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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Insolvency Prospects Among Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprises in Advanced Economies: Assessment and Policy Options
Mr. Federico J Diez
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Jiayue Fan
,
Jose M Garrido
,
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
,
Chiara Maggi
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
, and
Mr. Nicola Pierri
The COVID-19 pandemic has increased insolvency risks, especially among small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are vastly overrepresented in hard-hit sectors. Without government intervention, even firms that are viable a priori could end up being liquidated—particularly in sectors characterized by labor-intensive technologies, threatening both macroeconomic and social stability. This staff discussion note assesses the impact of the pandemic on SME insolvency risks and policy options to address them. It quantifies the impact of weaker aggregate demand, changes in sectoral consumption patterns, and lockdowns on firm balance sheets and estimates the impact of a range of policy options, for a large sample of SMEs in (mostly) advanced economies.
Keywords:
Insolvency; Bankruptcy; “Quasi” Equity Injections; Small- and medium-size enterprises; COVID-19; insolvent firm; cash position; equity injection; illiquid firm; firm exit; cash flow; Solvency; Small and medium enterprises; Stocks; Financial statements; Southern Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Stress Testing U.S. Leveraged Corporates in a COVID-19 World
Carlos Caceres
,
Dan Pan
, and
Suchanan Tambunlertchai
This paper analyzes a group of 755 firms, with aggregate indebtedness of US$6.2 trillion, to assess the solvency risks and liquidity needs facing the U.S. corporate sector based on projections of net income, availability and cost of funding, and debt servicing flows under different stress test scenarios. The paper finds that leveraged corporates account for most of the potential losses arising from the macroeconomic stresses associated with the COVID-19 crisis, with a concentration of these losses in the oil and gas, auto, and capital and durable goods manufacturing sectors. However, potential losses from corporate debt write-downs appear to be a fraction of banks’ capital buffers and, given the size of the leveraged segment and the relatively long duration of that sector’s debt, the near-term liquidity needs of these corporates appear modest. Corporate stresses could, however, amplify the current economic downturn—as firms cut investment spending and reduce employment—potentially giving rise to significant indirect losses for the financial system.
Keywords:
corporate; firm value; leverage; solvency; liquidity.; WP; cash inflow; equity position metrics; liquidity need; need Lt; net equity position; stress testing; liquidity; leverage ratio; revenue flow; revenue-to-assets ratio; rollover needs; amortization profile; maturing bond debt; maturing debt; Stocks; Corporate sector; Currencies; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy
Germán Gutiérrez
,
Callum Jones
, and
Mr. Thomas Philippon
We combine a structural model with cross-sectional micro data to identify the causes and consequences of rising concentration in the US economy. Using asset prices and industry data, we estimate realized and anticipated shocks that drive entry and concentration. We validate our approach by showing that the model-implied entry shocks correlate with independently constructed measures of entry regulations and M&As. We conclude that entry costs have risen in the U.S. over the past 20 years and have depressed capital and consumption by about seven percent.
Keywords:
WP; concentration ratio; fed funds rate; time series; Corporate Investment; Competition; Tobin’s Q; Zero Lower Bound; entry cost shock; monetary policy rule; cost shock; adjustment cost; firm entry; capital adjustment cost; nominal interest rate; exit rate; price choice; entry rate; Consumption; Corporate sector; Stocks; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis
Ms. Majdeline El Rayess
,
Avril Halstead
,
Jason Harris
,
Mr. John Ralyea
, and
Alexander F. Tieman
Public sector balance sheets (PSBS) provide a framework for comprehensive and deep analysis of fiscal risks and policies. To illustrate these benefits, this paper shows how PSBS analysis can be applied to assess risks to Indonesia’s public sector stemming from its public corporations. The paper also shows that the government’s plans to finance a ramp-up in public investment with additional tax revenue increases both economic growth and public wealth.
Keywords:
WP; asset; GDP; real GDP; investment; balance sheet; Public Sector Balance Sheet; Intertemporal Fiscal Balances; Public Investment; Indonesia.; asset revaluation; return on equity; public sector; baseline GDP; nonfinancial public corporation asset; cash flow; asset instrument; current ratio; Business enterprises; Financial statements; Public sector; Public investment spending; Stocks
Cover Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide (Third Edition)
Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide (Third Edition)
Venkat Josyula

Abstract

This third edition of the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide has been prepared to assist economies that participate or are preparing to participate in the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS). It builds on and updates the second edition of the CPIS Guide (2002) to reflect the adoption of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition (BPM6) as the standard framework for compiling cross-border position statistics.

