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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Measurement and Use of Cash by Half the World’s Population
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
The use of cash for payments is not well measured. We view the value of cash withdrawn from ATMs, or as a share of all payments, as a more accurate and timely measure of cash use compared to the standard measure of currency in circulation, or as a ratio to GDP. These two measures are compared for 14 advanced and emerging market economies. When aggregated, the trend in cash use for payments is currently falling for half the world’s population. Such a measure can help inform policy decisions regarding CBDC and regulatory decisions concerning access to and use of cash.
Keywords:
Cash; payments; access to cash; central bank digital currency; cash use; ATM cash; aggregate Currency value; value of cash; use of cash; Currencies; Monetary base; Purchasing power parity; Stocks; Payment systems
Cover Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide (Third Edition)
Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide (Third Edition)
Venkat Josyula

Abstract

This third edition of the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide has been prepared to assist economies that participate or are preparing to participate in the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS). It builds on and updates the second edition of the CPIS Guide (2002) to reflect the adoption of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition (BPM6) as the standard framework for compiling cross-border position statistics.

Keywords:
M&G; portfolio investment data collection system; investment; CPIS data template; survey questionnaire; investment survey; CPIS metadata questionnaire; Securities; Portfolio investment; Stocks; Foreign direct investment; Bonds; Global; Caribbean; CPIS data; securities holding; portfolio investment liability; liability position; CPIS Task Force; portfolio investment securities; Business enterprises
Cover The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide 2015
The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide 2015
Miss Rita Mesias

Abstract

This Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide (Guide) has been prepared to assist economies in participating in the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). The CDIS is being conducted under the auspices of the Statistics Department of the IMF across a wide range of economies. The survey is conducted simultaneously by all participating economies; uses consistent definitions; and encourages best practices in collecting, compiling, and disseminating data on direct investment positions. The CDIS is thus an important tool in capturing world totals and the geographic distribution of direct investment positions, thereby contributing to important new understandings of the extent of globalization, and improving the overall quality of direct investment data worldwide. As of the writing of this updated Guide, more than 100 economies participate in the CDIS.

