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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of and Prospects for Market Access in Frontier Economies
Luiza Antoun de Almeida
and
Ms. Diva Singh
In recent years, we have observed an increase in low-income countries’ (LICs) access to international capital markets, especially after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates what factors—country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals and/or external variables—have contributed to the surge in external bond issuance by these LICs, which we refer to in our paper as ‘frontier economies’. Using data on public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external bond issuance, outstanding PPG bond stock, as well as sovereign spreads, we employ panel data analysis to examine factors related to the increase in issuance by these economies as well as the reduction in their spreads over time. Our empirical study shows that both country-specific fundamentals (such as public debt, current account balance, level of reserves, quality of institutions) and external variables (such as US growth and the VIX index) play a role in explaining the increased amount of issuance and the decline in spreads of frontier economies’ sovereign bonds. The impact of some of these variables on issuance appears to reflect a country’s need to issue bonds for external financing (‘the supply side’ of bond issuance), while others appear to correlate more through their impact on investors’ appetite for a country’s debt (‘the demand side’). In addition, the impact of country-specific variables can also be affected by external factors such as global risk appetite. Our analysis of key factors that have contributed to increased market access for frontier economies over the past decade provides important information to gauge the prospects for their continued market access, and for other LICs to join this group by tapping international markets for the first time.
Keywords:
frontier economy; market access; PPG bond stock; PPG issuance; data on public and publicly guaranteed; Bonds; International capital markets; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Stocks; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Capital Market Union for Europe
Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia
,
Ms. Srobona Mitra
,
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Luiza Antoun de Almeida
,
Cristina Cuervo
,
Mr. Andre O Santos
, and
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
This note weighs the merits of a capital market union (CMU) for Europe, identifies major obstacles in its path, and recommends a set of carefully targeted policy actions. European capital markets are relatively small, resulting in strong bank-dependence, and are split sharply along national lines. Results include an uneven playing field in terms of corporate funding costs, the rationing out of collateral-constrained firms, and limited shock absorption. The benefits of integration center on expanding financial choice, ultimately to support capital formation and resilience. Capital market development and integration would support a healthy diversity in European finance. Proceeding methodically, the note identifies three key barriers to greater capital market integration in Europe: transparency, regulatory quality, and insolvency practices. Based on these findings, the note urges three policy priorities, focused on the three barriers. There is no roadblock—such steps should prove feasible without a new grand bargain.
Keywords:
SDN; EU counterparty; EU capital market practitioner; euro area; EU capital market rule; EU treaty; EU venture capital funds; Capital market union; financial integration; bilateral portfolio flows; monetary union; investment firm; funding cost; growth performance; private equity; equity valuation; capital market market fragmentation; nonfinancial firm; company information; Capital markets; Securities; Stocks; Mutual funds; Solvency; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks
Ms. Yu Shi
,
Robert M. Townsend
, and
Wu Zhu
Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can propagate corporate shareholders’ credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries investment by 1% of their tangible fixed asset value, which accounts for 71% (7%) of the median (average) investment rate among these firms. We argue that equity exchanges is one channel through which corporate shareholders transmit bank credit supply shocks to the subsidiaries and provide empirical evidence to support the channel.
Keywords:
WP; subsidiary firm; trade credit; bank financing condition; profit margin; Internal capital markets; business groups; bank lending; China; credit supply shocks; business group; Credit; Supply shocks; Bank credit; Stocks; Asset valuation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Delegated Portfolio Management, Benchmarking, and the Effects on Financial Markets
Ms. Deniz O Igan
and
Marcelo Pinheiro
We analyze the implications of linking the compensation of fund managers to the return of their portfolio relative to that of a benchmark—a common solution to the agency problem in delegated portfolio management. In the presence of such relativeperformance- based objectives, investors have reduced expected utility but markets are typically more informative and deeper. Furthermore, in a multiple asset/market framework we show that (i) relative performance concerns lead to an increase in the correlation between markets (financial contagion); (ii) benchmark inclusion increases price volatility; (iii) home bias emerges as a rational outcome. When information is costly, information acquisition is hindered and this attenuates the effects on informativeness and depth of the market.
Keywords:
WP
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies
Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena
,
Milan Nedeljkovic
, and
Christian Saborowski
This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size—which we interpret to be associated with liquidity and easy entry and exit—rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasingly substituted for banks in channeling liquidity to EMs. Our results highlight the risk of capital flow reversal in EMs that benefited from the upturn in the global financial cycle mostly due to their liquid markets rather than strong fundamentals.
Keywords:
WP; bond market development; bond market market concentration; global bond market boom; debt stock; development benefit; disadvantages bond market investor; Bond markets; Capital flows; Emerging Markets; NFC debt; bond market boom; bond market access; Securities markets; Bonds; Bank credit; Stocks; Loans; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Asia’s Stock Markets: Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?