Keywords:
M&G; portfolio investment data collection system; investment; CPIS data template; survey questionnaire; investment survey; CPIS metadata questionnaire; Securities; Portfolio investment; Stocks; Foreign direct investment; Bonds; Global; Caribbean; CPIS data; securities holding; portfolio investment liability; liability position; CPIS Task Force; portfolio investment securities; Business enterprises
Cover Guide de l'enquête coordonnée sur l'investissement direct, 2015
Guide de l'enquête coordonnée sur l'investissement direct, 2015
Miss Rita Mesias

Abstract

Le Guide de l'enquête coordonnée sur l'investissement direct (ECID) a été préparé pour aider les économies qui participent à cette enquête. L'enquête est menée sous les auspices du département des statistiques du FMI dans un large éventail de pays. Elle est organisée simultanément par tous les pays participants, recourt à des définitions cohérentes, et encourage les bonnes pratiques en matière de collecte, d'établissement et de diffusion de données sur les positions d'investissement direct. Elle constitue donc un outil important pour prendre la mesure des totaux mondiaux et de la répartition géographique des positions d'investissements directs et contribue ainsi à l'établissement de nouvelles conclusions importantes sur l'étendue de la mondialisation, ainsi qu'à l'amélioration de la qualité globale des données sur l'investissement direct dans le monde. Au moment de la rédaction de ce guide actualisé, plus de 100 pays participaient à l'enquête coordonnée.

Keywords:
M&G; background color; country currency
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Nonbank Sector Stability Analyses
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Ireland in the areas of nonbank sector stability. Both nonparametric and parametric methods suggest that the residential real estate market in Ireland is close to or moderately below its equilibrium level. Two standard metrics of price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios show that following a protracted period of overvaluation prior to the crisis and a correction afterward, the market has been close to its equilibrium level in recent quarters. Households have deleveraged, but are still highly indebted. The stability analysis results also suggest that vulnerabilities among nonfinancial firms have moderated in recent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; interest rate; banking sector; sensitivity analysis; investment funds; negative equity; interest rate shock; long-term debt; household financial assets; primary sector; CRE price; current ratio; Loans; Mortgages; Housing prices; Stocks; Corporate sector; Global; Europe; Markov regime; balance sheet composition of financial assets; Household indebtedness; loss forecasting; liabilities of household; real estate investment trust; evaluation of REE price; Tier 1
Cover Guía de la Encuesta Coordinada sobre la Inversión Directa 2015
Guía de la Encuesta Coordinada sobre la Inversión Directa 2015
Miss Rita Mesias

Abstract

Esta Guía ha sido elaborada para ayudar a las economías a participar en la Encuesta Coordinada sobre la Inversión Directa (ECID). La ECID, que se está llevando a cabo simultáneamente en todas las economías participantes, se basa en definiciones uniformes, e incentiva la adopción de prácticas óptimas para la recopilación, compilación y divulgación de datos sobre las posiciones de inversión directa. Por lo tanto, la ECID es una herramienta importante para cuantificar el total mundial de las posiciones de inversión directa y para representar su distribución geográfica, contribuyendo así a la formación de nuevas e importantes apreciaciones sobre el alcance de la globalización y al mejoramiento de la calidad general de los datos mundiales sobre inversión directa. Al momento de actualización de la Guía, más de 100 economías participaban en la ECID.

Keywords:
M&G; background color; country currency
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Financial Wealth of Corporations: A First Look at Sectoral Balance Sheet Data
Ms. Yuko Hashimoto
and
Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita
This paper analyzes the nonfinancial corporation (NFC) sector’s financial balance sheets using data available from the OECD. In our sample of 20 advanced economies, corporate debt in percent of GDP—a frequently used indicator in the context of corporate balance sheet adjustments—has remained high since the global financial crisis, with significant differences in the level and the trend between the high-debt and low-debt groups. Looking at financial balance sheets more broadly, including net financial wealth, the NFC sector’s balance sheet conditions have improved recently, particularly reflecting accumulation of corporate cash and valuation gains on financial assets. Longer time series and more granular data for Japan, which has been experiencing a prolonged period of balance sheet adjustments, indicate that a continued strengthening of balance sheets might occur even after debt levels are reduced.
Keywords:
WP; debt; economy; balance sheet adjustment; cash; balance sheet data; Nonfinancial corporation; financial balance sheet; net financial wealth; NFC sector; balance sheet condition; cash holding; financial asset accumulation; Financial statements; Currencies; Stocks; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Business enterprises; Global
Cover The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide 2015
The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide 2015
Miss Rita Mesias

Abstract

This Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide (Guide) has been prepared to assist economies in participating in the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). The CDIS is being conducted under the auspices of the Statistics Department of the IMF across a wide range of economies. The survey is conducted simultaneously by all participating economies; uses consistent definitions; and encourages best practices in collecting, compiling, and disseminating data on direct investment positions. The CDIS is thus an important tool in capturing world totals and the geographic distribution of direct investment positions, thereby contributing to important new understandings of the extent of globalization, and improving the overall quality of direct investment data worldwide. As of the writing of this updated Guide, more than 100 economies participate in the CDIS.

Keywords:
M&G; background color; country currency; reported data; Dem. rep.; enterprise B; McDonald island; Foreign direct investment; Securities; Stocks; Nonbank financial institutions; International investment position; Global; South America; Central America; East Asia; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Pacific Islands; position data; CDIS data; equity investment assets; investment fund share; Business enterprises