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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 39 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission
Alessia De Stefani
and
Rui Mano
We study the two-way relationship between fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and monetary policy in a panel of up to 35 countries over the last two decades. The dataset includes quarterly information on the composition of mortgage flows and stock by type of rate-fixation and monetary policy shocks cleaned of information effects. Using instrumental-variablel local projections, we find both path- and state-dependency in monetary transmission. Monetary policy shapes mortgage choice, increasing (decreasing) the share of FRMs during easing (tightening) cycles. Over time, this mechanism alters the composition of the outstanding mortgage stock which, in turn, affects the central bank's ability to stabilize the economy ex-post. A greater (lower) prevalence of FRMs weakens (strengthens) monetary policy transmission to key macro-variables.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Mortgage Markets; monetary policy shock; monetary policy transmission; mortgage choice; prevalence of FRMs; ARM rate; Mortgages; Central bank policy rate; Stocks; Housing prices; Private consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Satellite-Based Census of Residential Buildings: Application for Climate Risk Assessment
Andinet Woldemichael
and
Iyke Maduako
Housing represents the largest asset and liability, in the form of mortgages, on most national balance sheet. For most households it is their largest investment, and when mortgages are required also represents the largest component of household debt. It is also directly tied to financial markets, both the mortgage market and insurance sector. Although many countries have a rich set of housing censuses and statistics, others have large data gap in this area and therefore struggle to formulate effective policies. This paper proposes an approach to construct a global census of residential buildings using opensource satellite data. Such a layer can be used to assess the extent these buildings are exposed to climate hazards and how their production and consumption, in turn, affect the climate. The approach we propose could be scaled globally, combining existing layers of building footprints, climate and socioeconomic data. It adds to the ongoing effort of compiling spatially explicit and granular climate indicators to better inform policies. As a case study, we compute selected indicators and estimate the extent of residential properties exposure to riverine flood risk for Kenya.
Keywords:
Census of buildings; Climate Exposure; Building Footprint; flood risk; property indicator; aggregate dwellings Capital Stock value; descriptive statistics of the data; flood hazard map; return period; Housing; Climate change; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mitigating Climate Change at the Firm Level: Mind the Laggards
Damien Capelle
,
Divya Kirti
,
Nicola Pierri
, and
German Villegas Bauer
Using self-reported data on emissions for a global sample of 4,000 large, listed firms, we document large heterogeneity in environmental performance within the same industry and country. Laggards—firms with high emissions relative to the scale of their operations—are larger, operate older physical capital stocks, are less knowledge intensive and productive, and adopt worse management practices. To rationalize these findings, we build a novel general equilibrium heterogeneous-firm model in which firms choose capital vintages and R&D expenditure and hence emissions. The model matches the full empirical distribution of firm-level heterogeneity among other moments. Our counter-factual analysis shows that this heterogeneity matters for assessing the macroeconomic costs of mitigation policies, the channels through which policies act, and their distributional effects. We also quantify the gains from technology transfers to EMDEs.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Productivity; Technology Adoption; Capital Vintages; Emissions; R&D expenditure; capital vintage; management practice; emission intensity; emission Intensity; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Consumption; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
From Extreme Events to Extreme Seasons: Financial Stability Risks of Climate Change in Mexico
Michaela Dolk
,
Mr. Dimitrios Laliotis
, and
Sujan Lamichhane
This paper explores the financial stability implications of acute physical climate change risks using a novel approach that focuses on a severe season associated with a sequence of tropical cyclone and flood events. Our approach was recently applied to study physical risks in the Mexican financial sector, but the framework is applicable to other countries as well. We show that even if the scale of individual climate events may not be material at an aggregate national scale, considering a sequence of events could lead to potentially significant macro-financial impacts in the short term. This could occur even if none of the individual events affect the particular region(s) with highest concentrations of banking sector exposures. Our results indicate potential for even greater effects in the future given the increasing severity and frequency of extreme events from climate change. Thus, this paper highlights the importance of considering sequences of extreme physical risk events driven by climate change, rather than just individual extreme events, to better understand financial stability implications and design effective policies.
Keywords:
Climate change; physical risk; disasters; extreme seasons; financial stability; stress testing; climate change risk; risk event; IMF working paper No. 23/176; damage estimate; climate change condition; Natural disasters; Stocks; Financial sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Urban Land Rents on Total Factor Productivity
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
This paper addresses the puzzling decline of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) levels in rapidly growing economies, such as Singapore, despite advancements in technology and high GDP per capita growth. The paper proposes that TFP growth is not negative; instead, standard growth decompositions have underestimated TFP growth by overestimating the contribution of capital, failing to account for the substantial part of capital income directed to urban land rents. This leads to an overestimation of changes in capital stock's contribution to growth and thereby an underestimation of TFP growth. A revised decomposition suggests that TFP growth in economies with high land rents and rapid capital stock growth, such as Singapore, has been considerably underestimated: TFP levels have not declined but increased rapidly.