Mr. Fabian Lipinsky
and
Ms. Li L Ong
Stock markets play a key role in corporate financing in Asia. However, despite their increasing importance in terms of size and cross-border investment activity, the region’s markets are reputed to be more “idiosyncratic” and less reliant on economic and corporate fundamentals in their pricing. Using a model that draws on international asset pricing and economic theory, as well as accounting literature, we find evidence of greater idiosyncratic influences in the pricing of Asia’s stock markets, compared to their G-7 counterparts, beyond the identified systematic factors and local fundamentals. We also show proof of a significant relationship between the strength of implementation of securities regulations and the “noise” in stock pricing, which suggests that improvements in the regulation of securities markets in Asia could enhance the role of stock markets as stable and reliable sources of financing into the future.
Keywords:
WP; IOSCO; business cycle; arbitrage pricing theory; Asian financial crisis; fundamentals; global financial crisis; idiosyncratic factors; integration; securities regulation; stock market; stock pricing; term structure of interest rates; Tokyo SE group; stock market return; Shenzhen SE; London SE group; market liquidity; stock market volatility; Asia's stock markets; Shanghai SE; Indonesia SE; Osaka SE; stock market capitalization; Santiago SE; Stock markets; Asset prices; Securities markets; Stocks; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Bonding: Do U.S. Bond and Equity Spillovers Dominate Global Financial Markets?
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
and
Mr. Trung T Bui
This paper uses a novel variant of identification through hetroscedacity to estimate spillovers across U.S., Euro area, Japanese, and UK government bond and equity markets in a vector autoregression. The results suggest that U.S. financial shocks reverberate around the world much more strongly than shocks from other regions, including the Euro area, while inward spillovers to the U.S. from elsewhere are minimal. There is also evidence of two-way spillovers between the UK and Euro area financial markets and spillovers from Europe to Japan. The results also suggest that the uncertainty about the direction of causality of contemporaneous correlations—an issue that other techniques cannot tackle—is the dominant source of uncertainty in the estimated impulse response functions.
Keywords:
WP; market; bond yield; bond market; coefficient; Identification; international financial linkages; UK bond yield shock; equity price; market closing; impulse response function; government bond market; spillover coefficient; Stock markets; Bond yields; Spillovers; Securities markets; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Implementation of the IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses implementation of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) objectives and principles of securities regulation in Indonesia. The Capital Markets and Financial Institutions Supervisory Agency (BAPEPAM-LK) has taken impressive steps to increase the transparency of regulation and to institute a comprehensive operational program that meets international norms and Indonesia’s understanding of best practices. This paper reveals that the regulatory framework, regulatory powers, and requirements pertaining to the securities regulator are highly transparent. The roles of the regulators and supervisors are also clearly defined.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BAPEPAM-LK rule; BAPEPAM-LK staff; BAPEPAM-LK report; BAPEPAM-LK reviews non-member firms; e-monitoring system; spot market; member firm; insider trading; working capital; BAPEPAM-LK regulation; letter of credit; BAPEPAM-LK investigator; BAPEPAM-LK state; Securities; Capital markets; Mutual funds; Legal support in revenue administration; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Causes of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
and
Patrick A. Imam
We first illustrate that emerging markets (EMs) face a shortage of financial assets, with financial assets not growing as rapidly as domestic savings. We then estimate the asset shortage in EMs for 1995-2008. We develop a model that explains how asset shortage develop, and then econometrically estimate the causes of asset shortages. We conclude with policy implications.
Keywords:
WP; asset shortage; fixed income; incomplete market; money supply; supply and demand; Emerging Market; Capital Market; Regulation; asset issuance; asset supply; private equity; EM asset class; venture capital; asset shortage problem; asset class; asset shortage Indexit; risk asset class; asset shortage persistence; supply of financial assets; Capital markets; Pension spending; Foreign assets; Stocks; Securities markets; East Asia; Middle East; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey
Mr. R. G Gelos
Gaining a better understanding of the behavior of international investors is key for informing the debate about the optimal response to capital flows and about reforms to the international financial architecture. In this context, recent research on the behavior of international mutual funds at the micro level has expanded our knowledge about the drivers of portfolio flows and the mechanisms behind the transmission of financial shocks across countries. This paper provides a brief survey of this literature, with a focus on the empirical evidence for emerging markets. Overall, the behavior of international mutual funds is complex and overly simplistic characterizations are misleading. However, there is broad-based evidence for momentum trading among funds. Moreover, funds tend to avoid opaque markets and assets, and this behavior becomes more pronounced during volatile times. Portfolio rebalancing mechanisms are clearly important in explaining contagion patterns, even in the absence of common macroeconomic fundamentals. From a surveillance point of view, this implies that monitoring the exposures of large investors at a micro level is crucial to assess vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
WP; emerging market; fund; mutual fund; equity fund