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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Satellite-Based Census of Residential Buildings: Application for Climate Risk Assessment
Andinet Woldemichael
and
Iyke Maduako
Housing represents the largest asset and liability, in the form of mortgages, on most national balance sheet. For most households it is their largest investment, and when mortgages are required also represents the largest component of household debt. It is also directly tied to financial markets, both the mortgage market and insurance sector. Although many countries have a rich set of housing censuses and statistics, others have large data gap in this area and therefore struggle to formulate effective policies. This paper proposes an approach to construct a global census of residential buildings using opensource satellite data. Such a layer can be used to assess the extent these buildings are exposed to climate hazards and how their production and consumption, in turn, affect the climate. The approach we propose could be scaled globally, combining existing layers of building footprints, climate and socioeconomic data. It adds to the ongoing effort of compiling spatially explicit and granular climate indicators to better inform policies. As a case study, we compute selected indicators and estimate the extent of residential properties exposure to riverine flood risk for Kenya.
Keywords:
Census of buildings; Climate Exposure; Building Footprint; flood risk; property indicator; aggregate dwellings Capital Stock value; descriptive statistics of the data; flood hazard map; return period; Housing; Climate change; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Tale of Tier 3 Cities
Mr. Kenneth Rogoff
and
Yuanchen Yang
This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where imbalances might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper outside tier 1 cities.
Keywords:
China; Real Estate; Macro Economy; sector vulnerability; housing stock estimation; infrastructure construction; infrastructure investment; construction rate; Housing; Stocks; Infrastructure; Housing prices; Depreciation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Regulation and Supervision of Secondary Markets
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Hong Kong SAR has, over the recent years, become an equity trading hub catering to domestic and foreign investors, including increasingly to investors from Mainland China. Most trading is conducted on markets operated by recognized exchange companies, with limited domestic trading happening via automated trading services (ATS) providers in the form of alternative liquidity pools. The introduction of Stock Connect in 2014 enabled investors from Hong Kong (including domestic and foreign) to directly invest in the Shanghai and later Shenzhen markets and investors from the Mainland to directly access the Hong Kong market. Trading via Stock Connect has seen a steady rise over the last few years, increasing the linkages between Hong Kong SAR and the Mainland. Mainland companies currently account for over 60 per cent of market capitalization of the equities traded on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK).
Keywords:
People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; China securities regulatory commission; Hong Kong exchange; ATS provider; market risk monitoring; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Trade systems; Securities; Stocks; Stock markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Andreas Fagereng
,
Luigi Guiso
,
Mr. Davide Malacrino
, and
Luigi Pistaferri
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Keywords:
WP; private equity; expected return; long-term debt; wealth distribution; Wealth inequality; returns to wealth; net worth; heterogeneity; intergenerational mobility; financial wealth; wealth return regression; return heterogeneity; book value; portfolio return; assets return; heterogeneity channel; market value; risk tolerance; wealth share; return on assets; Income distribution; Stocks; Housing; Capital income; Income
Cover IMF Working Papers
Das House-Kapital: A Long Term Housing & Macro Model
Volker Grossman
and
Thomas Steger
There are, by now, several long term, time series data sets on important housing & macro variables, such as land prices, house prices, and the housing wealth-to-income ratio. However, an appropriate theory that can be employed to think about such data and associated research questions has been lacking. We present a new housing & macro model that is designed specifically to analyze the long term. As an illustrative application, we demonstrate that the calibrated model replicates, with remarkable accuracy, the historical evolution of housing wealth (relative to income) after World War II and suggests a further considerable increase in the future. The model also accounts for the close connection of house prices to land prices in the data. We also compare our framework to the canonical housing & macro model, typically employed to analyze business cycles, and highlight the main differences.
Keywords:
WP; real estate; Housing Wealth; Non-Residential Wealth; Wealth-to-Income Ratios; macro model; land price; housing stock; macro Model; services producer; Housing; Housing prices; Land prices; Stocks; Numéraire
Cover IMF Working Papers
Gauging Housing Supply in Canada: A Stock Approach
Julien Reynaud
This paper estimates Canada’s housing stock to gauge the supply-side component of the recent exuberance in the Canadian housing sector. The paper adds to the current related literature by focusing on housing units and reconstructing housing stock and households series. An error correction model is estimated at the provincial level over the period 1980-2013 to estimate a measure of housing stock desequilibrium. The model predicts an excess supply in the order of ½ percent above the housing stock level consistent with fundamentals as of 2013.
Keywords:
WP; housing stock; excess supply; Housing; Real Estate; Canada; resale housing price movement; stock model; stock equilibrium; housing unit; Stocks; Housing prices
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Financial Integration in the GCC
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
,
Mr. Oral Williams
, and
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
We investigate the extent of regional financial integration in the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The limited volume data available suggests that regional integration is non-negligible. Bahrain and Kuwait investments especially are oriented towards the region. The development of stock markets in the region will also improve the extent of financial integration. Interest rate data shows that convergence exists and that interest rate differentials are relatively short-lived-especially compared to the ECCU, another emerging market region sharing a common currency. Equities data using cross-listed stocks confirms that stock markets are fairly integrated compared to other emerging market regions, although financial integration is hampered by market illiquidity.
Keywords:
WP; GCC; Total GCC; price
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Housing Wealth An 'ATM'? the Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity withdrawal, and Saving Rates
Mr. Vladimir Klyuev
and
Mr. Paul S. Mills
This paper examines the role increasing personal wealth and home equity withdrawal (HEW) have had in the decline in the personal saving rate in the United States. It does so by comparing the U.S. experience with those of Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Mortgage market liberalization and innovation should reduce household cash flow and collateral constraints while making housing wealth more liquid as HEW becomes easier over time. Regression analysis indicates the expected negative relationship between U.S. saving and net worth, with a somewhat smaller coefficient than in previous studies. HEW is estimated to have a temporary negative impact on saving of the order of 20 cents on the dollar.
Keywords:
WP; saving rate; home equity withdrawal; rate; financial asset; Household Saving; Housing Finance; home equity; mortgage innovation; rate change; net saving; saving ratio; credit scoring; mortgage securitization; role HEW; mortgage product; housing wealth; inflation rate; Mortgages; Stocks; Housing; Housing prices; Consumption
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investment in Housing in the United States: A Portfolio Approach: The Possible Effects of Changes in Tax Policy
Krister Andersson
It is well known that the preferential tax treatment of housing induces an inefficient allocation of saving and investment. This paper analyzes, in a portfolio framework, how eliminating the deductibility of mortgage interest payments for federal income tax purposes might affect investment in housing. Expected rate of return and risk is estimated for three assets, bonds, housing, and stocks. The possibility that assets are imperfect substitutes is explicitly recognized in one section of the paper. The model suggests that the share of housing is likely to decrease by 4 to 9 percentage points if mortgage interest payments are not deductible. This may call for careful phasing of the change in policy.
Keywords:
WP; rate of return; asset; portfolio; investor; mortgage interest payment; tax treatment; portfolio model; housing share; assets' rates of return; mortgage interest deductibility; Housing; Mortgages; Interest payments; Stocks; Income tax systems