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Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
The use of cash for payments is not well measured. We view the value of cash withdrawn from ATMs, or as a share of all payments, as a more accurate and timely measure of cash use compared to the standard measure of currency in circulation, or as a ratio to GDP. These two measures are compared for 14 advanced and emerging market economies. When aggregated, the trend in cash use for payments is currently falling for half the world’s population. Such a measure can help inform policy decisions regarding CBDC and regulatory decisions concerning access to and use of cash.
Mr. Johannes Wiegand
In the early 1870s, the global monetary system transitioned from bimetallism—a regime in which gold and silver currencies were tied at quasi-fixed exhange ratios—to the gold standard that was characterized by the use of (only) gold as the main currency metal by the largest and most advanced economies. The transition ocurred against the backdrop of both large supply shifts in global bullion markets in the 1850s and 60s and momentous political events, such as the Franco-Prussian war of 1870/71 and the subsequent foundation of the German empire. The causes for the transition have long been a matter of intense debate. This article discusses three separate but interrelated issues: (i) assessing the robustness of the pre-1870 bimetallic system to shocks—which includes a discussion of the appropriate use of Flandreau’s (1996) reference model; (ii) analyzing the transition from bimetallism to gold as a multi-stage currency game played by France and Germany; and (iii) evaluating the monetary debates at the German Handelstag conferences in the 1860s, to present a more complete narrative of the German discussion in the run-up to the transition.
Carlos Caceres
,
Dan Pan
, and
Suchanan Tambunlertchai
This paper analyzes a group of 755 firms, with aggregate indebtedness of US$6.2 trillion, to assess the solvency risks and liquidity needs facing the U.S. corporate sector based on projections of net income, availability and cost of funding, and debt servicing flows under different stress test scenarios. The paper finds that leveraged corporates account for most of the potential losses arising from the macroeconomic stresses associated with the COVID-19 crisis, with a concentration of these losses in the oil and gas, auto, and capital and durable goods manufacturing sectors. However, potential losses from corporate debt write-downs appear to be a fraction of banks’ capital buffers and, given the size of the leveraged segment and the relatively long duration of that sector’s debt, the near-term liquidity needs of these corporates appear modest. Corporate stresses could, however, amplify the current economic downturn—as firms cut investment spending and reduce employment—potentially giving rise to significant indirect losses for the financial system.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities of the Republic of Belarus in response to their request for technical assistance. The principal purposes of the mission were to review with the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (Belstat) current data sources; identify data sources that needed to be improved; demonstrate how to construct the tables; and prepare a work plan. The mission noted a few instances where the data could be improved through the provision of more detail or verification that the classification had been done correctly. The mission worked with Belstat staff to show how the currently available data sources should be used to compile sector balance sheets and how to use these data to construct the sector financial accounts. The mission recommended that Belstat prepare the financial balance sheets (FABS) for 2017 using the data presently available. The mission recommended that Belstat staff be encouraged to apply for courses on the FABS, such as those offered by the IMF.
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We analyze what happens if central banks mistakenly diagnose the problem as insufficient demand, when it is actually a supply problem. We do this in a real model, in which inflation is not an issue. We show that aggressive central bank action may revive gross investment, but it will not revive net investment or growth. Moreover, low interest rates will lead to an increase in the capital output ratio, a low return on capital and high leverage. We show that these forecasts are in line with what has happened in major advanced countries.
Volker Grossman
and
Thomas Steger
There are, by now, several long term, time series data sets on important housing & macro variables, such as land prices, house prices, and the housing wealth-to-income ratio. However, an appropriate theory that can be employed to think about such data and associated research questions has been lacking. We present a new housing & macro model that is designed specifically to analyze the long term. As an illustrative application, we demonstrate that the calibrated model replicates, with remarkable accuracy, the historical evolution of housing wealth (relative to income) after World War II and suggests a further considerable increase in the future. The model also accounts for the close connection of house prices to land prices in the data. We also compare our framework to the canonical housing & macro model, typically employed to analyze business cycles, and highlight the main differences.
