent in 2023, growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent in 2024, while inflation would decline to 8.2 percent. The banking sector remains resilient amid continued rapid consumer credit growth. A moderate current account deficit is expected this year. The outlook is subject to elevated risks, including from an uncertain external environment. Decisive reforms are necessary to diversify the economy, make growth higher and more inclusive, and address challenges from climate change.
Keywords:
IMF TA; IMF's holding; money-market development; inflation pressure; central bank communications; Policy effectiveness; NBK policy rate; oil revenue; IMF's transparency policy; Fiscal stance; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cambodia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cambodia
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Cambodia’s economy is at a crossroads. While the economic recovery continues, its pace remains uneven. The sharp slowdown in credit growth has exposed the economy to increased financial sector vulnerabilities. Policy formulation must ensure a durable and inclusive recovery in the near term and achieving development goals over the medium term. The path forward will require a refocus on more resilient and diversified growth drivers, with the graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status expected by 2030.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank FSAP mission; introduced Medium Term Fiscal Framework; authorities' plan; broad money; credit supply; IMF's article; Financial sector stability; Government finance statistics; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Bahamas: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Bahamas
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Activity has recovered to its pre-pandemic level and inflation is now modestly negative. Public finances are improving and borrowing costs have declined. Nonetheless, public debt remains high and its short duration represents an important vulnerability.
Keywords:
CARTAC CARTAC; Bahamian authorities; revenue-enhancing strategy; CARTAC FAD; energy reform plan; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); External sector statistics; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Debt Crisis with Strategic Investors: Changes in Demand and the Role of Market Power
Ricardo Alves Monteiro
This paper documents changes in investors' demand for sovereign debt during a debt crisis. Using a dataset containing individual bids on Portuguese debt auctions, I document that bid functions become more inelastic during the crisis. That is, investors require bigger drops in price to buy additional units of debt, increasing the government’s marginal cost of issuing debt. I then decompose these changes in demand into two components: a fundamental component, due to changes in the valuation of the security, and a strategic component, that arises from investors' market power. I find that, although the role of market power is negligible in normal times, it gets more pronounced leading up to and during the crisis. The government is not able to extract the full surplus from strategic investors, and, as a result, the auction mechanism loses efficiency during that period. Finally, I discuss a possible mitigation strategy. Everything else constant, the use of shorter maturities could avoid higher inefficiency costs.
Keywords:
Debt auctions; default risk; demand elasticity; market power; debt auction; auction mechanism; investors' market power; mitigation strategy; bid function; Treasury bills and bonds; Debt default; Europe
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Dominica: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (July 15–26, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Dominica as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data gaps and improving statistical techniques for travel exports and direct investment to enhance the accuracy of the balance of payments (BOP) and the international investment position (IIP) and reduce net errors and omissions. In addition, the revised 2023 BOP that will be disseminated in December 2023 was reviewed.
Keywords:
Dominica; balance of payments statistics.; BOP survey; Dominica authority; BOP estimate; CBI program transaction; IMF's Statistics Department; External sector statistics; International investment position; Pension spending; Foreign direct investment; Caribbean
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Zambia: Data Quality Assessment for Public Sector Debt Statistics (September 30–October 4, 2024)
Andrew Kitili
,
David S Bailey
, and
Robert O Osudi
In October 2024, an assessment was undertaken of the data quality of the public sector debt statistics (PSDS) of the Republic of Zambia against the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for PSDS. The assessment was undertaken as part of a project to strengthen the quality of public sector debt in select African countries, funded by the Government of Japan. The mission reviewed the PSDS compilation and dissemination practices against each element of the DQAF and presented a series of recommendations to improve the quality and transparency of the PSDS of the Republic of Zambia.
Keywords:
Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF); Debt Reporting; Debt Transparency; JSA; Public Debt; Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS); Zambia; PSDS compilation; PSDS of the Republic of Zambia; high-level summary; debt data transparency; disseminated data; Government finance statistics; Government debt management
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
United Republic of Tanzania: Data Quality Assessment for Public Sector Debt Statistics Mission (September 23–27, 2024)
Andrew Kitili
,
David S Bailey
, and
Robert O Osudi
In September 2024, an assessment was undertaken of the data quality of the public sector debt statistics (PSDS) of the United Republic of Tanzania against the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for PSDS. The mission was undertaken as part of a project to strengthen the quality of public sector debt in select African countries, funded by the Government of Japan. The mission reviewed the PSDS compilation and dissemination practices against each element of the DQAF and presented a series of recommendations to improve the quality and transparency of the PSDS of the United Republic of Tanzania.
Keywords:
Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF); Debt Reporting; Debt Transparency; JSA; Public Debt; Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS); Tanzania; PSDS compilation; PSDS of the United Republic of Tanzania; debt data; high-level summary; data update; Government finance statistics; Government debt management
Cover IMF Working Papers
Output Gap Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy Adjustment in Real-Time in Emerging Economies
Giacomo Cattelan
and
Boaz Nandwa
Uncertainty around the real-time output gap has important implications for fiscal policy. This study uses successive vintages of the World Economic Outlook for emerging markets (EMs) during 1998-2022 to examine the reaction of discretionary fiscal policy to uncertain economic cycle in real-time. The findings show that EMs tend to have persistently negative and significantly more volatile real-time output gap estimates compared to advanced economies (AEs) and are less responsive to the output gap shocks. We calibrate a New Keynesian DSGE model to match the behavior of an average EM. The results from the model suggest that when EM policy makers are equally concerned about uncertainty around the output gap estimates and about fiscal implementation, fiscal policy is less counter-cyclical than the benchmark case with no uncertainty, entailing an efficiency loss for the purpose of output gap stabilization. On the other hand, when the concern is only about output gap uncertainty, EM policy makers tend to react more counter-cyclically but at a cost of public debt spiking in the short term and stabilizing over the long term. This implies that it might be optimal for EM policy makers to act more aggressively to stabilize the economy. We show that by adjusting the relative importance of output gap vs debt stabilization in their objective function, EM policy makers can achieve a similar outcome as in the benchmark case with no uncertainty.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; real-time output gap estimates; public debt; output gap uncertainty; output gap shock; output gap estimate; real-time output gap; fiscal policy adjustment; Output gap; Fiscal stance; Neoclassical theory
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Burkina Faso: Report on Government Finance Statistics Mission (March 18–29, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) mission report is on government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics (PSDS). The mission worked on improving the GFS of the consolidation of the general government sector, the extension of GFS coverage to include state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and on improving debt statistics. This mission is part of the implementation workplan of the Regional Technical Assistance Center of the International Monetary Fund for West Africa (AFRITAC West) and was partly funded by the Data for Decisions (D4D) Fund aimed at enhancing data quality to better inform economic policies in low- and middle-income countries.
Keywords:
General government; government finance statistics; public debt; public sector debt statistics; SOEs; government finance statistics mission; mission report; capacity development recipient; data quality; TOFE team; Financial statements; Business enterprises