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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
حققت سلطنة عُمان تحسنا ملحوظا في أساسيات اقتصادها. فقد تحسن مركز المالية العامة والمركز الخارجي تحسنا كبيرا، في حين يشهد النمو غير الهيدروكربوني انتعاشا في ظل انخفاض التضخم. كما زادت ثقة المستثمرين، مما يمهد الطريق لزيادة استثمارات القطاع الخاص. ويمكن لجهود لإصلاح المستمرة تعظيم المكاسب المتحققة من هذه الإنجازات، والمساعدة على تحقيق التحول الاقتصادي المستهدف على النحو الوارد في رؤية عُمان 2040.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
لا تزال ليبيا دولة هشة عالقة في حالة من عدم اليقين السياسي. حلقات أصبح الصراع النشط أقل تواترا ، لكن البلاد لا تزال منقسمة بحكم الأمر الواقع بين الغرب والشرق ومجزأة بين الميليشيات المختلفة مع أهداف متنافسة. معوقات الاقتصاد السياسي وعدم كفاية القدرات إعاقة قدرة السلطات على تنفيذ المشورة التي يقدمها الصندوق بشأن السياسات.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
التضخم للمستمر. أما معدا لإصلاحا ة وزخميتاومه أسعار النفط المععافيا تدت يشهد النشاط الاقتصاد اق:يسلا ىلع ضئاوف قيقحت إلى يرلجاا سابحلاة وملعاا ةيالملا ةصدرأ تلوحت ،زلعجا نم تاونس عدبف .نخفضام لظف عم ايربنخفاضا كا العام عالقطا نيد ضنخفاة. ومة العايللمال ةيلاحترازا ةرادلإاأسعار الطاقة و عفاترا ةيفلخ نامُع ةيؤر" ذينفت يف اريبا كمدقت تاطللسا ترزحوأ .نوديلر لكبملا دالسدا يف ةيتثنائسلاا تاروفولا ماتخدسا تانوبوكررديهلا ىلع نامُع نةطلس تمادعا نم ه للحدب غي القيامبما ينم ثيركناك اله لالا يز نكول ،"2040 .ينوبدروكريهر اليغ وملنا آفاق زيعزتو
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management. Better understanding of fiscal risks, combined with their transparent reporting and effective risk management underpin fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. The annual budget can disclose guarantees, related beneficiaries, the expected duration, and the intended purpose. It is essential to identify and disclose the main fiscal risks from climate-related events and Oman’s climate agenda, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. Effective fiscal policymaking and fiscal risk management require appropriate coordination of decision making between central government and other parts of the public sector.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

يناقش التقرير التقلبات التي شهدتها المالية العامة نتيجة الصدمات العديدة منذ ظهور الجائحة، والتي اتسمت بمعدلات نمو غير معتادة وتغيرات ديناميكية في مستويات التضخم وتقديم دعم مالي للتخفيف من تلك الصدمات. وقد أدت التوترات المالية الأخيرة إلى تدهور الآفاق التي تكتنفها بالفعل حالة من عدم اليقين والتعقيد، في ظل تشديد الأوضاع التمويلية وتزايد المخاوف بشأن مواطن الضعف المتعلقة بالدين. وفي هذه البيئة الحافلة بالتقلبات، ينبغي إيلاء الأولوية لتحقيق الاتساق بين سياسة المالية العامة والسياسة النقدية لاستعادة الاستقرار السعري والمالي، مع دعم الفئات الأكثر ضعفا. وفي ظل التغيرات الحادة في الأوضاع المالية، هناك حاجة أيضا إلى الانضباط المالي للتصدي لمواطن الضعف في المالية العامة. ولهذا الغرض، سيتعين على الحكومات إيلاء أولوية أكبر لإعادة بناء موارد مالية وقائية من خلال وضع أطر مالية قائمة على المخاطر وذات مصداقية للتشجيع على اتساق السياسات الاقتصادية الكلية، والحد من مواطن الضعف المتعلقة بالدين مع مرور الوقت، وبناء الحيز اللازم لمواجهة الصدمات المستقبلية.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic, the volatility in oil prices, heightened insecurity, and a looming food crisis due to climate change have severely stressed an already vulnerable Chadian economy. The two Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursements in April and July 2020 allowed Chad to meet its immediate financing and urgent balance of payment needs in the early stages of the pandemic. The authorities have requested Fund assistance under the ECF to support their post-COVID recovery and their plan to reduce debt vulnerabilities through a combination of a debt workout and a multi-year fiscal consolidation program. However, due to the death of the president following a resurgence of fighting with rebel groups in April and the delayed delivery of donor support, the treasury situation has become extremely tight, threatening social stability.
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Chad’s economy has been severely impacted by the twin Covid-19 pandemic and terms of trade shocks. A national lockdown to contain the spread of the virus, disruptions in supply chains, and a drop in international oil prices are curtailing economic activity and weakening the outlook. While the authorities’ policy response has been timely and proactive, the economic shock and containment policies are triggering a severe recession, resulting in significant social costs and urgent balance of payment and budget financing needs. These are estimated at 7.0 percent of non-oil GDP compared to 4.6 percent in IMF Country Report No. 20/134. The pandemic is unfolding in a context of rising regional and domestic insecurity and an already weak health care system, which are exacerbating Chad’s vulnerabilities.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Chad’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility, Extension of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Rephasing of Access. In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak, the authorities have taken strong measures to halt the community spread of the virus. They are also scaling up health-related spending and are considering a set of economic measures to support households and businesses. Given the sudden nature of the shocks and their widespread impact, the authorities will be temporarily relaxing the fiscal deficit to allow for the scaling up of health care spending and to accommodate the impact of the sharp drop in oil prices. In order to safeguard debt sustainability, they remain committed to the medium-term fiscal path and will implement the needed adjustment measures as soon as the current crisis abates.