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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 73 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission
Alessia De Stefani
and
Rui Mano
We study the two-way relationship between fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and monetary policy in a panel of up to 35 countries over the last two decades. The dataset includes quarterly information on the composition of mortgage flows and stock by type of rate-fixation and monetary policy shocks cleaned of information effects. Using instrumental-variablel local projections, we find both path- and state-dependency in monetary transmission. Monetary policy shapes mortgage choice, increasing (decreasing) the share of FRMs during easing (tightening) cycles. Over time, this mechanism alters the composition of the outstanding mortgage stock which, in turn, affects the central bank's ability to stabilize the economy ex-post. A greater (lower) prevalence of FRMs weakens (strengthens) monetary policy transmission to key macro-variables.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Mortgage Markets; monetary policy shock; monetary policy transmission; mortgage choice; prevalence of FRMs; ARM rate; Mortgages; Central bank policy rate; Stocks; Housing prices; Private consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mitigating Climate Change at the Firm Level: Mind the Laggards
Damien Capelle
,
Divya Kirti
,
Nicola Pierri
, and
German Villegas Bauer
Using self-reported data on emissions for a global sample of 4,000 large, listed firms, we document large heterogeneity in environmental performance within the same industry and country. Laggards—firms with high emissions relative to the scale of their operations—are larger, operate older physical capital stocks, are less knowledge intensive and productive, and adopt worse management practices. To rationalize these findings, we build a novel general equilibrium heterogeneous-firm model in which firms choose capital vintages and R&D expenditure and hence emissions. The model matches the full empirical distribution of firm-level heterogeneity among other moments. Our counter-factual analysis shows that this heterogeneity matters for assessing the macroeconomic costs of mitigation policies, the channels through which policies act, and their distributional effects. We also quantify the gains from technology transfers to EMDEs.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Productivity; Technology Adoption; Capital Vintages; Emissions; R&D expenditure; capital vintage; management practice; emission intensity; emission Intensity; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Consumption; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration
Mr. Alejandro Izquierdo
,
Mr. Ruy Lama
,
Juan Pablo Medina
,
Jorge Puig
,
Daniel Riera-Crichton
,
Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont
, and
Guillermo Javier Vuletin
Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers should be higher (lower) the lower (higher) is the initial stock of public capital has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested. This paper tackles this empirical challenge and finds robust evidence in favor of the above hypothesis: countries with a low initial stock of public capital (as a proportion of GDP) have significantly higher public investment multipliers than countries with a high initial stock of public capital. This key finding seems robust to the sample (European countries, U.S. states, and Argentine provinces) and to the identification method (Blanchard-Perotti, forecast errors, and instrumental variables). Our results thus suggest that public investment in developing countries would carry high returns.
Keywords:
WP; investment multiplier; Fiscal multiplier; Public investment; Stock of public capital; Crowding-in; multiplier estimate; public investment multiplier; multiplier calculation; government spending multiplier; Public investment spending; Stocks; Government consumption; Private investment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy
Germán Gutiérrez
,
Callum Jones
, and
Mr. Thomas Philippon
We combine a structural model with cross-sectional micro data to identify the causes and consequences of rising concentration in the US economy. Using asset prices and industry data, we estimate realized and anticipated shocks that drive entry and concentration. We validate our approach by showing that the model-implied entry shocks correlate with independently constructed measures of entry regulations and M&As. We conclude that entry costs have risen in the U.S. over the past 20 years and have depressed capital and consumption by about seven percent.
Keywords:
WP; concentration ratio; fed funds rate; time series; Corporate Investment; Competition; Tobin’s Q; Zero Lower Bound; entry cost shock; monetary policy rule; cost shock; adjustment cost; firm entry; capital adjustment cost; nominal interest rate; exit rate; price choice; entry rate; Consumption; Corporate sector; Stocks; Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Capital Market Union for Europe
Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia
,
Ms. Srobona Mitra
,
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Luiza Antoun de Almeida
,
Cristina Cuervo
,
Mr. Andre O Santos
, and
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
This note weighs the merits of a capital market union (CMU) for Europe, identifies major obstacles in its path, and recommends a set of carefully targeted policy actions. European capital markets are relatively small, resulting in strong bank-dependence, and are split sharply along national lines. Results include an uneven playing field in terms of corporate funding costs, the rationing out of collateral-constrained firms, and limited shock absorption. The benefits of integration center on expanding financial choice, ultimately to support capital formation and resilience. Capital market development and integration would support a healthy diversity in European finance. Proceeding methodically, the note identifies three key barriers to greater capital market integration in Europe: transparency, regulatory quality, and insolvency practices. Based on these findings, the note urges three policy priorities, focused on the three barriers. There is no roadblock—such steps should prove feasible without a new grand bargain.