Ms. Yuko Hashimoto
and
Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita
This paper analyzes the nonfinancial corporation (NFC) sector’s financial balance sheets using data available from the OECD. In our sample of 20 advanced economies, corporate debt in percent of GDP—a frequently used indicator in the context of corporate balance sheet adjustments—has remained high since the global financial crisis, with significant differences in the level and the trend between the high-debt and low-debt groups. Looking at financial balance sheets more broadly, including net financial wealth, the NFC sector’s balance sheet conditions have improved recently, particularly reflecting accumulation of corporate cash and valuation gains on financial assets. Longer time series and more granular data for Japan, which has been experiencing a prolonged period of balance sheet adjustments, indicate that a continued strengthening of balance sheets might occur even after debt levels are reduced.
Mr. Luis Brandao Marques
,
Mr. R. G Gelos
,
Hibiki Ichiue
, and
Ms. Hiroko Oura
An analysis of mutual-fund-level flow data into EM bond and equity markets confirms that different types of funds behave differently. Bond funds are more sensitive to global factors and engage more in return chasing than equity funds. Flows from retail, open-end, and offshore funds are more volatile. Global funds are more stable in their EM investments than “dedicated” EM funds. Differences in the stability of flows from ultimate investors play a key role in explaining these patterns. The changing mix of global investors over the past 15 year has probably made portfolio flows to EMs more sensitive to global financial conditions.
Bank of International Settlements
,
European Central Bank
, and
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The production of the Handbook on Securities Statistics (the Handbook) is a joint undertaking by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They have specific interests and expertise in the area of securities statistics and are the core members of the Working Group on Securities Databases (WGSD). In 2007, the WGSD—originally established by the IMF in 1999—was reconvened in response to various international initiatives and recommendations to improve information on securities markets. The WGSD is chaired by the ECB and includes the BIS, the IMF and the World Bank. Selected experts from national central banks, who participated actively in the various international groups that identified the need to improve data on securities markets, were also invited to contribute to some of the WGSD’s deliberations. In mid-2008, the WGSD agreed to sponsor the development of a handbook on securities statistics. In November 2009, the report entitled “The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps”, which was prepared by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Secretariat and IMF staff at the request of the Group of Twenty (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors, endorsed the development of the Handbook, as well as the gradual implementation of improved statistics on issuance and holdings of securities at the national and international level. The BIS’s compilation of data on debt securities plays an important role in this respect. The Handbook sponsors responded to the demand from various international groups for the development of methodological standards for securities statistics and released the Handbook in three parts. Part 1 on debt securities issues was published in May 2009, and Part 2 on debt securities holdings in September 2010. Part 3 of the Handbook on equity securities statistics was published in November 2012. The methodology described in all three parts was based on the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) and the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The three parts also went slightly beyond the confines of these standards by providing guidance and additional information on, for example, the main features of securities, special and borderline cases, and breakdowns of issues and holdings of securities by counterparty. Special attention was also paid to specific operations such as mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, privatization and nationalization, and transactions between general government and public corporations. From the beginning, the intention was to combine the three parts into one volume, thereby eliminating any overlap and repetitions between the parts. The Handbook’s conceptual framework is complemented by a set of tables for presenting securities data both at an aggregated level and broken down by various features. This should allow sufficient flexibility in the presentation of data on issuance and holdings of securities, in line with developments in securities markets and financing. The Handbook is the first publication of its kind to focus exclusively on securities statistics. Recent turmoil in global financial markets has confirmed the importance of timely, relevant, coherent, and internationally comparable data on securities, from the perspective of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and financial stability analysis. This Handbook provides a conceptual framework for the compilation and presentation of statistics on different types.

Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu
,
Pelin Berkmen
,
Pavel Lukyantsau
,
Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs
, and
Hanni Schoelermann
Investment across the euro area remains below its pre-crisis level. Its performance has been weaker than in most previous recessions and financial crises. This paper shows that a part of this weakness can be explained by output dynamics, particularly before the European sovereign debt crisis. The rest is explained by a high cost of capital, financial constraints, corporate leverage, and uncertainty. There is a considerable cross country heterogeneity in terms of both investment dymanics and its determinants. Based on the findings of this paper, investment is expected to pick up as the recovery strengthens and uncertainty declines, but persistent financial fragmentation and high corporate leverage in some countries will likely continue to weigh on investment.