Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 52 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission
Alessia De Stefani
and
Rui Mano
We study the two-way relationship between fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and monetary policy in a panel of up to 35 countries over the last two decades. The dataset includes quarterly information on the composition of mortgage flows and stock by type of rate-fixation and monetary policy shocks cleaned of information effects. Using instrumental-variablel local projections, we find both path- and state-dependency in monetary transmission. Monetary policy shapes mortgage choice, increasing (decreasing) the share of FRMs during easing (tightening) cycles. Over time, this mechanism alters the composition of the outstanding mortgage stock which, in turn, affects the central bank's ability to stabilize the economy ex-post. A greater (lower) prevalence of FRMs weakens (strengthens) monetary policy transmission to key macro-variables.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Mortgage Markets; monetary policy shock; monetary policy transmission; mortgage choice; prevalence of FRMs; ARM rate; Mortgages; Central bank policy rate; Stocks; Housing prices; Private consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets
Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.
Keywords:
monetary policy cyclicality; stock return-inflation relation; countercyclical monetary policy; market perception; inflation targeting country; Inflation; Stocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Inflation targeting; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Elasticity Estimates for Capital Stocks in Canada
Jean-François Wen
,
Fatih Yilmaz
, and
Danea Trejo
The paper provides estimates of the long-run, tax-adjusted, user cost elasticity of capital (UCE) in a small open economy, exploiting three sources of variation in Canadian tax policy: across provinces, industries, and years. Estimates of the UCE with Canadian data are less prone to the endogeneity problems arising from the effects of tax policy changes on the interest rate or on the price of capital equipment. Reductions in the federal corporate income tax rate during the early 2000s for service industries but not for manufacturing, which already benefited from a preferential tax rate, contribute to the identification of the UCE. To capture the long-run relationship between the capital stock and the user cost of capital, an error correction model (ECM) is estimated. Supplementary results are obtained from a distributed lag model in first differences (DLM). With the ECM, our baseline UCE for machinery and equipment (M&E) is -1.312. The corresponding semi-elasticity of the stock of M&E with respect to the METR is about -0.2, suggesting, for example, that a 5 percentage point reduction in the METR, say from 15 to 10 percent, would in the long run generate an increase of 1.0 percent in the stock of M&E. The UCE for non-residential construction is statistically insignificantly different from zero.
Keywords:
WP; cost of capital; open economy; user cost of capital; rate of return; UCE estimate; investment tax credit; depreciation rate; Metr data; elasticities decrease; provincial sales tax; differenced GDP terms; machinery and equipment; Marginal effective tax rate; Stocks; Corporate income tax; Real interest rates; Tax allowances; Global; Capital Taxation; User Cost of Capital Elasticity
Cover IMF Working Papers
Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy
Germán Gutiérrez
,
Callum Jones
, and
Mr. Thomas Philippon
We combine a structural model with cross-sectional micro data to identify the causes and consequences of rising concentration in the US economy. Using asset prices and industry data, we estimate realized and anticipated shocks that drive entry and concentration. We validate our approach by showing that the model-implied entry shocks correlate with independently constructed measures of entry regulations and M&As. We conclude that entry costs have risen in the U.S. over the past 20 years and have depressed capital and consumption by about seven percent.
Keywords:
WP; concentration ratio; fed funds rate; time series; Corporate Investment; Competition; Tobin’s Q; Zero Lower Bound; entry cost shock; monetary policy rule; cost shock; adjustment cost; firm entry; capital adjustment cost; nominal interest rate; exit rate; price choice; entry rate; Consumption; Corporate sector; Stocks; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective
Michal Andrle
This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings and long-term Treasury note yields, sourced from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The appraised value of corporate earnings can point in real time at periods where market prices are deviating from valuations implied by expected earnings and interest rates. Market participants' forecasts seem to interpret most of the earnings fluctuations as permanent, underestimating the cyclical fluctuations The over-reaction to transitory shocks and changes in long-term outlook leads to swings in the valuation, in line with swings in the observed market prices.