Keywords:
SDN; EU counterparty; EU capital market practitioner; euro area; EU capital market rule; EU treaty; EU venture capital funds; Capital market union; financial integration; bilateral portfolio flows; monetary union; investment firm; funding cost; growth performance; private equity; equity valuation; capital market market fragmentation; nonfinancial firm; company information; Capital markets; Securities; Stocks; Mutual funds; Solvency; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
and
Ling Zhu
We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece—the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)—is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these goals need to be more prudent and better anchored than the PIH. Second, we point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the appropriate fiscal anchors, the vice of procyclicality, and the (im)possibility of simultaneously smoothing consumption and ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability. Finally, we propose what we call a prudent wealth stabilization policy that would be more consistent with long-term fiscal policy goals, yet relatively simple to implement and communicate.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; physical capital; government spending; Fiscal policy; oil exporters; permanent income hypothesis; fiscal rules; wealth stabilization; target path; oil price shock; spending policy; PIH expenditure benchmark; oil wealth; wealth target; subsoil wealth; level of wealth; PIH Policy; wealth dynamics; targeted wealth; Consumption; Oil prices; Stocks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Optimal Control of a Global Model of Climate Change with Adaptation and Mitigation
Manoj Atolia
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Helmut Maurer
, and
Willi Semmler
The Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) has extensively treated the adverse effects of climate change and the appropriate mitigation policy. We extend such a model to include optimal policies for mitigation, adaptation and infrastructure investment studying the dynamics of the transition to a low fossil-fuel economy. We focus on the adverse effects of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on households. Formally, the model gives rise to an optimal control problem of finite horizon consisting of a dynamic system with five-dimensional state vector consisting of stocks of private capital, green capital, public capital, stock of brown energy in the ground, and emissions. Given the numerous challenges to climate change policies the control vector is also five-dimensional. Our solutions are characterized by turnpike property and the optimal policy that accomplishes the objective of keeping the CO2 levels within bound is characterized by a significant proportion of investment in public capital going to mitigation in the initial periods. When initial levels of CO2 are high, adaptation efforts also start immediately, but during the initial period, they account for a smaller proportion of government's public investment.
Keywords:
WP; policy variable; mitigation policy; adjoint variable; control-state equality constraint; infrastructure investment effort
Cover IMF Working Papers
Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Andreas Fagereng
,
Luigi Guiso
,
Mr. Davide Malacrino
, and
Luigi Pistaferri
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Keywords:
WP; private equity; expected return; long-term debt; wealth distribution; Wealth inequality; returns to wealth; net worth; heterogeneity; intergenerational mobility; financial wealth; wealth return regression; return heterogeneity; book value; portfolio return; assets return; heterogeneity channel; market value; risk tolerance; wealth share; return on assets; Income distribution; Stocks; Housing; Capital income; Income
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Alan Xiaochen Feng
, and
Nico Valckx
We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950–2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt heighten the probability of future banking crises, which significantly disrupts financial intermediation. Third, crash risk may be systematically neglected due to investors’ overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In addition, several institutional factors such as flexible exchange rates, higher financial development and inclusion are found to mitigate this impact. Finally, the tradeoff between financial inclusion and stability nuances downside risks to growth.
Keywords:
WP; debt ratio; Household debt; financial crises; neglected crash risk; leverage; macro-financial stability; standard deviation; bank stock; negative correlation; subprime crisis; financial leverage; Exchange rate arrangements; Stocks; Consumption; Commercial banks; Consumer credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Extensive Margin Adjustment of Multi-Product Firm and Risk Diversification
Carlos Carvalho
,
Mr. Gee Hee Hong
, and
Jing Zhou
Product scope adjustment is a key mechanism through which multi-product firms achieve efficient resource allocations. In this paper, we take a novel perspective to study firms’ product scope adjustment behavior through the lens of asset pricing. Using a unique panel scanner data set containing detailed information on products, matched with the financial information of their manufacturers, we find that multi-product firms with higher product turnover have lower financial risks and lower risk premia. To understand this channel, we propose a stylized model with a time-dependent (Calvo-type) product turnover rate to highlight the ’risk absorption channel’ of product scope adjustment. In response to an economy-wide shock, a firm that can adjust its product scope more flexibly shows lower excess equity returns and lower asset volatility.
Keywords:
WP; mi mathcolor; product scope; substitution effect; multi-product firms; risk diversification; firm dynamics; destruction rate; margin adjustment; creation rate; multi-product firm; Consumption; Asset prices; Stocks; Income