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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital, Capital Grants, and Growth
Ernesto Crivelli
Recent literature has explored the relationship between efficiency-adjusted public capital and economic growth. A debate on whether capital grants, and especially EU funds actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This paper empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991-2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series, constructed reflecting the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the paper illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.
Keywords:
WP; EU funds; capital stock; CESEE-EU country; EU member; investment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development and Source of Growth: New Evidence
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Mr. Robert Blotevogel
,
Mr. Mark Fischer
, and
Haiyan Shi
This paper examines how financial development affects the sources of growth—productivity and investment—using a sample of 145 countries for the period 1960-2011. We employ a range of econometric approaches, focusing on the CCA and MENA countries. The analysis looks beyond financial depth to capture the access, efficiency, stability, and openness dimensions of financial development. Yet even in this broad interpretation, financial development does not appear to be a magic bullet for economic growth. We cannot confirm earlier findings of an unambiguously positive relationship between financial development, investment, and productivity. The relationship is more complex. The influence of the different dimensions of financial development on the sources of growth varies across income levels and regions.
Keywords:
WP; capital stock growth; interest rate; Financial Development; Growth; Total Factor Productivity; Capital Accumulation; low income; productivity growth; capital adequacy ratio; inflation dummy; Financial sector development; Stock markets; Income; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Evaluating the Impact of Non-Financial IMF Programs Using the Synthetic Control Method
Ms. Monique Newiak
and
Tim Willems
We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the effect of IMF advice on economic growth, inflation, and investment. The analysis exploits the existence of IMF programs that do not involve any financing (Policy Support Instruments, “PSIs”). This enables us to focus on the effects of IMF monitoring, advice, and approval (as opposed to direct financial assistance). In addition, countries with non-financial programs are typically not crisis-struck – thereby mitigating the reverse causality problem and facilitating the construction of counterfactuals. Results suggest that treated countries add about 1 percentage point in annual real GDP per capita growth, with inflation being lower by some 3 percentage points per year. While we do not find evidence for an impact on total investment and the resulting capital stock, PSI-treatment does seem to stimulate foreign direct investment.
Keywords:
WP; adverse selection; absolute value; International Monetary Fund; Program-evaluation; Economic growth; Inflation; Investment; IMF operations; IMF loan-participation rate; treatment effect; IMF's executive board; PSI review; traditional IMF program; structural adjustment; causal effect of IMF-program; effectiveness of IMF-program; adoption of an IMF-program; types of IMF-engagement; Stocks; Consumer price indexes; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Das House-Kapital: A Long Term Housing & Macro Model
Volker Grossman
and
Thomas Steger
There are, by now, several long term, time series data sets on important housing & macro variables, such as land prices, house prices, and the housing wealth-to-income ratio. However, an appropriate theory that can be employed to think about such data and associated research questions has been lacking. We present a new housing & macro model that is designed specifically to analyze the long term. As an illustrative application, we demonstrate that the calibrated model replicates, with remarkable accuracy, the historical evolution of housing wealth (relative to income) after World War II and suggests a further considerable increase in the future. The model also accounts for the close connection of house prices to land prices in the data. We also compare our framework to the canonical housing & macro model, typically employed to analyze business cycles, and highlight the main differences.
Keywords:
WP; real estate; Housing Wealth; Non-Residential Wealth; Wealth-to-Income Ratios; macro model; land price; housing stock; macro Model; services producer; Housing; Housing prices; Land prices; Stocks; Numéraire
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Growth Return of Infrastructure in Latin America
Mr. Sergi Lanau
This paper examines the effects of improvements in infrastrucutre on sectoral growth and firm-level investment, focusing on six Latin American countries. Exploiting the heterogeneity in the quality of infrastructure across countries and the intrinsic variation in the dependence of sectors on infrastructure, I find that better infrastructure raises growth and investment. Improved infrastructure could yield large economic benefits. For example, if the quality of infrastructure in Colombia increased to the sample median (Czech Republic), GDP growth would increase by about 0.1 percentage points.
