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Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well as market instruments. Each layer is calibrated to cover estimated fiscal cost of NDs according to intensity and expected damage. The results indicate that ECCU countries could target saving fund stocks for relativelly smaller and more frequent events in the range of 6-12 percent of GDP, enough to cover 95 percent of NDs’ fiscal costs. To ensure financially-sustainable saving funds with a low probability of depletion, this requires annual budget savings in the range os 0.5 to 1.9 percent of GDP per year. Additional coverage could be obtained with market instruments for large and less frequent events, albeit at a significant cost.The results are based on a Monte-Carlo experiment that simulates natural disaster shocks and their impact on output and government finances.
Sheheryar Malik
and
Ms. TengTeng Xu
Interconnectedness among global systemically important banks (GSIBs) and global systemically important insurers (GSIIs) has important financial stability implications. This paper examines connectedness among United States, European and Asian GSIBs and GSIIs, using publicly-available daily equity returns and intra-day volatility data from October 2007 to August 2016. Results reveal strong regional clusters of return and volatility connectedness amongst GSIBs and GSIIs. Compared to Asia, selected GSIBs and GSIIs headquartered in the United States and Europe appear to be main sources of market-based connectedness. Total system connectedness—i.e., among all GSIBs and GSIIs—tends to rise during financial stress, which is corroborated by a balance sheet oriented systemic risk measure. Lastly, the paper demonstrates significant influence of economic policy uncertainty and U.S. long-term interest rates on total connectedness among systemically important institutions, and the important role of bank profitability and asset quality in driving bank-specific return connectedness.
International Monetary Fund
This technical note for the Republic of Poland on competition and performance explains the Polish pension system and domestic capital market. Competition policies may need to be reviewed, in particular the combination of measures to maintain small pension funds operating while imposing strict caps on fees. If the government decides to continue pursuing policy of promoting competition in returns while reducing fees further, it may need to consider more structural changes in the second pillar, along the lines of the Swedish model.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

This paper focuses on risk transfer and discusses the insurance sector, particularly life insurers. It expands on issues raised in previous Global Financial Stability Reports by asking whether financial stability has benefited or could benefit from insurers’ broader participation in credit markets, including credit derivatives. The paper assesses the impact on financial stability of life insurers’ investment behavior and risk management in the largest mature markets. It highlights that the policy implications differ from market to market, and may offer useful lessons to emerging market countries with developing capital markets.

International Monetary Fund
The Japanese financial sector remains weak notwithstanding a series of policy measures. The Financial System Stability Assessment assesses Japan's financial stability and structural changes in the deflationary, banking sector, life insurance, corporate sector, and the supervisory, transparency, and market integrity framework. It analyzes the macroeconomic development, policies, and financial system, and assesses the operations of government financial institutions and household sectors. It also reviews the assessment of the Basel core principle for effective banking supervision on the basis of the core principles methodology.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

This June 2002 issue of the Global Financial Stability Report analyzes developments and issues in world markets. The report highlights that the economic recovery that began during the first quarter of 2002 has brought improvements in financial market conditions. Mature equity and bond markets have further stabilized. Most emerging market countries continue to have access to international capital markets, and their bond spreads have declined. The near-term outlook thus appears largely free of imminent threats to the global financial stability.

Mr. Alberto M. Ramos
This paper constructs a theoretical framework that rationalizes banks’ short- and long-run adjustment dynamics—in portfolio composition and in the capital structure—following a period of financial distress. The model captures stylized facts about banks’ behavior following a shock to the capital base—namely, the rush to liquidity and credit crunch. Bank panel data show that Argentine domestic retail banks underwent a period of adjustment of six quarters following the Mexican devaluation crisis, reducing their risk-exposure since, owing to bank capital scarcity, depositors became less prone to tolerate bank default risk. Foreign-owned banks suffered a milder shock and adjusted immediately.