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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 24 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Andreas Fagereng
,
Luigi Guiso
,
Mr. Davide Malacrino
, and
Luigi Pistaferri
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Keywords:
WP; private equity; expected return; long-term debt; wealth distribution; Wealth inequality; returns to wealth; net worth; heterogeneity; intergenerational mobility; financial wealth; wealth return regression; return heterogeneity; book value; portfolio return; assets return; heterogeneity channel; market value; risk tolerance; wealth share; return on assets; Income distribution; Stocks; Housing; Capital income; Income
Cover IMF Working Papers
Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform: A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe
Michal Andrle
,
Vladimír Tomšík
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all banking sectors raised CAR ratios mainly through retained earnings. In countries where the banking sector struggled with profitability, banks have resorted to issuance of new equity or shrunk the size of their balance sheets to meet the higher capital-adequacy requirements. Worries echoed at the early stage of Basel III compilation, namely that commercial banks would shrink their balance sheet by reducing their lending to meet stricter capital requirements, did materialize only in banks struggling with profitability.
Keywords:
WP; bank; net income; balance sheet; asset; capital adequacy; Basel III; banking sector assets; cost of capital; capital adequacy ratio dynamics; increase in capital capital ratio; balance sheet growth; CAR decomposition; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Financial statements; Stocks; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Bank Size and Systemic Risk
Mr. Luc Laeven
,
Mr. Lev Ratnovski
, and
Mr. Hui Tong
The proposed SDN documents the evolution of bank size and activities over the past 20 years. It discusses whether this evolution can be explained by economies of scale or “too big to fail” subsidies. The paper then presents evidence on the extent to which bank size and market-based activities contribute to systemic risk. The paper concludes with policy messages in the area of capital regulation and activity restrictions to reduce the systemic risk posed by large banks. The analysis of the paper complements earlier Fund work, including SDN 13/04 and the recent GFSR chapter on “too big to fail” subsidies, and its policy message is in line with this earlier work.
Keywords:
SDN; large bank; bank risk; bank size; bank activity; bank characteristic; Financial Structure; Financial Regulation; Systemic risk; Personal income; Stocks; Commercial banks; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth
Mr. Markus Eberhardt
and
Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities (debt thresholds) in both the cross-country and within-country dimensions, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a nonlinear relationship between debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for common debt thresholds within countries over time.
Keywords:
WP; growth; public debt; common factor model; nonlinearity; asymmetric ARDL; GDP ratio; descriptive analysis; growth rate; debt coefficient; linear regression; Stocks; Personal income; Debt burden; Financial sector development; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inclusive Growth: Measurement and Determinants
Rahul Anand
,
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
, and
Mr. Shanaka J Peiris
We estimate a unified measure of inclusive growth for emerging markets by integrating their economic growth performance and income distribution outcomes, using data over three decades. Country distributions are calibrated by combining PPP GDP per capita and income distribution from survey data. We apply the microeconomic concept of a social mobility function at the macroeconomic level to measure inclusive growth that is closer to the absolute definition of pro-poor growth. This dynamic measure permits us to focus on inequality as well as distinguish between countries where per capita income growth was the same for the top and the bottom of the income pyramid, by accounting for the pace of growth. Our results indicate that macroeconomic stability, human capital, and structural changes are foundations for achieving inclusive growth. The role of globalization could also be positive with foreign direct investment and trade openess fostering greater inclusiveness, while financial deepening and technological change have no discernible effect.
Keywords:
WP; income; economic growth; pro-poor growth; distribution; equity; inequality; inclusive growth; distribution outcome; income growth; income contraction; value chain; low income country; equity index of income; Personal income; Income inequality; Income distribution; Stocks; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
After the Crisis: Lower Consumption Growth But Narrower Global Imbalances?
Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge
and
Mr. Ashoka Mody
We estimate consumption dynamics in the G-7 economies, paying particular attention to the possibility of precautionary behavior in the face of uncertainty. We find that in the short run, continued income uncertainty will significantly dampen consumption growth. As such, consumption in the G-7 economies is unlikely to be the engine that revives global growth. Differences in the pace and timing of consumption moderation have implications for the evolution of global imbalances. With the U.S. experiencing a sharper rise in unemployment and, perhaps, more widespread loss of financial wealth than elsewhere in the G-7, the relative rise of the U.S. savings rate is helping narrow global imbalances. But with a likely earlier recovery in the U.S., this narrowing could be short-lived. Moreover, long-term differences- in economic and financial volatility and in demographic structures-have been an important source of the imbalances and could soon reassert their prominence.
Keywords:
WP; consumption growth; stock market volatility; growth function; Lagged consumption; savings rate; consumption; savings; business cycles; current account adjustment; consumption behavior; consumption response; Disposable income; Stock markets; Income; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Frugality: Are We Fretting Too Much? Household Saving and Assets in the United States
Mr. Evan C Tanner
and
Mr. Yasser Abdih
Household savings rates in the United States have recently crept up from all-time lows. Some have suggested that a shift toward frugality will hamper GDP growth-the Keynesian "paradox of thrift." We estimate that households compensate for a fall in their asset income by saving more out of their labor income, dollar-for-dollar. In the wake of the crisis, our model predicts that such primary savings will increase, but only temporarily and modestly, as household assets stabilize. As savings flows gradually accumulate, they help rebuild corporate net worth and hence firms' capacity to make capital investments. A timely return to pre-crisis levels of capital investment would require that U.S. households save substantially more than the model predicts, starting now. Hence, we should fret that our savings rates may be too low.
Keywords:
WP; rate of return
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability in Sub-Saharan Africa
Valentina Flamini
,
Miss Liliana B Schumacher
, and
Mr. Calvin A McDonald
Bank profits are high in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to other regions. This paper uses a sample of 389 banks in 41 SSA countries to study the determinants of bank profitability. We find that apart from credit risk, higher returns on assets are associated with larger bank size, activity diversification, and private ownership. Bank returns are affected by macroeconomic variables, suggesting that macroeconomic policies that promote low inflation and stable output growth does boost credit expansion. The results also indicate moderate persistence in profitability. Causation in the Granger sense from returns on assets to capital occurs with a considerable lag, implying that high returns are not immediately retained in the form of equity increases. Thus, the paper gives some support to a policy of imposing higher capital requirements in the region in order to strengthen financial stability.
Keywords:
WP; bank profitability; bank return; bank entry barrier; bank risk; Banks; credit risk; market structure; SSA bank; bank performance; activity diversification; bank characteristic; bank spread; macroeconomic risk factors; proxy bank size; Bank soundness; Stocks; Personal income; Inflation; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Quota and Voice Reform - Stocktaking and Further Considerations, Statistical Appendices I and II, Statement by the Managing Director, and Summing Up of the Board Meeting
International Monetary Fund
At its Spring Meeting, the IMFC reiterated the importance of implementing the program of quota and voice reforms in line with the timetable set out by the Board of Governors in Singapore. The Committee welcomed the initial informal Board discussions on a new quota formula and stressed the importance of agreeing on a new formula, which should be simple and transparent and should capture members’ relative positions in the world economy. It noted that this reform would result in higher shares for dynamic economies, many of which are emerging market economies, whose weight and role in the global economy have increased. The Committee also stressed the importance of enhancing the voice and participation of low-income countries, a key issue for which is an increase in basic votes, at a minimum preserving the voting share of low-income countries. The Committee called on the Executive Board to continue its work on the reform package as a matter of priority.
Keywords:
PP; IMF document; PPP GDP; document; GDP; GDP blend; quota share; voice reform process; Purchasing power parity; Market exchange rates; International banking; Exchange rates; Gold; Global; Africa; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for the People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) reviews the residential property market and implications of an aging population. The fiscal sector impact of price fluctuations is important in Hong Kong SAR with land sales and stamp duties providing an important source of government revenue. The simulations are based on a dynamic general equilibrium system with forward-looking behavior and rational expectations. Hong Kong SAR’s revenue flows are characterized by relatively volatile nontax items.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; income; market; GDP; yield; investment income; land premium; derivative warrant; land sale; Hong Kong SAR; Aging; Land prices; Stock markets; Personal income; Stocks; Asia and Pacific; Global