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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Growth Return of Infrastructure in Latin America
Mr. Sergi Lanau
This paper examines the effects of improvements in infrastrucutre on sectoral growth and firm-level investment, focusing on six Latin American countries. Exploiting the heterogeneity in the quality of infrastructure across countries and the intrinsic variation in the dependence of sectors on infrastructure, I find that better infrastructure raises growth and investment. Improved infrastructure could yield large economic benefits. For example, if the quality of infrastructure in Colombia increased to the sample median (Czech Republic), GDP growth would increase by about 0.1 percentage points.
Keywords:
WP; infrastructure; growth; investment; investment rate; investment analysis; rate of firm; investment regression; investment plan; infrastructure investment; Transportation; Corporate investment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Stock Market Liquidity in Chile
Mr. Luis Brandao Marques
Chile has a large but relatively illiquid stock market. Global factors such as global risk appetite and monetary policy in advanced economies are key cyclical determinants of liquidity in Chilean equities. Evidence from a cross-section of emerging markets suggests strong protection of minority shareholders can help improve stock market liquitidity. Currently, illiquid in Chilean may have to pay 3½ percent more as cost of equity. Corporate governance should be improved, namely through the adoption of a stewardship code.
Keywords:
WP; market liquidity; liquidity regime; investor protection; corporate governance; liquidity premium; liquidity service; liquidity cost; aggregate liquidity; Liquidity; Stock markets; Stocks; Liquidity management; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Multilateral Aspects of Policies Affecting Capital Flows - Background Paper
International Monetary Fund
The case studies document the regulatory and supervisory dimension of episodes during the recent crisis involving capital flows that generated systemic stress. Source country regulation and supervision is the main focus, although recipient country policies also were important in some cases and are thus covered as well. Three of the case studies are motivated by systemic stress that arose from flows between advanced economies. Strong demand by foreign investors for U.S. financial products helped drive gross flows between the United States and other countries, especially Europe, and induced the U.S. financial sector to develop products that transformed their risky assets into highly-rated securities. In turn, large European banks came to depend on short-term liquidity provided from the U.S. These two-way capital flows created a complex web among markets and institutions, some regulated and some not. Against this background, case studies were prepared for European banks and U.S. money market mutual funds (MMMFs) and for German banks and U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). Another important case is that of the near failure of the American International Group (AIG), which turned out to have complex and systemically cross-border linkages with other global institutions and markets.
Keywords:
PP; net capital; financial crisis; private bank; U.S. dollar; foreign exchange; foreign currency; subprime mortgage; commercial paper; Capital flows; Capital inflows; Trade policy; Credit; Global; Baltics; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile
Mr. Leonardo Luna
,
Mr. Dale F Gray
,
Jorge Restrepo
, and
Carlos Garcia
This paper builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. The main question to be answered with the integrated model is whether or not the central bank should include explicitly the financial stability indicator in its monetary policy (interest rate) reaction function. It is found in general, that including distance-to-default (dtd) of the banking system in the central bank reaction function reduces both inflation and output volatility. Moreover, the results are robust to different model calibrations: whenever exchange-rate pass-through is higher; financial vulnerability has a larger impact on the exchange rate, as well as on GDP (or the reverse, there is more effect of GDP on bank's equity - i.e., what we call endogeneity), it is more efficient to include dtd in the reaction function.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; monetary policy; Financial vulnerability; central banking; asset volatility; bank assets; risk indicator; reaction function; monetary policy interest rate; Inflation; Asset valuation; Output gap; Financial sector risk; Stocks; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Controlling Capital? Legal Restrictions and the Asset Composition of International Financial Flows
Mahir Binici
,
Michael M. Hutchison
, and
Mr. Martin Schindler
How effective are capital account restrictions? We provide new answers based on a novel panel data set of capital controls, disaggregated by asset class and by inflows/outflows, covering 74 countries during 1995-2005. We find the estimated effects of capital controls to vary markedly across the types of capital controls, both by asset categories, by the direction of flows, and across countries' income levels. In particular, both debt and equity controls can substantially reduce outflows, with little effect on capital inflows, but only high-income countries appear able to effectively impose debt (outflow) controls. The results imply that capital controls can affect both the volume and the composition of capital flows.
Keywords:
WP; capital control; capital flow; capital outflow; controls measure; stock market cap.
