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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report on Government Finance Statistics Mission-(October 10–21, 2022)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance report on Suriname highlights proceedings of the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) mission. The authorities have partially followed the recommendations from previous mission that took place in April 2022. While there has been significant progress in below-the-line data, little progress has been made in above-the-line data. Compilers from the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Suriname have compiled a financial balance sheet of the Central Government (CG) to assure the integration of flows with the stocks of financial assets and liabilities. In addition, they perform regular consistency checks of data on the CG deposits and loans with the recordings in the banking system. No developments have been achieved regarding the institutional sector coverage and little progress has been done regarding the above-the-line data compilation. One of the main issues that hamper GFS data quality is that no comprehensive data on the government revenues and expenditure exist in Suriname. The mission provided an extended hands-on training for the main GFS team compiling above-the-line transactions.
Keywords:
government finance Statistics mission; IMF's Statistics department; Suriname debt management office; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; GFS compiler; Government finance statistics; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Commercial banks; Stocks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top-Down Stress Testing Perspective
Mr. Marco Gross
,
Mindaugas Leika
, and
Pavel Lukyantsau
The objective of this paper is to present an integrated tool suite for IFRS 9- and CECL-compatible estimation in top-down solvency stress tests. The tool suite serves as an illustration for institutions wishing to include accounting-based approaches for credit risk modeling in top-down stress tests. The tool suite is made available online along with this paper.
Keywords:
WP; transition matrix; financial asset; balance sheet; accounting regime; interest rate; provision stock; bank portfolio model; modeling choice; bank-portfolio level; Lt-ECL ratio; provision flow; International Financial Reporting Standards; Stress testing; Stocks; Loans; Loan loss provisions; Global; Credit risk; IFRS 9; CECL; lifetime probability of default; LGD modeling; Distressed assets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Enhanced Heavily-Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative-Preliminary Document
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative Program’s preliminary document discusses that as per the agreement by the IMF, Somalia can be eligible for debt relief under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative. It provides a clear recognition of Somalia’s sustained commitment to key economic and financial reforms under consecutive staff-monitored programs with the IMF. Helping Somalia achieve debt relief and unlock access to the needed resources to increase growth and reduce poverty is a key priority for the IMF. Once Somalia has reached the Completion Point, it would qualify for unconditional debt relief under the HIPC Initiative, and for debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) from the World Bank's International Development Association and the African Development Fund, together with beyond-HIPC assistance from the IMF. Paris Club creditors are also expected to provide further beyond-HIPC assistance at the Completion Point. With HIPC, MDRI and beyond HIPC assistance, Somalia’s NPV of debt-to-exports ratio is projected to decline from 491.7 percent in 2018 to 57.0 percent in 2027 and 41.5 percent in 2038.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; Enhanced HIPC Initiative; public finance management; reform agenda; reform; Somalia's eligibility; Somali authorities; sustained commitment; Club creditor; Debt relief; Arrears; Debt service; Debt service ratios; Stocks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Capital and the Cost of Equity
Mohamed Belkhir
,
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
, and
Anis Semet
Using a sample of publicly listed banks from 62 countries over the 1991-2017 period, we investigate the impact of capital on banks’ cost of equity. Consistent with the theoretical prediction that more equity in the capital mix leads to a fall in firms’ costs of equity, we find that better capitalized banks enjoy lower equity costs. Our baseline estimations indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in a bank’s equity-to-assets ratio lowers its cost of equity by about 18 basis points. Our results also suggest that the form of capital that investors value the most is sheer equity capital; other forms of capital, such as Tier 2 regulatory capital, are less (or not at all) valued by investors. Additionally, our main finding that capital has a negative effect on banks’ cost of equity holds in both developed and developing countries. The results of this paper provide the missing evidence in the debate on the effects of higher capital requirements on banks’ funding costs.
Keywords:
WP; bank capital; capital requirement; financial risk; capital measure; Cost of equity; Banking regulation; Financial stability; return on equity; bank capitalization; bank cost; capitalized bank; bank capital measure; funding cost; financial leverage decrease; risk profile; Stocks; Capital adequacy requirements; Stock markets; Return on investment; Loan loss provisions; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Capital Market Union for Europe
Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia
,
Ms. Srobona Mitra
,
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Luiza Antoun de Almeida
,
Cristina Cuervo
,
Mr. Andre O Santos
, and
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
This note weighs the merits of a capital market union (CMU) for Europe, identifies major obstacles in its path, and recommends a set of carefully targeted policy actions. European capital markets are relatively small, resulting in strong bank-dependence, and are split sharply along national lines. Results include an uneven playing field in terms of corporate funding costs, the rationing out of collateral-constrained firms, and limited shock absorption. The benefits of integration center on expanding financial choice, ultimately to support capital formation and resilience. Capital market development and integration would support a healthy diversity in European finance. Proceeding methodically, the note identifies three key barriers to greater capital market integration in Europe: transparency, regulatory quality, and insolvency practices. Based on these findings, the note urges three policy priorities, focused on the three barriers. There is no roadblock—such steps should prove feasible without a new grand bargain.