Keywords:
WP; earnings; risk premium; interest rate; present value; asset prices; corporate earnings; growth expectation; equity risk premium; profit growth; value investor; rate of return; earnings outlook; period-by-period earnings; present-value computation; Wages; Return on investment; Stocks; Long term interest rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Destination-Based Allowance for Corporate Equity
Mr. Shafik Hebous
and
Mr. Alexander D Klemm
Following renewed academic and policy interest in the destination-based principle for taxing profits—particularly through a destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT)—this paper studies other forms of efficient destination-based taxes. Specifically, it analyzes the Destination-Based Allowance for Corporate Equity (DBACE) and Allowance for Corporate Capital (DBACC). It describes adjustments that are required to turn an origin into a destination-based versions of these taxes. These include adjustments to capital and equity, which are additional to the border adjustments needed under a DBCFT. The paper finds that the DBACC and DBACE reduce profit shifting and tax competition, but cannot fully eliminate them, with the DBACE more sensitve than the DBACC. Overall, given the potential major political cost of switching from an origin to a destination-based tax system, we conclude that advantages of the DBCFT are likely to outweigh the transitional advantages of the DBACE/DBACC.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; capital stock; Destination-Based Taxation; ACE; ACC; investment goods; notional interest rate; tax competition; interest receipt; competition policy tool; rate of return; border tax; depreciation rate; upfront tax cost; tax saving; Allowance for corporate equity; Value-added tax; Stocks; Discount rates; Corporate income tax; Global; Destination-based allowance; copyright Page; B. profit shifting; based allowance; E. exchange rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates
Qianying Chen
,
Mitsuru Katagiri
, and
Jay Surti
A prolonged low-interest-rate environment presents a significant challenge to banks and is likely to entail major changes to their business models over the long-run. Lower returns to maturity transformation in the face of flatter yield curves and an inability to offer deposit rates significantly below zero combine to compress bank earnings in this environment. Smaller, deposit-funded, less diversified banks are hurt most, increasing consolidation pressures and reach-for-yield incentives, presenting new financial stability challenges.To the extent that such an economic environment reflects a new, steady-state with lower equilibrium growth driven by population aging and slower productivity growth, lower credit demand is likely to drive banking toward provision of fee-based, utility services.
Keywords:
WP; rate of interest; economic growth; balance sheet; bond yield; business line; monetary policy; Banking; Growth; Interest Rates; Low-for-Long; Prolonged Low Interest Rates; bank characteristic; bank equity; adaptation strategy; transaction service; bank NIMs; bank leverage; bank profits; market rate; interest rate cut; bank business; interest rate shock; Deposit rates; Market interest rates; Zero lower bound; Stocks; Bank soundness; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Wave of ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policies: Domestic Impact and Spillovers
Mr. Richard Varghese
and
Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
ECB President Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech in August 2014 arguably marked a new phase of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) in the euro area. This paper examines the market impact and tranmission channels of this new wave of UMPs using a modified event study framework. They are found to have a more prominent impact on inflation expectations and exchange rates compared to the earlier UMP announcements. The impact on bank equity, however, is less significant in part due to narrowing profit margin in a low interest rate environment; and the marginal effect on sovereign spread compression has diminished. By extracting components of monetary policy shocks from the yield curve, we find that the traditional signaling channel of the monetary policy transmission continued to play an important role, but the portfolio rebalancing channel became more important in the new phase. Spillovers to non-euro area EU countries (the Czech Republic, Denmark, Poland, and Sweden) are transmitted mainly through the portfolio rebalancing channel, largely affecting sovereign yields and exchange rates.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; market; factor; market factor; Yield Curve; Quantitative Easing; Event Study; QE announcement; signal factor; monetary policy surprise; monetary policy announcement; inflation expectation; bank equity; Bond yields; Unconventional monetary policies; Sovereign bonds; Stocks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery
Mr. Ivo Krznar
and
Mr. Troy D Matheson
While Brazil’s deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.
Keywords:
WP; financing investment; Investment; Recession; policy uncertainty; drive investment decision; growth expectation; investment growth; investment equation; cash flow ratio; Terms of trade; Gross fixed investment; Real interest rates; Labor costs; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Sector Debt Bias
Ms. Oana Luca
and
Alexander F. Tieman
Most tax systems create a tax bias toward debt finance. Such debt bias increases leverage and may negatively affect financial stability. This paper models and estimates debt bias in the financial sector, and present novel estimates for investment banks and non-bank financial intermediaries such as finance and insurance companies. We find debt bias to be pervasive, explaining as much as 10 percent of total leverage for regular banks and 20 percent for investment banks, with the effects most pronounced before the global financial crisis. Going forward, debt bias is likely to once again gain prominence as a key driver of leverage decisions, underscoring the importance of policy reform at this juncture.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; interest rate; Oil prices; equity prices; dividends; economic growth; oil supply; global oil markets; international business cycle.; equity price; standard error band; term interest rate; price relationship; price fall; oil price shock; oil price coefficient; Oil; Oil production; Stocks; Long term interest rates; Global