Keywords:
M&G; background color; country currency; reported data; Dem. rep.; enterprise B; McDonald island; Foreign direct investment; Securities; Stocks; Nonbank financial institutions; International investment position; Global; South America; Central America; East Asia; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Pacific Islands; position data; CDIS data; equity investment assets; investment fund share; Business enterprises
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trends in Fiscal Transparency: Evidence from a New Database of the Coverage of Fiscal Reporting
Rachel F Wang
,
Mr. Timothy C Irwin
, and
Lewis K Murara
Although there are several measures of fiscal transparency, none provides satisfactory information on certain issues of macroeconomic relevance, including whether fiscal data are available for all of general government, whether the government reports a balance sheet, and whether spending and revenue are reported on a cash or accrual basis. Drawing on government finance statistics reported to the IMF, this paper presents a new database of fiscal transparency for 186 countries in 2003–13 and derives from it indices of the overall comprehensiveness of fiscal statistics as well as specific indices of the coverage of public institutions, fiscal flows, and fiscal stocks, respectively. It finds evidence of gradual improvement, most notably in the coverage of institutions, but most countries’ reporting remains far from comprehensive
Keywords:
WP; government; government operation; country; central government; government Finance Statistics Manual; public finance; budgets; accounts; fiscal transparency; fiscal reporting; government finance statistics; General government; local government; government assets; government statistics; government's account; budgetary central government; correlation coefficient; balance-sheet subtotal; Financial statements; Stocks; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Funding Structures and Risk: Evidence From the Global Financial Crisis
Mr. Pablo Federico
and
Mr. Francisco F. Vazquez
This paper analyzes the evolution of bank funding structures in the run up to the global financial crisis and studies the implications for financial stability, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers about 11,000 banks in the U.S. and Europe during 2001?09. The results show that banks with weaker structural liquidity and higher leverage in the pre-crisis period were more likely to fail afterward. The likelihood of bank failure also increases with bank risk-taking. In the cross-section, the smaller domestically-oriented banks were relatively more vulnerable to liquidity risk, while the large cross-border banks were more susceptible to solvency risk due to excessive leverage. The results support the proposed Basel III regulations on structural liquidity and leverage, but suggest that emphasis should be placed on the latter, particularly for the systemically-important institutions. Macroeconomic and monetary conditions are also shown to be related with the likelihood of bank failure, providing a case for the introduction of a macro-prudential approach to banking regulation.
Keywords:
WP; bank; bank type; bank probability; capital ratio; global bank; risk profile; bank survival probability; bank dynamics; Liquidity requirements; Liquidity; Distressed institutions; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unforeseen Events Wait Lurking: Estimating Policy Spillovers From U.S. to Foreign Asset Prices
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
and
Mr. Trung T Bui
Event studies are used to analyze the impact of U.S. financial, fiscal, and monetary policies from US to foreign asset prices across a range of G20 countries and Switzerland. The initial announcement that the Administration supported tighter regulation of banks led to a generalized fall in advanced economy bank shares compared to local equity markets. For later Dodd-Frank announcements, however, falls in U.S. bank equity prices were accompanied by increases in U.K. and Swiss valuations, implying a potential for regulatory arbitrage. Turning to macro policies, the 2008/9 fiscal and monetary stimulus packages generally supported foreign activity, while the impact of similar stimulus in 2010 is less clear.
Keywords:
WP; yield; price; Event studies; policy announcements; interntational asset price transmission; equity price; fed funds rate; equity return; treasury yield; excess return; market condition; yields matter; equity price indicator; bank excess return; Treasury yield; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Bond yields; Stocks; Unconventional monetary policies; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Financial Crises Alike?
Chrismin Tang
,
Mr. Mardi Dungey
,
Mr. Vance Martin
,
Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
, and
Ms. Renee Fry
This paper investigates whether financial crises are alike by considering whether a single modeling framework can fit multiple distinct crises in which contagion effects link markets across national borders and asset classes. The crises considered are Russia and LTCM in the second half of 1998, Brazil in early 1999, dot-com in 2000, Argentina in 2001-2005, and the recent U.S. subprime mortgage and credit crisis in 2007. Using daily stock and bond returns on emerging and developed markets from 1998 to 2007, the empirical results show that financial crises are indeed alike, as all linkages are statistically important across all crises. However, the strength of these linkages does vary across crises. Contagion channels are widespread during the Russian/LTCM crisis, are less important during subsequent crises until the subprime crisis, where again the transmission of contagion becomes rampant.
Keywords:
WP; subprime crisis; Financial crises; Contagion; Factor models; contagion channel; LTCM crisis; crisis model; crisis period; dot-com crisis; pressure approach; Securities markets; Stock markets; Bonds; Stocks; Global; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Pricing of Emerging Market Corporate Debt: Does the Corporate Matter?
Ms. Sonja Keller
and
Mr. Ashoka Mody
We examine risk spreads charged on corporate bonds placed by emerging market borrowers on international exchanges. While global developments have an important effect on spreads, changes in firm-level default risk also matter significantly in a way consistent with theory and experience in mature markets. In contrast, except during periods of financial crisis, country factors play a limited role. These findings go against the supposition that limited information on emerging market firms or significant agency problems prevent firm-level credit discrimination by international investors. The firm-level information capitalization into spreads possibly reflects protection afforded by the exchange listing on international markets.
Keywords:
WP; equity return; market equity; GMM estimator; firm equity; country risk; GMM-system estimator; Corporate bonds; bond spreads; Fama-French factors; equity data; risk arbitrage; U.S. dollar; market volatility; Fixed-Effects estimator; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Stock markets; Stocks; Estimation techniques; Bonds; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 53, No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This first issue for 2006 is anchored by two papers on Russia. The opening paper discusses Russia and the World Trade Organization, and the concluding paper, by John Odling-Smee (former Director of the IMF's European II Department), presents a comprehensive and authoritative history of the IMF's relations with Russia during the 1990s. Other articles in this issue cover rent-seeking behavior, estimations of government net capital stocks, and three papers cover different aspects of exchange rates.
Keywords:
SP; rent seeking; net exporter; rent seeker; exchange rate shock; capital stock estimate; economic policy; Real exchange rates; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Stocks; Purchasing power parity; Western Hemisphere; Global; Baltics; Middle East; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
European Union Enlargement and Equity Markets in Accession Countries
Richard Podpiera
and
Tomás Dvorák
The announcement of the European Union enlargement coincided with a dramatic rise in stock prices in accession countries. This paper investigates the hypothesis that the rise in stock prices was a result of the repricing of systematic risk due to the integration of accession countries into the world market. We found that firm-level stock price changes are positively related to the difference between a firm's local and world market betas. This result is robust to controlling for changes in expected earnings, country effects, and other controls, although the magnitude of the effect is not very large. The differences between local and world betas explain nearly 22 percent of the stock price increase.
Keywords:
WP; market premium; market beta; price increase; systematic risk; market integration; asset pricing; international financial integration; EU enlargement; world market; EU accession countries firm; Asset prices; Inflation; Stock markets; Market capitalization; Stocks; Eastern Europe; Global