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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis
Ms. Majdeline El Rayess
,
Avril Halstead
,
Jason Harris
,
Mr. John Ralyea
, and
Alexander F. Tieman
Public sector balance sheets (PSBS) provide a framework for comprehensive and deep analysis of fiscal risks and policies. To illustrate these benefits, this paper shows how PSBS analysis can be applied to assess risks to Indonesia’s public sector stemming from its public corporations. The paper also shows that the government’s plans to finance a ramp-up in public investment with additional tax revenue increases both economic growth and public wealth.
Keywords:
WP; asset; GDP; real GDP; investment; balance sheet; Public Sector Balance Sheet; Intertemporal Fiscal Balances; Public Investment; Indonesia.; asset revaluation; return on equity; public sector; baseline GDP; nonfinancial public corporation asset; cash flow; asset instrument; current ratio; Business enterprises; Financial statements; Public sector; Public investment spending; Stocks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: a Global VAR approach
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli
and
Nour Tawk
We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-à-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia’s GDP tended to be positive and significant. Our results suggest that the positive effect of QQE on expectations, by improving confidence, more than offset any negative exchange rate spillover due to expenditure switching from domestic demand to Japanese goods. They also suggest that spillovers from QQE might have worked mainly through the impact of expectations and improved confidence, captured by increases in equity prices, rather than through balance sheet adjustments which might have been captured by movements in the monetary base.
Keywords:
WP; price; Japan; interest rate; Japan's QQE; net export; QQE; Spillovers; Emerging Asia; equity price; Japan MSCI index; currency appreciation; Japan's price competitiveness; equity price shock; Japan's quantitative easing program; QQE in Japan; stock price effect; price boom; equity price increase; Inflation; Stocks; Monetary base; Unconventional monetary policies; Exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Mr. Stijn Claessens
, and
Mr. Damien Puy
This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.
Keywords:
WP; equity; equity flow; portfolio equity; Push factors; capital flows; emerging markets; mutual funds; global banks; bond flow; MSCI emerging market index; market characteristic; investor base; inflows to EMs; equity inflow; Bonds; Stocks; Stock markets; Capital inflows; Global; Europe; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Implementation of the IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses implementation of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) objectives and principles of securities regulation in Indonesia. The Capital Markets and Financial Institutions Supervisory Agency (BAPEPAM-LK) has taken impressive steps to increase the transparency of regulation and to institute a comprehensive operational program that meets international norms and Indonesia’s understanding of best practices. This paper reveals that the regulatory framework, regulatory powers, and requirements pertaining to the securities regulator are highly transparent. The roles of the regulators and supervisors are also clearly defined.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BAPEPAM-LK rule; BAPEPAM-LK staff; BAPEPAM-LK report; BAPEPAM-LK reviews non-member firms; e-monitoring system; spot market; member firm; insider trading; working capital; BAPEPAM-LK regulation; letter of credit; BAPEPAM-LK investigator; BAPEPAM-LK state; Securities; Capital markets; Mutual funds; Legal support in revenue administration; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sudden Stops, Output Drops, and Credit Collapses
Jihad Dagher
This paper proposes a tractable Sudden Stop model to explain the main patterns in firm level data in a sample of Southeast Asian firms during the Asian crisis. The model, which features trend shocks and financial frictions, is able to generate the main patterns observed in the sample during and following the Asian crisis, including the ensuing credit-less recovery, which are also patterns broadly shared by most Sudden Stop episodes as documented in Calvo et al. (2006). The model also proposes a novel explanation as to why small firms experience steeper declines than their larger peers as documented in this paper. This size effect is generated under the assumption that small firms are growth firms, to which there is support in the data. Trend shocks when combined with financial frictions in this model also generate strong leverage effects in line with what is observed in the sample, and with other observations from the literature.