Keywords:
WP; infrastructure; growth; investment; investment rate; investment analysis; rate of firm; investment regression; investment plan; infrastructure investment; Transportation; Corporate investment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Edward F Buffie
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
,
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
,
Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
, and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We reconsider the macroeconomic implications of public investment efficiency, defined as the ratio between the actual increment to public capital and the amount spent. We show that, in a simple and standard model, increases in public investment spending in inefficient countries do not have a lower impact on growth than in efficient countries, a result confirmed in a simple cross-country regression. This apparently counter-intuitive result, which contrasts with Pritchett (2000) and recent policy analyses, follows directly from the standard assumption that the marginal product of public capital declines with the capital/output ratio. The implication is that efficiency and scarcity of public capital are likely to be inversely related across countries. It follows that both efficiency and the rate of return need to be considered together in assessing the impact of increases in investment, and blanket recommendations against increased public investment spending in inefficient countries need to be reconsidered. Changes in efficiency, in contrast, have direct and potentially powerful impacts on growth: “investing in investing” through structural reforms that increase efficiency, for example, can have very high rates of return.
Keywords:
WP; capital stock; production function; rate of return
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inclusive Growth: Measurement and Determinants
Rahul Anand
,
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
, and
Mr. Shanaka J Peiris
We estimate a unified measure of inclusive growth for emerging markets by integrating their economic growth performance and income distribution outcomes, using data over three decades. Country distributions are calibrated by combining PPP GDP per capita and income distribution from survey data. We apply the microeconomic concept of a social mobility function at the macroeconomic level to measure inclusive growth that is closer to the absolute definition of pro-poor growth. This dynamic measure permits us to focus on inequality as well as distinguish between countries where per capita income growth was the same for the top and the bottom of the income pyramid, by accounting for the pace of growth. Our results indicate that macroeconomic stability, human capital, and structural changes are foundations for achieving inclusive growth. The role of globalization could also be positive with foreign direct investment and trade openess fostering greater inclusiveness, while financial deepening and technological change have no discernible effect.
Keywords:
WP; income; economic growth; pro-poor growth; distribution; equity; inequality; inclusive growth; distribution outcome; income growth; income contraction; value chain; low income country; equity index of income; Personal income; Income inequality; Income distribution; Stocks; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
,
Mr. Alvar Kangur
,
Mr. Abdoul A Wane
, and
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
This paper constructs an efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series and re-examines the public capital and growth relationship for 52 developing countries. The results show that public capital is a significant contributor to economic growth. Although the estimated coefficient for the income share of public capital is larger in middle- than in low-income countries, the opposite is true for the marginal product of public capital. The quality of public investment, as measured by variables capturing the adequacy of project selection and implementation, are statistically significant in explaining variations in economic growth, a result mainly driven by low-income countries.
Keywords:
WP; production function; public capital; Public capital stock; public investment efficiency; appraisal; selection; implementation; evaluation of public investment; growth accounting; investment process; ICRG investment profile; process carry; investment effort; management process; Public investment spending; Stocks; Capital productivity; Estimation techniques
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth and Recovery in Mongolia During Transition
Mr. Kevin C Cheng
This paper studies Mongolia's experience of growth and recovery during the first decade of its transition to a market-based system and compares it with those of other transition economies. Mongolia, like most other transition economies, experienced a painful, initial "transformational recession" before the economy began to recover, with efficiency gains the main source of growth during the early stages of transition. Mongolia's transition process has been relatively smooth compared with other transition economies, probably reflecting the combined effects of some favorable initial conditions, coupled with the early adoption of appropriate adjustment policies and market-oriented reforms.
Keywords:
WP; Mongolia; process; economy; deflator; transition; growth accounting; transition economy; output performance; growth performance; depreciation rate; transition process; output recovery; sources of growth; primary sector; Total factor productivity; Stocks; Production growth; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Real Convergence to EU Income Levels: Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term
Mr. Guorong Jiang
,
Mr. Peter Doyle
, and
Louis Kuijs
The paper discusses factors likely to shape the nature and pace of economic growth of five Central European transition countries now engaged in accession to the European Union. It is organized around the standard growth accounting framework. The paper reviews the growth of these countries since 1990 and draws lessons from the growth experiences of other regions since the 1950s, shedding light on long-term growth prospects for these countries. It discusses a set of growth calculations and highlights the key uncertainties in them.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; GDP ratio; State intervention; TFP result; Transition; EU accession; growth; growth accounting; Central Europe; investment ratio; TFP performance; output ratio; investment climate; Total factor productivity; Stocks; Productivity; Production growth; Western Europe; East Asia; Eastern Europe; Europe