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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 63 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
A Proposal to Improve Country-Level Data on Total Factor Productivity Growth
Andrew M. Warner
The assumption behind popular data on national capital stocks, and therefore total factor productivity, is that countries were in a steady state in the first year that investment data became available. This paper argues that this assumption is highly implausible and is necessarily responsible for implausible data on the ratio of capital to output and productivity growth. It is not credible that countries with similar incomes had huge differences in their capital stocks. This paper claims, with evidence, that implausible features of the data can be greatly reduced by using data on electricity usage or national stocks of road vehicles.
Keywords:
Productivity; Total Factor Productivity; Economic Growth; capital output ratio; total factor productivity growth; capita-output ratio; investment data; TFP growth estimate; Capital productivity; Stocks; Capital adequacy requirements; Electricity; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Handle with Care: Regulatory Easing in Times of COVID-19
Mr. Fabian Valencia
,
Mr. Richard Varghese
,
Weijia Yao
, and
Juan Yepez
The policy response to the COVID-19 shock included regulatory easing across many jurisdictions to facilitate the flow of credit to the economy and mitigate a further ampli-fication of the shock through tighter financial conditions. Using an intraday event study,this paper examines how stock prices—a key driver in financial conditions—reacted to regulatory easing announcements in a sample of 18 advanced economies and 8 emerging markets. The paper finds that overall, regulatory easing announcements contributed to looser financial conditions, but effects varied across sectors and tools. Financial regulatory easing led to lower valuations for financial sector stocks, and higher valuations for non-financial sector stocks, particularly for industries that are more dependent on bank financing. Furthermore, valuations declined and financial conditions tightened following announcements related to easier bank capital regulation while equity valuation rose and financial conditions loosened after those about liquidity regulation. Effects from non-regulatory financial measures appear to be generally more muted.
Keywords:
Stock prices; policy announcements; financial conditions; capital; liquidity; COVID-19.; WP; liquidity regulation easing; regulation announcement; announcement dummy; equity price; market reaction
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investor Information and Bank Instability During the Euro Crisis
Silvia Iorgova
Outside of financial crises, investors have little incentive to produce private information on banks’ short-term liabilities held as information-insensitive safe assets. The same does not hold true during crises. We measure daily information production using data from credit default swap spreads during the global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis. We study abnormal information production around major events and interventions during these crises and find that, on average, capital injections reduced abnormal information production while early European stress tests increased it. We also link information production to outcomes: high levels of information production predict bank balance sheet contraction and higher government expenditures to support financial institutions. In an addendum, we show information production on nonfinancials dramatically increased relative to financials at the height of the COVID-19 crisis, reflecting the nonfinancial nature of the initial shock.
Keywords:
information production; safe asset; WP; reference securities; information-production ratio; banking system; debt crisis; rate of change; reference security model; unsecured debt
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
,
Mr. Nicola Pierri
, and
Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
The COVID-19 pandemic could result in large government interventions in the banking industry. To shed light on the possible consequences on market power, we rely on the experience of the global financial crisis and exploit granular data on government interventions in more than 800 banks across 27 countries between 2007 and 2017. For identification, we use a multivariate matching method. We find that intervened banks experience a significant decline in market power with respect to matched non-intervened banks. This effect is more pronounced for larger and longer interventions and is driven by a rise in costs—mostly because of higher loan impairment charges—which is not followed by a similar increase in prices.
Keywords:
Banks; Government intervention; Market power; Lerner index; WP; intervened bank; bank market power; TARP-recipient bank; intervention characteristic; A. measuring market power; Bank resolution; Loans; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Nonperforming loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Stress Testing U.S. Leveraged Corporates in a COVID-19 World
Carlos Caceres
,
Dan Pan
, and
Suchanan Tambunlertchai
This paper analyzes a group of 755 firms, with aggregate indebtedness of US$6.2 trillion, to assess the solvency risks and liquidity needs facing the U.S. corporate sector based on projections of net income, availability and cost of funding, and debt servicing flows under different stress test scenarios. The paper finds that leveraged corporates account for most of the potential losses arising from the macroeconomic stresses associated with the COVID-19 crisis, with a concentration of these losses in the oil and gas, auto, and capital and durable goods manufacturing sectors. However, potential losses from corporate debt write-downs appear to be a fraction of banks’ capital buffers and, given the size of the leveraged segment and the relatively long duration of that sector’s debt, the near-term liquidity needs of these corporates appear modest. Corporate stresses could, however, amplify the current economic downturn—as firms cut investment spending and reduce employment—potentially giving rise to significant indirect losses for the financial system.