Keywords:
SDN; EU counterparty; EU capital market practitioner; euro area; EU capital market rule; EU treaty; EU venture capital funds; Capital market union; financial integration; bilateral portfolio flows; monetary union; investment firm; funding cost; growth performance; private equity; equity valuation; capital market market fragmentation; nonfinancial firm; company information; Capital markets; Securities; Stocks; Mutual funds; Solvency; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Hala Moussawi
,
Alexander F. Tieman
,
Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka
,
Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
, and
Mr. Paolo Mauro
We track direct public interventions and public holdings in 1,114 financial institutions over the period 2007–17 in 37 countries based on publicly available information. We use aggregate official data to validate this new dataset and estimate the fiscal impact of interventions, including the value of asset holdings remaining in state hands at end-2017. Direct public support to financial institutions amounted to $1.6 trillion ($3.5 trillion including guarantees), with larger amounts allocated to lower capitalized and less profitable banks. As of end-2017, only a few countries had fully divested the initial support they provided during the crisis. Public holdings were divested faster in better capitalized, more profitable, and more liquid banks, and in countries where the economy recovered faster. In countries where the government stake remained high relative to the initial intervention, private investment and credit growth were slower, financial access, depth, efficiency, and competition were worse, and financial stability improved less.
Keywords:
WP; bank characteristic; bank variable; country condition; return on assets; intervened bank; Financial crisis; Government interventions; Bank resolution; asset holding; asset quality; system assets; government intervention; asset purchase; cash flow; Stocks; Financial sector; Loans; Liquidity; State-owned banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Paul Henri Mathieu
,
Mr. Marco Pani
,
Shiyuan Chen
, and
Mr. Rodolfo Maino
Using data collected from pan-African banks’ (PABs), balance sheets and other sources (Orbis, Fitch), this study identifies some key patterns of cross-border investment in bank subsidiaries by key banking groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and discusses some of the determinants of this investment. Using a gravity model relating the annual value of a banking group’s investment in the net equity of its subsidiaries to a set of explanatory variables, the analysis finds that cross-border banking is in part driven by a search for yield, diversification, and expansion for strategic reasons.
Keywords:
WP; break; center; exchange rate; Cross-border banking flows; Bank leverage; Global banks; Group profitability; banking group variable; Group size; vis-à-vis intra-group; net equity; host country pair; bank subsidiary; pan-African banking groups; Exchange rates; Cross-border banking; Inflation; Stocks; Gravity models; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; West Africa; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Contingent Convertibles Help Private Asset Managers Fund Their Acquisition of Non-Performing Loans from Portuguese Banks?
Mr. Andre O Santos
This paper analyzes the capital structure of private asset managers in which the acquisition of nonperforming loans (NPLs) is funded with Contingent Convertibles (CoCos) placed with investors. The paper develops a model based on NPL transfer prices and residual recovery rates to assess capital structures consisting of CoCos and equity. The CoCos would contain put and call options to write down losses and write up profits, respectively, arising from liquidation and restructuring procedures. The paper concludes that the protection mechanism provided by debt write-downs embedded in CoCos and the incentives to investors provided by debt write-ups could help bridge the gap between Portuguese banks’ NPL bid prices and private equity firms’ ask prices.
Keywords:
WP; coupon rate; capital structure; book value; maturity date; Asset managers; contingent convertibles; asset pricing; nonperforming loans; recovery rate; NPL sale; debt write-up; portfolio acquisition; NPL securitization; Loans; Transfer pricing; Contingent convertible capital; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Household Wealth and Resilience to Financial Shocks in Italy
Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia
High household wealth is often cited as a key strength of the Italian economy. Both in absolute terms and relative to income, the Italian household sector is wealthier than most euro area peers. A sizable fraction of this wealth is held by the rich and upper middle classes. This paper documents the changes in the Italian household sector’s financial wealth over the past two decades, by constructing the matrix of bilateral financial sectoral exposures. Households became increasingly exposed to the financial sector, which in turn was exposed to the highly indebted real and government sectors. The paper then simulates different financial shocks to gauge the ability of the household sector to absorb losses. Simple illustrative calculations are presented for a fall in the value of government bonds as well as for bank bail-ins versus bailouts.
Keywords:
WP; bailout; bail-in; government bond; bond; financial linkages; flow of funds; balance sheet analysis; financial asset holding; sectoral financial asset exposure; flow-of-funds datum; bail-in case; non-financial corporates; MFI assets; equity impact; Stocks; Sovereign bonds; Income distribution; Creditor bail-in; Financial sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates
Qianying Chen
,
Mitsuru Katagiri
, and
Jay Surti
A prolonged low-interest-rate environment presents a significant challenge to banks and is likely to entail major changes to their business models over the long-run. Lower returns to maturity transformation in the face of flatter yield curves and an inability to offer deposit rates significantly below zero combine to compress bank earnings in this environment. Smaller, deposit-funded, less diversified banks are hurt most, increasing consolidation pressures and reach-for-yield incentives, presenting new financial stability challenges.To the extent that such an economic environment reflects a new, steady-state with lower equilibrium growth driven by population aging and slower productivity growth, lower credit demand is likely to drive banking toward provision of fee-based, utility services.
Keywords:
WP; rate of interest; economic growth; balance sheet; bond yield; business line; monetary policy; Banking; Growth; Interest Rates; Low-for-Long; Prolonged Low Interest Rates; bank characteristic; bank equity; adaptation strategy; transaction service; bank NIMs; bank leverage; bank profits; market rate; interest rate cut; bank business; interest rate shock; Deposit rates; Market interest rates; Zero lower bound; Stocks; Bank soundness; Global