Keywords:
WP; mover accent; market value; business cycle; interest rate; transition probability; Financial liberalization; welfare gain; financial deepening; economic growth; small firm; maximization problem; productivity parameter; firm decrease; growth firm; leverage firm; Sudden stops; Financial frictions; Stocks; Business cycles; Southeast Asia
Cover Official Financing
Official Financing
Recent Developments and Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This study provides information on official financing and the debt situation of developing countries. It discusses issues related to trade finance in financial crises, and the challenge of maintaining external debt sustainability in debtor countries. It updates the 2001 edition of Official Financing for Developing Countries.

Keywords:
WEFS; financing; debt; developing country; Paris; net official development assistance; ODA figure; debt indicator; HIPC relief; ODA flow; Export credits; Trade finance; Debt relief; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Global; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-Border Listings, Capital Controls, and U.S. Equity Flows to Emerging Markets
Ms. Hali J Edison
and
Mr. Francis E. Warnock
We analyze capital flows to emerging markets in a framework that incorporates two quantitative measures of financial integration, the intensity of capital controls and the extent of cross border listings, while controlling for traditional global (push) and country specific (pull) factors. Two important results emerge. First, the cross listing of an emerging market firm on a U.S. exchange is an important but short lived capital flows event, suggesting that the cross listed stock is in effect a new security that U.S. investors quickly bring into their portfolios. Second, the effect of financial liberalization on capital flows is more nuanced than is suggested by event studies: A reduction in capital controls results in increased inflows only when the controls are binding. Among the standard push and pull factors, global factors are important-slack U.S. economic activity is associated with increased flows to emerging markets-and U.S. investors appear to chase expected, but not past, returns.
Keywords:
WP; capital control; equity flow; market equities; flows data; portfolio equity flows; capital flows; emerging markets; ADRs; flows datum; emerging market equity; capital controls lead; emerging market borrowing costs; portfolio equity; composite index; model capital control; tic flows datum; U.S. Treasury International; emerging markets sample; Capital controls; Stocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Market capitalization; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It looks at what precisely is meant by herding, the causes of herd behavior, the success of existing studies in identifying the phenomenon, and the effect that herding has on financial markets. The paper also surveys a selected number of studies that evaluated the demand for money using the error-correction model approach in the 1990s across a range of industrial and developing countries.
Keywords:
SP; price level; inflation rate; credit growth; reserve country; indexed debt; country estimate; pegged-rate regime; issuance policy; Stocks; Exchange rate arrangements; Inflation; Domestic credit; Exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region
Mr. Tim Callen
and
Warwick J. McKibbin
This paper uses the G-Cubed (Asia-Pacific) model-a macroeconomic model with rich cross-country links-to explore the implications for Japan and Asia of several shocks to the Japanese economy. The results suggest that, while fiscal consolidation in Japan would initially dampen domestic growth, over the medium term the impact on both the domestic and regional economies would be positive. Quantitative monetary easing in Japan would boost domestic activity in the short-run, while being basically neutral for the region. Finally, a loss of confidence in the yen would be negative for Japan, but positive for the region because of a reallocation of capital flows toward non-Japan Asia.
Keywords:
WP; Japan; real GDP; price; real interest rate; Asia-Pacific region; macroeconomic model; yen depreciation; equity price; role Japan; BoJ purchase; price effect; imports of machinery; depreciation of the yen; foreign direct investment; Real interest rates; Exports; Fiscal consolidation; Imports; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Flight Capital as a Portfolio Choice
Anke Hoeffler
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Paul Collier
This paper sets flight capital in the context of portfolio choice, focusing upon the proportion of private wealth that is held abroad. There are large regional differences in this proportion, ranging from 5 percent in South Asia to 40 percent in Africa. We explain cross-country differences in portfolio choice by variables that proxy differences in the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. We apply the results to four policy questions: how the East Asian crisis affected domestic capital outflows; herd effects; the effect of the IMF-World Bank debt relief initiative for heavily-indebted poor countries (HIPC) on capital repatriation; and why so much of Africa’s private wealth is held outside the continent.
Keywords:
WP; institutional investor; risk rating; increases in capital capital flight; capital flight literature; rate of return; Capital flight; portfolio choice; capital flight share; cline capital flight measure; flight capital; Capital outflows; Stocks; Foreign assets; Real exchange rates; East Asia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia; Middle East