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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States
Edouard Martin
and
Felix J Vardy
This paper examines the macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries from 2009 to 2022, focusing on how macroeconomic targets and their achievement differ between fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS. Key findings include similar program targets for FCS and non-FCS, optimism in all dimensions considered other than inflation, and no significant correlation between targets and outcomes. For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes. This underscores the challenges in setting realistic, country and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries. Finally, we discuss potential caveats, including GDP rebenchmarking, non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets, and repeat programs. We do not study, and make no claims about, causality.
Keywords:
IMF Programs; LICs; Fragility; Tailoring; Optimism; appendix H. country classification; fragile and conflicted-affected states; histogram of program approval; growth optimism; IMF country team; FCS classification; Pb XOXG; FCS program; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Wages; Debt reduction; Stocks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of and Prospects for Market Access in Frontier Economies
Luiza Antoun de Almeida
and
Ms. Diva Singh
In recent years, we have observed an increase in low-income countries’ (LICs) access to international capital markets, especially after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates what factors—country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals and/or external variables—have contributed to the surge in external bond issuance by these LICs, which we refer to in our paper as ‘frontier economies’. Using data on public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external bond issuance, outstanding PPG bond stock, as well as sovereign spreads, we employ panel data analysis to examine factors related to the increase in issuance by these economies as well as the reduction in their spreads over time. Our empirical study shows that both country-specific fundamentals (such as public debt, current account balance, level of reserves, quality of institutions) and external variables (such as US growth and the VIX index) play a role in explaining the increased amount of issuance and the decline in spreads of frontier economies’ sovereign bonds. The impact of some of these variables on issuance appears to reflect a country’s need to issue bonds for external financing (‘the supply side’ of bond issuance), while others appear to correlate more through their impact on investors’ appetite for a country’s debt (‘the demand side’). In addition, the impact of country-specific variables can also be affected by external factors such as global risk appetite. Our analysis of key factors that have contributed to increased market access for frontier economies over the past decade provides important information to gauge the prospects for their continued market access, and for other LICs to join this group by tapping international markets for the first time.
Keywords:
frontier economy; market access; PPG bond stock; PPG issuance; data on public and publicly guaranteed; Bonds; International capital markets; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Paul Henri Mathieu
,
Mr. Marco Pani
,
Shiyuan Chen
, and
Mr. Rodolfo Maino
Using data collected from pan-African banks’ (PABs), balance sheets and other sources (Orbis, Fitch), this study identifies some key patterns of cross-border investment in bank subsidiaries by key banking groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and discusses some of the determinants of this investment. Using a gravity model relating the annual value of a banking group’s investment in the net equity of its subsidiaries to a set of explanatory variables, the analysis finds that cross-border banking is in part driven by a search for yield, diversification, and expansion for strategic reasons.
Keywords:
WP; break; center; exchange rate; Cross-border banking flows; Bank leverage; Global banks; Group profitability; banking group variable; Group size; vis-à-vis intra-group; net equity; host country pair; bank subsidiary; pan-African banking groups; Exchange rates; Cross-border banking; Inflation; Stocks; Gravity models; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; West Africa; North Africa
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Direct Reporting of Private Sector Cross-Border Financial Flows and Stocks in Selected African Countries
Kenneth Egesa
and
Howard Murad
Private cross-border financial flows and stocks have grown to account for an increasingly significant part of overall transactions and positions in many African countries. Direct reporting through enterprise surveys has become a key data source to enable them to be measured accurately. The paper describes a multi-year technical assistance project in The Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, and Nigeria, where annual enterprise surveys are now established. To varying degrees, the survey results have been incorporated into the balance of payments and International Investment Position statistics. The case studies may serve as a useful reference for other countries embarking on efforts to establish direct reporting of cross-border financial flows and stocks.
Keywords:
TNM; enterprise survey; survey frame; EDDI project; enterprise group; balance sheet account; IIP data; International Investment Position; International Capital Flows; Balance of Payments Statistics in Africa; portfolio investment; Foreign direct investment; Portfolio investment; Balance of payments statistics; Stocks; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Regional Cross-listings Accelerate Stock Market Development? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund
This study analyzes the impact of regional cross-listing of stocks on the depth of the stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It analyzes data from 1990 to 2007 for a panel of 13 stock markets in SSA countries, only some of which have regional cross-listings. Using event study methodology, the paper finds significant positive effects in measures of stock market depth around regional cross-listing events. Overall, growth in the regional crosslisting of stocks facilitates stock market deepening, and the stock markets of countries with regional cross-listings perform better than those without. The study thus suggests that SSA countries can benefit from putting in place the necessary conditions for promoting regional cross-listings and thereby deepening their stock markets. These include sound legal and regulatory frameworks, macroeconomic and political stability, harmonization of listing rules, accounting laws and disclosure requirements across the region, and strong money markets.
Keywords:
WP; firm; stock; listed firm; GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
,
Ms. Beatrice Weder
, and
Mr. Christoph A Klingen
We estimate ex post returns to emerging market debt by combining secondary-market prices with observed flows based on World Bank data. From 1970-2000, returns averaged 9 percent per annum, about the same as returns on a ten-year U.S. treasury bond. This reflects the combined effect of the 1980s debt crisis and much higher returns during 1989-2000. Annual returns since 1986 have been less volatile than emerging market equity returns but more volatile than returns on U.S. corporate or high-yield bonds. However, unlike returns on these bonds, emerging market debt returns do not seem significantly correlated with U.S. or world stock markets.
Keywords:
WP; secondary market; debt crisis; emerging market debt; debt flow; debt stock; sovereign debt; crises; returns capital flows; debt price; flow series; debt restructuring operation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Securities markets; Stock markets; Stocks; Asia and Pacific
Cover External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa
External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Mounting external debt and large-scale capital flight have been at the forefront of Africa's economic problems since the 1980s. External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa, edited by S. Ibi Ajayi and Mohsin S. Khan, takes a penetrating look at debt and capital flight during the 1990s in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. The book describes the size and composition of debt in the selected countries and examines the causes of the debt buildup. It also assesses the extent of capital flight and suggests ways of stemming the flight of financial resources.

Keywords:
BOOK; debt; flight of capital; foreign exchange; structural adjustment; debt problem; capital flight estimate; Capital outflows; Debt burden; Debt service; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; East Asia; North Africa; Caribbean