Keywords:
corporate; firm value; leverage; solvency; liquidity.; WP; cash inflow; equity position metrics; liquidity need; need Lt; net equity position; stress testing; liquidity; leverage ratio; revenue flow; revenue-to-assets ratio; rollover needs; amortization profile; maturing bond debt; maturing debt; Stocks; Corporate sector; Currencies; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top-Down Stress Testing Perspective
Mr. Marco Gross
,
Mindaugas Leika
, and
Pavel Lukyantsau
The objective of this paper is to present an integrated tool suite for IFRS 9- and CECL-compatible estimation in top-down solvency stress tests. The tool suite serves as an illustration for institutions wishing to include accounting-based approaches for credit risk modeling in top-down stress tests. The tool suite is made available online along with this paper.
Keywords:
WP; transition matrix; financial asset; balance sheet; accounting regime; interest rate; provision stock; bank portfolio model; modeling choice; bank-portfolio level; Lt-ECL ratio; provision flow; International Financial Reporting Standards; Stress testing; Stocks; Loans; Loan loss provisions; Global; Credit risk; IFRS 9; CECL; lifetime probability of default; LGD modeling; Distressed assets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
and
Aneta Radzikowski
Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.
Keywords:
WP; iPhone; Apple; iPhone sale; trade; global supply chains; global trade; tech cycle; smartphone sale; ICT-enabled services; services export; PC sales; ICT services; Apple cash; Mobile internet; Service exports; Stocks; Exports; Global; merchandise export; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative-Decision Point Document
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents an assessment of Somalia’s eligibility for assistance under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The macroeconomic framework reflects the policy framework underlying the proposed three-year Fund-supported program. The debt relief analysis (DRA) remains largely unchanged, but some of the underlying debt data has been updated to reflect new information from creditors. In addition, this paper presents an assessment of debt management capacity in Somalia and a full Debt Sustainability Analysis under the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries. The DRA reveals that, after traditional debt relief mechanisms are applied, Somalia’s debt burden expressed as the net present value of debt-to-exports ratio is 344.2 percent at the end of December 2018—significantly above the HIPC Initiative threshold. Despite the challenging environment, progress on reform and policy implementation has been good and sustained reforms have translated into economic results. In addition to the coordinated support from the World Bank and the IMF, reforms have been supported by other development partners.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; Somalia; government; MDRI debt relief from IDA; HIPC debt relief analysis; HIPC Completion point; IMF in Washington; HIPC decision point; arrears clearance; burden indicator; Debt relief; Arrears; Debt service
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Capital and the Cost of Equity
Mohamed Belkhir
,
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
, and
Anis Semet
Using a sample of publicly listed banks from 62 countries over the 1991-2017 period, we investigate the impact of capital on banks’ cost of equity. Consistent with the theoretical prediction that more equity in the capital mix leads to a fall in firms’ costs of equity, we find that better capitalized banks enjoy lower equity costs. Our baseline estimations indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in a bank’s equity-to-assets ratio lowers its cost of equity by about 18 basis points. Our results also suggest that the form of capital that investors value the most is sheer equity capital; other forms of capital, such as Tier 2 regulatory capital, are less (or not at all) valued by investors. Additionally, our main finding that capital has a negative effect on banks’ cost of equity holds in both developed and developing countries. The results of this paper provide the missing evidence in the debate on the effects of higher capital requirements on banks’ funding costs.
Keywords:
WP; bank capital; capital requirement; financial risk; capital measure; Cost of equity; Banking regulation; Financial stability; return on equity; bank capitalization; bank cost; capitalized bank; bank capital measure; funding cost; financial leverage decrease; risk profile; Stocks; Capital adequacy requirements; Stock markets; Return on investment; Loan loss provisions; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Insurance Stress Testing
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Insurance Stress Testing
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; investment; sovereign bond; capital; holding; bond investment; sovereign bond exposure; coverage ratio; investment holding; investment yield; low-yield environment; Insurance companies; Stress testing; Sovereign bonds; Insurance; Stocks; Global