Keywords:
Total Factor Productivity; Economic Growth; Capital Stock; Land Rents; Growth Decomposition; Urban Economics; Population Density; Diminishing Returns to Scale; Technological Progress; Singapore; TFP level; re-estimating TFP; land rent; decline of total factor productivity; Capital income; Stocks; Land prices; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Carbon Policy and Stock Returns: Signals from Financial Markets
Martina Hengge
,
Ugo Panizza
, and
Richard Varghese
Understanding the impact of climate mitigation policies is key to designing effective carbon pricing tools. We use institutional features of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and high-frequency data on more than 2,000 publicly listed European firms over 2011-21 to study the impact of carbon policies on stock returns. After extracting the surprise component of regulatory actions, we show that events resulting in higher carbon prices lead to negative abnormal returns which increase with a firm's carbon intensity. This negative relationship is even stronger for firms in sectors which do not participate in the EU ETS suggesting that investors price in transition risk stemming from the shift towards a low-carbon economy. We conclude that policies which increase carbon prices are effective in raising the cost of capital for emission-intensive firms.
Keywords:
Carbon Emissions; Carbon Prices: Climate Change; Transition Risk; Stock Returns; carbon Policy surprise; investors price; carbon intensity; climate mitigation policy; EU ETS; Greenhouse gas emissions; Stocks; Asset prices; Climate change; Europe; Global; Emissions trading; stock return; carbon policy; EU Emissions Trading System; Climate policy
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Tale of Tier 3 Cities
Mr. Kenneth Rogoff
and
Yuanchen Yang
This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where imbalances might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper outside tier 1 cities.
Keywords:
China; Real Estate; Macro Economy; sector vulnerability; housing stock estimation; infrastructure construction; infrastructure investment; construction rate; Housing; Stocks; Infrastructure; Housing prices; Depreciation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU
Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well as market instruments. Each layer is calibrated to cover estimated fiscal cost of NDs according to intensity and expected damage. The results indicate that ECCU countries could target saving fund stocks for relativelly smaller and more frequent events in the range of 6-12 percent of GDP, enough to cover 95 percent of NDs’ fiscal costs. To ensure financially-sustainable saving funds with a low probability of depletion, this requires annual budget savings in the range os 0.5 to 1.9 percent of GDP per year. Additional coverage could be obtained with market instruments for large and less frequent events, albeit at a significant cost.The results are based on a Monte-Carlo experiment that simulates natural disaster shocks and their impact on output and government finances.
Keywords:
ECCU; fiscal cycles; Monte Carlo experiment; debt sustainability.; WP; SF stock; ECCU country; CCRIF payout; financing flow; annual budget; cost composition; insurance cost; Natural disasters; debt sustainability; payout amount; rate of return; Insurance; Standing facilities; Stocks; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Disaster Risks – Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model
Stefan Mittnik
,
Willi Semmler
, and
Alexander Haider
Recent research in financial economics has shown that rare large disasters have the potential to disrupt financial sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often entail negative feedback e?ects on the macroecon-omy. Research on disaster risks has also actively been pursued in the macroeconomic models of climate change. Our paper uses insights from the former work to study disaster risks in the macroeconomics of climate change and to spell out policy needs. Empirically the link between carbon dioxide emission and the frequency of climate re-lated disaster is investigated using cross-sectional and panel data. The modeling part then uses a multi-phase dynamic macro model to explore this causal nexus and the e?ects of rare large disasters resulting in capital losses and rising risk premia. Our proposed multi-phase dynamic model, incorporating climate-related disaster shocks and their aftermath as one phase, is suitable for studying mitigation and adaptation policies.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; capital stock; low income; risk pooling; climate economics; disaster risk; macro feedbacks; multi-phase macro model; monetary and financial policies; environmental economics; bond financing; credit policy; climate finance policy; bond issuing; climate bond; Bonds; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Climate policy; Natural disasters; Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Asia; North Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: The Case of St. Lucia
Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo
,
Mr. Leo Bonato
,
Mr. Giovanni Melina
, and
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
Resilience to climate change and natural disasters hinges on two fundamental elements: financial protection —insurance and self-insurance— and structural protection —investment in adaptation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to the St. Lucia’s economy, this paper shows that both strategies considerably reduce the output loss from natural disasters and studies the conditions under which each of the two strategies provides the best protection. While structural protection normally delivers a larger payoff because of its direct dampening effect on the cost of disasters, financial protection is superior when liquidity constraints limit the ability of the government to rebuild public capital promptly. The estimated trade-off is very sensitive to the efficiency of public investment.
Keywords:
WP; investment; adaptation capital; risk premium; Climate Change; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Government Policy; resilient capital; ECCU debt target; public capital; debt data; targeted debt reduction; Natural disasters; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Stocks; Caribbean