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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications x
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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Capital Market Union for Europe
Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia
,
Ms. Srobona Mitra
,
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Luiza Antoun de Almeida
,
Cristina Cuervo
,
Mr. Andre O Santos
, and
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
This note weighs the merits of a capital market union (CMU) for Europe, identifies major obstacles in its path, and recommends a set of carefully targeted policy actions. European capital markets are relatively small, resulting in strong bank-dependence, and are split sharply along national lines. Results include an uneven playing field in terms of corporate funding costs, the rationing out of collateral-constrained firms, and limited shock absorption. The benefits of integration center on expanding financial choice, ultimately to support capital formation and resilience. Capital market development and integration would support a healthy diversity in European finance. Proceeding methodically, the note identifies three key barriers to greater capital market integration in Europe: transparency, regulatory quality, and insolvency practices. Based on these findings, the note urges three policy priorities, focused on the three barriers. There is no roadblock—such steps should prove feasible without a new grand bargain.
Keywords:
SDN; EU counterparty; EU capital market practitioner; euro area; EU capital market rule; EU treaty; EU venture capital funds; Capital market union; financial integration; bilateral portfolio flows; monetary union; investment firm; funding cost; growth performance; private equity; equity valuation; capital market market fragmentation; nonfinancial firm; company information; Capital markets; Securities; Stocks; Mutual funds; Solvency; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Operating Time and total Factor Productivity Growth in France
Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone
and
Mr. Luc Everaert
Data on the weekly operating time of capital improve the measurement of effective capital input in production. The production function of the French business sector is found to be consistent with a Cobb-Douglas technology under constant returns to scale. Total factor productivity growth, estimated as an unobservable variable, has declined steadily since the late 1970s, but more slowly since 1994. During the 1990s, a secular increase in shift work raised the operating time of capital and began to contribute positively to growth, albeit only slightly.
Keywords:
WP; Capital stock utilization; total factor productivity; labor organization; TFP growth; Cobb-Douglas production function; business sector; capital service; output elasticity; A. production function specification; Productivity; Capacity utilization; Stocks
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?
Mr. Robin Brooks
This paper explores whether changes in the age distribution have significant effects on financial markets that are rational and forward-looking. It presents an overlapping generations model in which agents make a portfolio decision over stocks and bonds when saving for retirement- Using the model to simulate a baby boom-baby bust demonstrates that returns to baby boomers will be substantially below returns to earlier generations, even when markets are rational and forward-looking. This result is important because the current debate over how to reform pay-as-you-go pension systems often takes historical returns on financial assets—and on the equity premium—as given.
Keywords:
WP; descriptive statistics; expected return; equity premium; population aging; pension reform; riskless asset; asset market effect; bond return fall; asset market implication; return differential; algorithm proceeds; Consumption; Retirement; Income; Stocks; Securities markets; Africa; Asia and Pacific; baby boom-baby bust; bond holding; wage income; Consumption-Saving model; Wages