Cover Departmental Papers
Who's Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the Americas
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
,
Mr. Martin Mühleisen
, and
Mr. Shaun K. Roache
In a global economy beset by concerns over a growth recession, financial volatility, and rising inflation, countries in the Western Hemisphere have been among the few bright spots in recent years. This has not come as a surprise to those following the significant progress achieved by many countries in recent years, both in macroeconomic management and on the structural and institutional front. Hence, there can be little doubt, as this book argues, that economic and financial linkages between Latin America, the United States, and other important regions of the world economy have undergone profound change.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; dividend yield; federal funds rate; real interest rate; commodity price; business cycle; sovereign bond; treasury bill; emerging market; monetary policy; nominal exchange rate; base period; bond issue; Inflation; Commodity prices; Stocks; Stock markets; Oil prices; Central America; Global; Caribbean; South America; North America
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2008, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2008, Western Hemisphere
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The main focus of this report is the outlook for the region in the face of the downturn now projected for the U.S. economy and the continuing risks that affect the global outlook. Overall the region is better placed than in the past to navigate the current financial turbulence, given reduced vulnerabilities and stronger policy frameworks. Nonetheless, the report points to risks that the global financial stress could curtail capital flows to the region and world commodity prices could fall more than expected. There are also risks arising from rising inflation and rapid private credit growth in a number of countries. The report then explores the policy options facing governments in the region, underscoring the need to preserve the gains of recent years

Keywords:
REO; IMF staff estimate; ECCU aggregate; price; e.o.p. rate; PPP GDP; dollar-weighted GDP; average inflation rates; Inflation; Commodity prices; Food prices; Stock markets; Stocks; Global; Caribbean; Central America; Western Hemisphere; South America; North America; world fuel; world food price; market participant; current liabilities; dividend yield; return distribution; terms of trade; cost of capital; world fuel price shock; equity price volatility; headline inflation rise; price change; world prices of fuel; banking system assets; equity-return movement; food price pressure; food price subcomponent; subcomponents of the CPI; food commodity price; inflation-targeting country; commodity shock
Cover Perspectivas económicas, abril de 2008
Perspectivas económicas, abril de 2008
Las Américas
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Este informe se focaliza principalmente en las perspectivas para la región en el contexto de la crisis que se proyecta para la economía de Estados Unidos y los persistentes riesgos que afectan a las perspectivas mundiales. En general, la región está en mejores condiciones que en el pasado para navegar por la actual turbulencia financiera, dado que las vulnerabilidades son menores y se han fortalecido los marcos de política económica. No obstante, el informe señala el riesgo de que la tensión financiera mundial limite los flujos de capitales hacia la región y de que los precios mundiales de las materias primas bajen más de lo previsto. También existen riesgos derivados de la creciente inflación y de la rápida expansión del crédito privado en varios países. El informe explora las opciones de política de que disponen los gobiernos de la región, subrayando la necesidad de preservar los logros alcanzados en los últimos años.

Keywords:
REO; IMF staff estimate; ECCU aggregate; price; e.o.p. rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Competition and Performance in the Polish Second Pillar
International Monetary Fund
This technical note for the Republic of Poland on competition and performance explains the Polish pension system and domestic capital market. Competition policies may need to be reviewed, in particular the combination of measures to maintain small pension funds operating while imposing strict caps on fees. If the government decides to continue pursuing policy of promoting competition in returns while reducing fees further, it may need to consider more structural changes in the second pillar, along the lines of the Swedish model.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private equity; government bond; management fee; coverage ratio; equity portfolio; variable annuity; pension fund portfolio; Pension spending; Stocks; Mutual funds; Insurance; Pensions; Europe
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
Pension Reform, Investment Restrictions and Capital Markets
Mr. Jorge Roldos
Pension reform in several emerging market countries has been associated with rapid growth in assets under management and a positive impact on the development of local securities markets. However, limitations on such development may lead to asset price distortions, bubbles, and concentration of risks. Regulatory limits on pension fund investments are assessed in light of these risks and developments in modern portfolio theory. A gradual but decisive loosening of restrictions on equity and foreign investments is recommended. Changes in these regulations ought to be coordinated with measures designed to foster the development of local securities markets as well as with macroeconomic policies.
Keywords:
PDP; emerging market; market; asset; portfolio; bond market; capital market; Pension fund regulation; asset allocation; capital market development; institutional investor; pension funds; market participant; a number of emerging market economies; portfolio restriction; Pension spending; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Securities markets; Stock markets; Stocks; Global